I’m not that concerned about replacing Ivey. Figuring out how to make Ivey fit was a struggle for them all of last year. They never really figured it out except for flashes here and there. This will be more of a vintage Painter team that doesn’t have to try to solve that conundrum of having an other worldly talent who doesn’t fit your system.
If Edey can get to 25+mpg, they’ll be really good.
Yeah, I think this is a “typical” Painter team as long as Edey can play more than 20 minutes per game.
Can you square this sentence up with the belief that Painter is a great coach compared to the rest of the conference? I tend to agree that Painter’s good but “not figuring out Ivey” never made any sense to me last year.
It’s like how Izzo plays Ben Carter over Jaren Jackson but makes a Final Four because of Kenny Goins and Matt Mcquaid. Some coaches are great in their comfort zone.
Izzo has like 100 final fours and Matt Painter has zero
I like painter a lot and I assume Purdue will be there usual good self this year, but I have this weird feeling that the shine came off painter a bit in the last couple years. They were and I don’t have the stats in front of me, but considering the talent they had and the schedules they had it felt like the left something on the table.
Now they lost several members of their team including an NBA lottery pick so I just don’t know what they’re sealing is
I hope Lindy’s is right but kind of hard to think they’re not out to lunch calling the B1G the best conference and Indiana and Michigan as both top 7 teams.
I think belief in Painter is fine but acting like replacing Jaden Ivey, Trevion Williams, Sasha Stefanovic and Eric Hunter - who combined for 52% of the total team’s minutes played, 61% of the team’s total points scored (45.9 PPG) and 69% of the team’s total assists (11.1 APG) with Ethan Morton, Brandon Newman, Mason Gillis and Caleb Furst won’t be a massive massive downgrade is a stretch IMO.
I just think that Ivey was generally a terrible fit for their system. He needed to play in a transition offense and he wasn’t very disciplined defensively. Purdue plays in the half court, doesn’t run many ball screens and requires defensive discipline.
He was obviously awesome but Purdue had to work to fit him in outside of its identity. It would be like if Hunter Dickinson was on a Beilein team.
I think that generally Furst, Trey Kaufman, Brandon Newman, David Jenkins, Ethan Morton are a tier above the role players on a team like Rutgers. A lot of former top-100 recruits, guys with experience in the system, etc.
A tier above Mawot Mag, Aundre Hyatt, Jalen Miller, Dean Reiber, whoever.
And I think Edey will be a legit POTY candidate in the league and the pieces fit fairly well around him.
Seven straight top 25 finishes on KenPom. 12+ Big Ten wins in six of those seven seasons.
I know there were some NCAA Tournament upsets in there but they were also a crazy finish away from the Final Four during that stretch too.
I kind of like Purdue to win the regular season because they know how they want to play (and unlike Indiana that style has won games). Feels like a lot of the other teams will be dropping games while figuring themselves out.
Purdue knows what they want. The upside is small so I wouldn’t bet on even a Sweet 16, but the B10 might not have any sweet 16 teams so (shrugs).
If we are discussing their placement relative to other conference opponents who is not on paper experiencing a “massive downgrade i[y]o”
Like I know we like to make fun of Geo Baker on this blog (as do I) but there is a reason why Geo Baker had to be Geo Baker and it’s kind of what they’re facing now right (except they may be asking Geo to create 18 shots for himself instead of 12 this year)?
I am not totally on board with IU. They have a good core of TJD, Johnson, and Thompson but beyond those 3 having to be consistent every game you have a lot of players that are up and down with their game, or freshman expected to play big roles.
Then there is shooting. IU never tends to be a good shooting team, even when they bring in shooters. I see them having 2-3 non-conference losses.
I don’t think many people here are.
I think my biggest disagreement on Rutgers is just with Mulcahy. Like he did average 10 and 6 assists last year relatively efficiently to a ton of the guys on the list, and as everyone notes he was a 3rd/4th option at best. I don’t think we know what he will look like with higher usage but his floor is already higher than a lot of the competitors we’re projecting here.
He already played 80% of minutes and used 20% of possessions and finished with a 101.3 ORtg and the highest turnover rate in conference play. Not sure anyone should be excited about him using more possesions.
Agree to disagree. Both on where MSU fits into this relative to Rutgers and Hoggard relative to Mulcahy.
Hoggard used 25% of possessions, doesn’t have a top 5 player in the conference as a lob catch threat like Omoruyi and had a worse ORtg than Mulcahy. And his two primary positional competitors are back, one a potential breakout sophomore whereas there is very clear increased opportunity for Mulcahy. There’s a very real chance the minutes split that Hoggard/Walker/Akins had last year doesnt shift a ton more toward Hoggard and Walker.
From Feb 1 through end of season Mulcahy was awesome. 12.5/5.8/4.2 on 53% from the field and 48% from three. In that same stretch, when Hoggard started playing 30+ minutes more often, he averaged 7.4/4.8/2.7 on 43% from the field and 17% from three. That’s not a hot 5 game sample size IMO, that’s the majority of conference and postseason play and a sign of what I expect could come next.
I love that somehow thinking Mulcahy is not very good has led to me being a big AJ Hoggard guy. I’d personally rather have Tyson Walker running my team compared to AJ, I like his game a bit better but the way MSU sets up I imagine Hoggard takes the bigger role.
I think the point with MSU is that they have 2 guys in that range, not one. I’d definitely rather have Hoggard+Walker than just Mulcahy.
Akins to me isn’t really in the 1 conversation this year given the roster breakdown.
Maybe Mulcahy is awesome but it is Rutgers. The offensive upside is already so low that I just can’t get that excited about a turnover-prone lead guard who doesn’t shoot it from 3.
What does a Rutgers offense that finished 9th in the Big Ten last year look like without its two decent offensive players?
Tier 3 is lonely and missing Bae Buckeye, who has been loyal for several years (and seems likely to be faithful to me).