I really believe, if we are strong in the tournament, we will outpace the seeding range that bracketologists/ analysts seem to think is possible for Michigan. Advanced stats and the widespread buzz around Michigan is going to give us an extra boost…Unless we lay an egg in a tournament game…
If, in the BTT, we can get a blowout and a comfortable win or two–and nothing embarrassing, then–I believe we will get a better seeding than most anticipate…
Certainly a second win over Purdue would have the potential to move us into something like a #7 seed, especially if we win a game after that.
The most likely scenario - I hate to say - is a win over Illinois, and a competitive loss to Purdue, which probably keeps us in the 8/9 range.
I suppose there are a few potential #1 seeds who we could match up decently with. Oregon doesn’t scare me, Kansas lacks a big man and they almost always choke in the tourney, and I don’t know how proven Gonzaga really is. Certainly we would be a substantial underdog in any of those games, but I think we could compete. I have no interest in a rematch with UCLA, and Arizona would not be a good matchup.
So much depends on what all the other teams do.
I don’t understand this logic? Wilson failed as a Center in Michigan’s system. He hasn’t shown the ability to defend strong bigs in the post, nor has he shown the ability to create offense out of post-up opportunities? Wilson’s shot blocking comes more on help-side chances than straight-up 1-on-1 defense.
He’s a really good fit as a tall wing, why try to re-shoehorn him back as a bad Center? If an opponent goes “small ball” and plays without a Center, then matching the “small ball” lineup is OK. But that’s a different scenario than putting Wilson back at the “5” for normal rotations.
(And this says nothing about Robinson’s below average rebounding from the big wing spot — Wilson as a below average rebounding Center plus Robinson as a below average rebounder defending an opponent’s “4” seems like a bad recipe on the defensive glass. Wagner or a motivated Donnal at the Center spot can mask more of Robinson’s deficiencies on the glass and allow Irvin & Walton a better chance to help out with rebounding.)
Thanks or posting this. Have been wondering about this for a while
To be fair, JB put DJ in for Mark, during the Purdue game. I definitely dont think DJ needs to/should be much backup 5, but in a pinch for defensive purposes, he did pretty well against the conference’s best center duo.
When people are challenged they can respond…The whole team is an example of that. We have plenty of options at the five…Just saying DJ has shown an improvement with his back to the basket this year…can he not continue to develop this part of his game? What a great player he could become if given more opportunities.
Wilson’s been more effective back to the basket because he’s 6-10 matched up more with 6-8 wings than he is with 6-10/6-11 centers.
Expecting him to “rise to the challenge” of playing more Center vs other legit B1G/PowerConference Centers is being way too optimistic, in my opinion. And putting him in a position to fail — much like Zak Irvin isn’t really cut out to facilitate an offense and was put in a bad situation when asked to do so. In Irvin’s case the team didn’t really have other options. In Wilson’s case you have better options.
As for the Purdue game, yes, give Wilson full marks for holding his own. But at the same time realize it came in the 2nd Half with UM up double-digits (replaced Donnal with13:00 left and Michigan +13 — PUR had Swanigan on the bench and PUR grabbed offensive rebounds on its next two possessions but Michigan matched PUR’s scoring and kept the game +13). Purdue’s offense its first 9 possessions after Wilson replaced Donnal was almost exclusively perimeter jumpers ---- because it was down big and looking for a quick comeback. Haas is not easy to deal with and Swanigan did replace Haas while Wilson was playing the “5” … again, I’ll give him credit, but asterisk it due to game circumstances.
I like Wilson; his development has been huge for UM. But keep grounded to who he is and who he isn’t — he is a 3rd year player who failed as a post before thriving on the perimeter this year. Trying to shoehorn him back to a post player seems as ill-fated as trying to shoehorn Irvin into a point-forward facilitator.
I taped the game and I’m watching it now. For a team that won my 20 we didn’t look great for large stretches of the game.
We hit a lot of tough shots, missed a lot of wide open guys or didn’t swing to the open guy, during Illinois first half run too our d was really bad and we got lucky they can’t shoot and missed a few chances to get the lead down to two possessions.
I felt like maar and zak both took a lot of tough shots , luckily zak hit his. I’d prefer they both clean those up. Maar in particular had guys open he missed while taking those. Against Purdue or better teams we can’t afford to take those and win. Zak usually won’t hit some of those. I am glad both are confident but it’s about getting the best look. Controlled aggression
As a whole both had good days. Maar just seemed to always get a basket when we need a tough one as usual
I’d still like to see a lot more looks for Wilson and moe. Their both very good offensively and tough match ups. I’d love to see their touches and shot numbers being higher.
We need to stop the droughts. It’s a huge theme of beleins offense/ teams cause of the three ball. I think we still need to not force as many threes and get a few more post up possessions a game, fast breaks, and more slashes. Just a little bit more balance and aggression to the hoop will work wonders. Then those threes are open all of a sudden.
What’s again earth to dj. Play with more energy on both sides! Look to score and create. He’s such s tough match up, he needs a bigger role And to look to score and grAb o boards. Especially in those droughts. Hitting him on the post is perfect to stop those runs and to get a higher percentage look at the rim.
Glad we kept looking for and hitting the back door. Guys are open a lot as teams overplay the perimeter make them pay for easy twos. Then it creates space for the 3.
The d was solid. The team although not the best defensively is much improved, and they make up for high percentages with their turnovers. We really get a ton of steals. Counters our weak interior d. I love it.
I can’t wait for the recap to comment haha. I’m just so happy for these group of guys and this team. As a fan, I’m enjoying watching them so dang much.
It’s like every guy who starts to struggle is coming up with big moments. It was Zak and DJ today. Tomorrow it could be Duncan.
They’re such awesome battlers, so dang gritty, and a TEAM.
Let’s comment here
You know the best part we played poorly and beat the number 13 team in the country. I’ve been holding my toungue so I don’t appear to much of a homer but I’ve felt like we are the best big ten team and we are capable of going to the final four.
Talent wise we are that good. We still keep making too mAny bonehead mistakes though. When the competition heats up we can’t just throw the ball away over and over.
How many fast breaks did we blow? How many open guys did we miss on the three line? We gotta clean those up and get baskets on all of those.
Up to 23 overall in the country on KenPom and 70 on defense.
Isn’t that amazing though?
Like you said they beat the #13 team in the country amid all those mistakes and missed shots. WE dictate the mismatches now and WE dictate who to go through. Combine that with the team defense revolution and it’s a thing of beauty now.
16 team fouls, 13 turnovers. Shot 24% from three and only made 6. Mo in foul trouble. Walton shot poorly. Irvin played all 45 minutes. But we outrebounded them. Out blocked them. That’s the biggest, toughest, best team in the big ten. We beat them twice.
Oh and how fun is it going to be to have the best front court in the league the next two years (unless Pat Riley takes DJ from us early after today…kidding…I think…)
This is a dangerous, exciting, skilled, fun to watch team that plays as together as any JB team I’ve seen. We could lose in the first round of the NCAA tourney. But we could do much more. And I can’t wait to keep watching
Very well said!
Up to #20 in BPI BEFORE considering today’s win. hope the RPI is one piece, but only one piece of the story b/c the others would slot us higher. Would like to get to a 6, and while Lunardi and the RPI heads would probably scoff at that, the “rankings since OSU” post Reegs shared makes the recency argument very well. Us and three one seeds top4 and we have played our hardest games.
I’ll also add, we beat the refs today too. I know we got some make up calls and bad calls for us mixed in, but overall the refs were brutal. Awful, awful calls in the paint area.
Went something like 1-14 from deep in the 2nd. Crazy.