2011/2012 vs 2015/2016

Michigan Basketball
1

Michigan won a share of the Big Ten title in 2011/12. Let’s compare that team with what we have for 2015. This is taking into account the almost certain departures of GRIII and McGary, along with graduating Morgan.

PG: Trey Burke (Freshman), Stu Douglass (Senior) vs PG: Walton (Junior), Albrecht (Senior)
Slight edge to the 2015/2016 squad. Walton won’t ever be sophomore Burke, but I think 3rd Walton will be better than 1st year Burke. Albrecht gets a slight edge over Douglass, too, because Douglass was not a true point guard.

SG/SF (wings): Stu Douglass (Senior), Zack Novak (Senior), Tim Hardaway Jr. (Sophomore), Matt Vogrich (Sophomore) vs
Stauskas (Senior), LeVert (Senior), Irvin (Junior), Chatman (Sophomore).
Huge edge to 2015/2016. This isn’t even debatable. You could replace any of the 15/16 guys with a freshman and still have a big advantage.

Stretch 4/PF: Zack Novak (Senior), Evan Smotrycz (Sophomore), Colton Christian (Sophomore) vs Chatman (Sophomore), Wilson (Sophomore), Bielfeldt (Senior)
I call this a wash. Chatman is more talented than anyone in the group. By their sophomore seasons,I think Chatman and Wilson will be better than Novak / Smotrcyz were and Bielfeldt basically = Christian in terms of contributions.

Big: Jordan Morgan (Sophomore), Jon Horford (Sophomore), Blake McLimans (Junior) vs Doyle (Sophomore), Donnal (Sophomore)
We can give a slight edge to 2015/2016, but Horford was pretty ineffective and McLimans was worse. Morgan played well but I think he was a product of the PG. I see no reason Doyle/Donnal can’t replicate their production.

So, like I said, we aren’t screwed if we don’t land an elite Big.

2

Being honest when I say this, regular season big ten championships don’t really mean much in the grand scheme of things in contemporary times.The conference tourneys dilute the value of any regular season championships, there is certainly much more TV coverage and national attention during the conference tourney relative to regular season games. More importantly, the dance is what really matters, that’s where a team earns respect from other teams, coaches, media, and recruits. For example, when we won the b10 champ and subsequently lost in the first round, what impact did that conf champ really have?

3

You’re taking an anomally year and using it as some kind of example. A team with that talent level does not win the B1G 9/10 times. We had a fair share of luck and a heck of a coaching job. Can’t expect to compete consistently with that type of roster. Why not be proactive and circumvent it by getting elite talent that isn’t redundant?

4

You act like I don’t want elite talent. I do as much as the next guy does. Elite talent doesn’t grow on trees and (like you said) elite talent is going to be more apt to play at Blue Blood type schools (Kansas, Kentucky, Duke, etc.). Just because Michigan will not be elite across the board, does not mean the program is doomed. With Walton/Albrecht/Stauskas/LeVert/Irvin/Chatman, Michigan will have one of the best back courts in the nation. You can pair an elite back court with an average front court and still put a really, really, good product out there.

If Stone, Zimmerman, etc. etc. want to come to Michigan, absolutely, sign them up. I just don’t think Michigan is screwed if we don’t land a guy like that.

5
You're taking an anomally year and using it as some kind of example. A team with that talent level does not win the B1G 9/10 times. We had a fair share of luck and a heck of a coaching job. Can't expect to compete consistently with that type of roster. Why not be proactive and circumvent it by getting elite talent that isn't redundant?

If I didn’t know better, I would’ve thought I actually wrote this

6

I never said we would be doomed. I think we will compete hard every year under JB. My point is that to take the next step we have to be wise in who we offer scholarships.

I worry when I see us going after a 6’7’’ perimeter bigman and tons of guards but not one true big that we have a shot at getting. JB doesn’t even try to take a diamond in the rough and develop them. Remember Udoh?

I go to OSU board and you can tell they are spoiled by recruiting and tons of S16/E8. We can do the same, maybe better since I think JB> Matta but not by addressing holes in our roster. Next year is going to be a great year with the talent we have coming back (hopefully Nik and McGary return). Let’s keep it up!

7

So what teams are at that “next step” level? Surely teams like Duke, North Carolina, and Syracuse are, so why don’t they have elite bigs? Those are schools with better coaches and better history than Michigan, so why don’t they have “defensive anchors”?

