The State of UM Basketball


#1450

“We NEED 25 mpg from him at least and that’s a gigantic leap”

We expected less than that from Wilson coming off of last year and we got even more. And he made a position switch to boot.


#1451

Was Wilson’s emergence not one of the most incredible transformations we’ve seen? He went from basically forgotten to an NBA prospect. I’m not sure you can just bank on that every year.


#1452

Both amazing, but I still give the edge to Stauskas on incredible transformation.

Felt like we all knew DJ COULD be really good if he put it together. Stauskas one year change was unreal too. From Just A Shooter to alpha dog, ball in his hands, PnR NBA talent.


#1453

I don’t know. I think Stauskas showed way more in high school and during his freshman year than DJ did during high school and his first two years on campus. I didn’t expect Stauskas to be so dominant as a sophomore, but he I’d at least showed that skillset. Prior to this year, we last saw DJ as an absurdly high-usage, low-efficiency 5 who wasn’t particularly good at anything. He didn’t even look particularly athletic in his limited stretches of game time.


#1454

Right, so if Wilson can do that, it isn’t so hard to expect a second year guy like Simpson to be able to play 25 minutes a night. No one said we expect him to be sophomore Trey Burke.


#1455

Oh yeah, don’t get me wrong DJ had the biggest transformation as far as coming out of nowhere to fringe first round. I just think you take Stauskas from good freshmen to GREAT sophomore was a bigger leap than DJ took.

DJ had the size and tools, he was also a year older. We’re talking two unbelievable transformations though so can’t go wrong picking either one.


#1456

That’s rather flimsy logic there. Devoid of other information, one player’s development is not a good indicator of another player’s development ---- and even less so when they play totally different positions.

Personally, I happen to think Simpson will be an average B1G caliber starting PG next year. Based on his HS/Summer League pedigree, plus the raw ability he showed in limited minutes this past season, plus Coach Sanderson’s track record of improving player strength/conditioning, plus the general difficulty most freshmen have with Beilein’s system (and ability to make significant strides within the system between Year 1 & Year 2). The total picture seems to indicate a player who should be about league average next season ---- but until he proves it, PG is still the largest question mark for next season’s team, especially since there isn’t an experienced #2 option if Simpson struggles.


#1457

Good, so we are in agreement then. Simpson should be able to play at least 25 minutes next year at a level of at least average B1G point guard.


#1458

7 assists per game would be elite. http://stats.washingtonpost.com/cbk/leaders.asp?conf=003&stat=20
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/individual/140
5 seems a more likely high end of the range.


#1459

I think Xavier Is gonna catch most by surprise and have a lot of dimes. His shot looked horrible though and that could hurt.

I don’t think he’s that bad of a shooter. He just needs to get comfy out there and he will start to shoot better. I don’t see him ever being elite but 35 percent is a decent goal from deep. He was missing so badly it had to be nerves.


#1460

X’s comfort level is going to depend on how much we allow him to do what he’s created to do…push the pace. He’s going to have to grow in the offense but if JB allows them to get out more he’ll be fine. We have the horses now like we’ve not had since we had GR3 and Nik on the wings.


#1461

I don’t think Beilein held the team back from running in transition. In fact, if memory serves me correct, I think Beilein passed comments in January/early February about wanting to get out in transition more and create some easy baskets?

The defense tends to hold back transition offense more than the coaches; easiest to run when you get a stop on defense — turnover or rebound/quick outlet. It is more challenging to counter in transition off a made basket. And this season as UM’s defense improved down the stretch, Walton was able to create more with long lead passes.


#1462

We currently stand at one open scholarship for 2017. My guess is: Wagner and Wilson both return, Bamba goes somewhere else and we use the scholarship on a guard, preferably a point guard.


#1463

Seems like an ideal situation to me. Although, I do believe Simpson is going to be pretty good, another option never hurts. If another guy comes in and beats out Simpson, that’s just better for us.


#1464

I think any of the grad transfers that we are looking at would undoubtedly be a great addition because, at the bare minimum, they bring with them competition. That, though, is probably the difficult selling point (other than maybe for PGs, since we aren’t returning a starter there), does the grad transfer want to compete for minutes, or walk into ‘guaranteed’ minutes. Sure seems that players like Alstork, Daniels, and Simmons–who think it is at least possible that they are NBA/next-level talents–should expect that they could beat out X, and maybe MAAR/CM/Duncan, for minutes.

But hopefully Bamba also knows he will get minutes with us and choses to blow everyones’ minds by wearing the Maize and Blue :grinning:


#1465

I agree about Simpson being good. We would be fine with him next year. But, if we can land an experienced grad transfer point guard, we could go from being a good team to a very good team. Such a player could expect to play 25-30 minutes on a very good team.


#1466

Yes sir. I don’t think he will be a good/great shooter but I love his passing and quickness. He’s good at running the fast break and his defense is already great. I’m very confident with him as a starter.


#1467

Until Walton went beast mode in February we would’ve been much better off with a 28/12 split at pg minutes. Unless x or another guard are late season Walton (where we squeal with glee) it’ll be nice to have a 2:1 split at the 1 instead of a 4/5:1. For defense and late games especially.


#1468

I look at it this way(with Wilson/Wagner on the team). Simpson is a better defender and than Walton. Matthews is a better defender than Irvin. This will be the entire starting units second year with Donlon working with them on defense. I believe our offense will decline a little from last year but our defense will be better then our defense from last year. Simpson looks to pass more and the development of Wilson and Wagner make that a great ability for next year. Wilson, Wagner, Matthews, MAAR are all finishers and we need someone to get them the ball. Simpson is a great option to have. Daniel would also be a great option due to his passing ability. We won’t have a shortage of finishers next year but it’ll be guys getting them the ball that we neee consistency out of.


#1469

The jury is still out on Simpsons defense as a 28-30 minute player, IMO. While he is a willing defender and works extremely hard at it, his physical limitations are going to be tested by bigger posting - straight line driving guards.

I’ll never forget Glynn Watson’s eyes lighting up when he took him two consecutive times with ease for layups.

I’m hopeful it won’t be a glaring issue, but I’m still skeptical. He is so darn tiny. 5’8" at most.