IMO, an AdjD of 139 sucks.
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I preface this by saying I have no horse in this race. To say that the #139 AdjD is anything other than bad is to defy all logic and common sense.
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Try it for years, be correct about it, have people admit it finally, then be called out for patting yourself on the back after years of name callingâŚyep, sounds about right
I am a very glass-half-full guy with all my teams. Itâs weird to get called out for being too critical during a debate where Iâm on the glass-half-full side.
Like, during that whole back and forth between me and G⌠the most egregious think hhunt1 read was me saying the defense has sucked this year?
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Hey, I know the feeling. In a long and detailed post, with many superlatives about DJ Wilson, in which I proceeded to admit he is my favorite player on the teamâŚI was crucified for labeling him above average rather than good. I never thought Iâd be called out for my fondness of DJ Wilson. But then again, I guess I underestimate the attention to fine detail around these parts lol
These are the incredibly small list of teams that give UM hope to make a deep run with some improvement on either end, 2 of which are JB teams. Note the guard play. I bolded the teams > adjO 10 and italicized teams > adjD 88 :
2002 Elite 8:
Team With Worst Defense: Mizzou #83, adjO 12 (Kareem Rush)
2003 Final 4:
Team With Worst Defense: Marquette #101, adjO 1 (Dwayne Wade)
2004 Elite 8:
Team With Worst Defense: Alabama #74 adjO 17
2005 Elite 8:
Team With Worst Defense: West Virginia #92 adjO 21 (JB and Kevin Pittsnoggle)
2011 Final 4:
Team With Worst Defense: VCU #88 adjO 38
2012 Elite 8:
Team With Worst Defense: Florida #81 adjO 3 (Bradley Beal and Kenny Boyton)
2014 Elite 8:
Team With Worst Defense: Michigan #88 adjO 3 (Nik, Caris and GR3)
2015 Elite 8:
Team With Worst Defense: Notre Dame #102 adjO 2 (Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson)
2016 Elite 8:
Team With Worst Defense: Notre Dame #158 adjO 9 (Demetrius Jackson)
NOTES
The team with the worst defense to reach the final 4 since 2002 was the Wade-led Marquette squad from 2003 (#101). That team BARELY made it out of the first two rounds, and then was blasted in the national semis. The second worst was VCU in 2011 (#88) which doesnât surprise me. Shaka Smart at VCU played a full court press defense that was relentless and was bound to cough up a lot of easy shots. However, if you couldnât handle it well, as Kansas failed to in the elite 8, it could cause problems. The next worst defense was the 2013 Michigan team (#39). I can tell you that most of the teams that made the final 4 with bad to mediocre offensive numbers did so because they had super elite defenses (like Pitinoâs Louisville teams). If you are a bit unbalanced offensively and defensively, itâs better to have an elite defense if you have final 4 aspirations.
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Again I have no horse in this race. But according to KenPom its almost a given that you need at least a good defense to win a championship, and likely at least a good offense as well. But when push comes to shove, the profile of championship teams in the KP era has favored elite defenses over elite offenses hands down.
Just talking deep runs for uneven teams with elite offenses and bad defenses. Pro level guard play/ shot creators seems to be almost necessary. Alabama and West Virginia seem to give this team the most hope. Yeah, the defense needs to marginally improve but unbalanced teams with elite offenses overwhelmingly have elite shot creators. In my opinion, its easier for JB to recruit an elite shot creator or two than it would be for him to craft a good to great defense.
That list is great stuff. I donât think weâre far behind a few of those teams but would obviously need a very favorable draw to have a chance. I think JBâs Pittsnoggle team might be the best comparison
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Until recently Iâd have said, okayâthe cliche is that defenses win championships, in hoop AS in football. But Beilein does NOT emphasize D; he has a unique approachâletâs see if he can beat the odds! And getting to the NC, getting beaten by people who were induced to attend their school with prostitutes and marijuana brownies (i.e. who should have their championship vacated) wasâIMOâfantastic, tending to suggest it COULD be done.
But teams, like players and coaches, arenât static; they evolve. This year Beilein brought in Donlon and slowly but surely the team is guarding better. Iâd lay much better than even odds that weâre going to see improved defenses from Michigan during Beileinâs remaining tenure. Past performance and future results are different animals, as the Wall Street guys say. It seems pointless to insist theyâre gonna suck forever, to try to show this statistically, when thatâs just not something you can adduce.
Where did I say they would suck forever? I said it is extremely more likely and much easier for JB to create an elite offense with shot creators than one with a good defense. The pieces are there next year for a good D : X, CM, DJ, Teske, MAAR but Iâm not confident.
I actually love the 2016 ND comp, which is funny since we were so close to bouncing them from the tournament/that list, and then claiming the spot on the list as our own. Jackson was a better creator than Zak is, 4.7 assists/game vs 3.5 assists/game, but I still think the teams are built similarly: 4 shoots + a center (Augustine was a better defender/rebounder and Mo is a better scorer).
Yeah, they are the closest in terms of Kenpom profile and system but I wonder about the gap between Jackson and Irvin/Walton.
I agree, youâd rather have a stud that you can count on in crunch/tourney time to make a play themselves or absorb pressure/attention and create an easy play for a teammate. Hopefully, as the past few games would suggest is possible, Zak and Walton are developing the mind-set, even if theyâre short on track-record and pure ability.
Iâve been down on those guys a little myself at times, and theyâre not future NBA stars. But I bet that if you looked at how many games they have won for us down the stretchâadmittedly maybe a somewhat subjective issueâthey both come out pretty good.
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Donât think anyone is saying Irvin/Walton are bad. Heck, the argument started because I said this years team did in fact have shot creators in Irvin/Walton. The comparison is to teams with elite offenses/bad defenses and their shot creators which are overwhelmingly of the NBA variety. Trust me, I hope Irvin/Walton go nuts in the tourney.
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Irvin and Walton are sufficient as creators on a bubble team but the offense is not fine and needs elite shot creation for JBâs system to run optimally, good defense or not. Which is scary because there is a good chance we miss their presence next year.
The sad part is that without Derrick Walton we lose this game by 30
If we get something close to this Walton for the rest of the season, I feel pretty comfortable making the tournament. I donât expect Irvin and DJ to have games like this too many more times.
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