Michigan has already taken the next step by landing recruits like McGary, GRIII, and Irvin. These are three players that were all worthy of McDonald’s All American selections. Michigan will never be on duke/kentucky/kansas level, so drop those expectations. That would be like expecting Kansas State to recruit as well as Michigan in football.

And JB doesn’t take a chance on diamonds in the rough? What about offering D J Wilson who missed his junior year? What about offering Ricky Doyle who didn’t play AAU? What about offering unknowns (outside of the area) Jordan Morgan and Jon Horford? Heck, McLimans was suppose to be a diamond in the rough due to his length and ability to shoot.

What about diamonds in the rough like THJ and Burke? Douglass and Novak? You act line Beilein is some sort of weak recruiter when all he’s proven is that he knows what he’s doing.

8

Duke and North Carolina are not elite this year. When they were elite, they usually have elite bigmen.

9

That is part of my point. If teams like Duke and North Carolina can’t even consistently put elite Bigs on the court, then how can we EXPECT it? If we land an elite big, awesome. We shouldn’t EXPECT to, though.

I’ve already listed teams that are really good without elite bigs. There are really good teams without elite bigs every year. How did Butler make back to back NC games without an elite big?

10

Because Duke and North Carolina usually have elite bigmen. They have down years significantly less than anyone else. If OSU can recruit well then so can we.

You don’t understand the concept of outliers and anomalies.

11

Guestavo, I could copy and paste your comments from the Wilson thread and you would be debating yourself. Try to stay consistent.

12

“I do agree, as most on here do, but there aren’t a ton of defensive anchors out there that can come in ready without a year or two of development and those that are, always go to the bluebloods. We have to get there first and until then stay optimistic.”

That is my point. We can’t expect to out recruit Duke/Kentucky, as nice as it would be.

13

You’re arguing something quite different. That was in reference to next year. We will have Mitch and Horford. This is about the year after that. We can’t expect to get anchors every year, no, but every 3 years is fairly reasonable, no?

14

So you agree that it’s hard for us to land elite bigs over Kentucky, Duke, Kansas, etc. for next year, but not the 2015 class? Is Kentucky going to take a year off recruiting, or what?

Every 3rd year is reasonable. I had said every recruit cycle (ie. every 4 years), so we are kind in agreement there. I think there are twice as many elite PGs as Bigs, which is why we expect to land an elite PG about every 2 years. It is a lot harder to land elite bigs at that rate, though, so I’m not going to condemn our team for not landing one.

Like Ben said, we get the best players we can. Zimmerman, Stone, etc. have their choice on where they want to go. I’d take them in a heartbeat if they wanted to come to Michigan, but I expect them to go elsewhere. Until we land an elite big, we can “settle” for landing elite players at other positions and average bigs.

15

Yes, teams like Duke, Kansas, Kentucky do have off years where they don’t have room to sign everyone.

We got Mitch in 2012. It is reasonable to want a true big, not ELITE, just a post player who has size, rebounds, blocks shots and has upside with development. There are tons of those.

We might not get Anthony Davis types but we can do better than 6’7’’ PF who like to shoot threes and as much as I love them, Morgan and Horford.

16
It is reasonable to want a true big, not ELITE, just a post player who has size, rebounds, blocks shots and has upside with development. There are tons of those.

Tons? Name them in the 2013 and 2014 class. There aren’t as many as you make it sound. Also, I think both Donnal and Doyle project to be better overall than Morgan and Horford.

17
It is reasonable to want a true big, not ELITE, just a post player who has size, rebounds, blocks shots and has upside with development. There are tons of those.

Tons? Name them in the 2013 and 2014 class. There aren’t as many as you make it sound. Also, I think both Donnal and Doyle project to be better overall than Morgan and Horford.

The 2013 and 2014 composite rankings are up. I can assure you there are a considerale amoutn of true bigs in both classes from top to bottom. I think Donnal and Doyle will be better offensively than Morgan and Horford but not in the same stratosphere defensively.

18

So in other words, you don’t know? I want to know the 2013 and 2014 centers that possess the traits you say are so common. If there are “tons” of guys with size, who rebound, and block shots, I’m sure you can name some. If a bum (so you guys make it sound) like Donnal can crack the ESPN top 100, how many guys with size, can rebound, block shots, with upside can there be?

19

There are tons of recruiting services, skim through them. No one said Donnal is a bum, just need another bigman who can provide things that he cannot.

20

I’ll just take your word that there are “tons”.

Anyways, Kansas is on the ropes at home even with their defensive anchor :stuck_out_tongue: