Seth Towns visiting Harvard this weekend https://twitter.com/seth_towns17/status/522873474637778946
May take UF out of the Leaf sweepstakes, Donovan has been heavily involved recently
As Iāve been saying for a few weeks now, Leaf too UM is not looking good
I donāt subscribe, but looks like the article was written by a Duke Insider?
I know Iām considered a āpessimistā, so if it makes you feel better, hereās this from a UM insider:
#Michigan looking like a longer shot to get one of their top 2016 basketball targets (VIP): http://t.co/wEDn0LkQy5
ā Steve Lorenz (@TremendousUM) October 22, 2014
I know I'm considered a "pessimist", so if it makes you feel better, here's this from a UM insider:#Michigan looking like a longer shot to get one of their top 2016 basketball targets (VIP): http://t.co/wEDn0LkQy5
ā Steve Lorenz (@TremendousUM) October 22, 2014
Lorenz appears to be referencing the same 9/26 write-up that you are, which, BTW, requires $ membership. Canāt read it.
Sane - that was my point; to give some context without giving away paywalled information. Point is, Leaf probably isnāt coming hereā¦
I think there will always be a difference between coaches who assemble teams vs. those coaches that simply assemble talent. Johnny Beilein has made a career of assembling teams!
Go Blue.
Chazer - the 2 donāt have to be mutually exclusive, a coach can assemble talent and a team at the same time. And, quite frankly, those are the coaches that experience the most success.
Leaf is probably coming to Michigan.
Not sure why Leaf to Michigan ever looked all that good. Weāre up against competition that weāre not likely to beat. After a visit, kids and their parents usually find something nice and positive to say, but this board tends to blow that all out of proportion, into very unrealistic expectations.
Anyone thinking that weāre going to have a big haul in 2016 is probably going to be disappointed. Teske will likely slide up the rankings and be looking quite good by signing day, but if we get even one high level recruit from this point on, Iād be delighted. And if we sign Dozier or someone else yet in 2015, we may not even have more than three spots to fill altogether (including Teske).
I think Leaf to Michigan makes sense and still looks good.
Iām curious whatās in the article (note that is not a request for someone to post it, as I respect the principle of paywalled info) because there are definitely insiders elsewhere that remain optimistic. Not sure if thatās the source of Geoffās optimism or not, but I donāt think all hope is lost (again, pending whatās in the article).
I guess my point is, unless the article said heās going to commit to Duke on his visit this weekend (which Iād bet it didnāt), not sure how much difference it makes. You are probably thinking of the correct source for my optimism, but regardless, itās still just a guess at this point by any party. Iād say at worst, weāre only in his top 4, and he hasnāt been to Michigan nor interviewed by a Michigan reporter, in a long time (relatively). I guess weāll see.
GC - I think the fact that he hasnāt talked to UM site/reporter may be indicative of where things are at the moment. Not saying that UM isnāt involved, but there is often a correlation between interest and quotes/interviews given to said school
Matt, considering TJ hasnāt recently visited UM to cause a reason to be interviewed by a Michigan reporter, I donāt take a lack of Michigan articles on him as a bad sign right now. I also think that because Michigan was the first school to have a scheduled visit from him during the basketball season (sometime in 2015 Jan/Feb, would have to check) I think there is still some reason for optimism.
Unless weāre getting signals that T.J. (or any recruit) is close to making a decision, I generally think itās premature to say any recruit is ānot likely coming to Michiganā. There can be distinct leaders, and Michigan can be not one of them (see: Tyus Battle), but even then it seems early to make such statements.
In general, thereās so much time left in the recruiting cycle for all of these 2016 prospects, I have a hard time expecting a lot of movement until more of 2015 recruiting winds down.
Well, heās supposed to take an official visit in February, and decide in March. And I know other insiders (with better sources than Lorenz) who think we are very strong for him.
I think every report (including mine above) has to be taken with a grain of salt, as he probably has no idea where heās going right now. Heās visited Michigan twice unofficially, and he fits our offense great (something his dad - who also coaches him - has said repeatedly), so it seems odd to me to say heās ālikely not coming here.ā Who really knows?
A year ago right now, most people would have said Kam Chatman is all but guaranteed to commit to Arizona.
Finally, in terms of a big 2016 haul, again, who knows? But I will say playing time at the wing positions and PG position seems to be available, whereas in 2014 and 2015, itās hard to say that. Anything is possible in recruiting, including striking out on ALL key targets, but Iād imagine we land at least one of our PG targets, one SG target, and then one other player (maybe Leaf, maybe Cook or Towns, maybe someone we havenāt even started recruiting yet). A Dozier commitment could negatively impact PG and/or SG recruiting in 2016, but who cares? We would and should take Dozier immediately and be really happy about it.
Dingo - while agree that recruiting is fluid, I have to disagree to the extent that it may be too early to say Leaf isnāt coming to UM.
From a strictly numerical standpoint, unless a given recruit is down to a final 2 that includes UM, it is in fact, more probable than not that said recruit isnāt coming to UM. In the best case scenario Leaf has a top 4 that includes UM. Math dictates that we have no more than 25% chance to get Leaf. Given our recent recruiting history against the Dukes, UCLAs, etc, and distance, I would say its more likely than not that Leaf ends up elsewhere. Just my 2 cents
Dingo - while agree that recruiting is fluid, I have to disagree to the extent that it may be too early to say Leaf isn't coming to UM.From a strictly numerical standpoint, unless a given recruit is down to a final 2 that includes UM, it is in fact, more probable than not that said recruit isnāt coming to UM. In the best case scenario Leaf has a top 4 that includes UM. Math dictates that we have no more than 25% chance to get Leaf. Given our recent recruiting history against the Dukes, UCLAs, etc, and distance, I would say its more likely than not that Leaf ends up elsewhere. Just my 2 cents
Since this is not a random event, the 1 in 4 chance is meaningless. What this boils down to is the strong belief by some that the involvement of certain schools in the recruitment of a player essentially eliminates Michigan. No need to look any further.
Sane - you most certainly have it correct, this isnāt some random eventā¦weāre dealing with Duke, UA, UCLAā¦schools we arenāt likely to beat out, which makes it even more likely that Leaf doesnāt end up at UM. In essence, itās simply more probable than not that Leaf goes elsewhere as originally stated.