About 30th.
With an offense as good as 2014’s they’d be ranked 24th.
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Room for improvement on both sides of the court, it seems.
That’s just not the argument, though. It was merely “Would a marginally better defense get us off the bubble?” Just answer that question. If you think “no,” that’s totally fine, and everyone will agree to disagree. But you changed the question to something drastically different.[quote=“guestavo1, post:625, topic:2183, full:true”]
Room for improvement on both sides of the court, it seems.
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Of course, but there’s only 9 spots to make up on O, and 137 to make up on D. I get that you think we would need to improve on both sides, in order to have the potential to “make some noise” in the tournament, that’s just not what the argument was.
Of course, but there’s only 9 spots to make up on O, and 137 to make up on D.
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I didn’t “change the question.” I replied to Hail stating the offense was fine. It clearly has room for improvement.
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JB’s ceiling on D is not as high as on offense. We’ve seen JB have elite offenses and go far but we’ve never seen sub 30 adjD which is what he’d need with the current offense to look elite season long. And my original argument was that the defense was not the overwhelming reason for a mediocre team because I refuted “the offense is fine” and could be much more dynamic. I never said the defense isn’t bad but clearly significantly more has to happen than slightly improving defensively.
There’s too many inconsistencies to try to clear this up. I thought–considering our defense appears to be improving and the offense is already operating better than anyone anticipated–the argument of just how much does our defense need to improve, in order to get us off the bubble (the most realistic goal, at the moment) was an interesting one, so I wanted to try to help get the argument back on track.
If you want to argue that improving the offense to elite, versus improving the defense to mediocre, is the best way to improve the team, I guess that’s a debate in and of itself.
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Well, the original debate was whether creators were needed at all, in the context of next year. MHoops said this year was proof that it might not be. I disagreed because I view Walton and Irvin as creators and key reasons behind the #10 adj0 but then I brought up 2014 to illustrate the difference elite shot creators can do for an offense and overall team success.
I never said the offense isn’t reasonable considering THIS ROSTER. I don’t think the roster is constructed as well as it could be to have the type of offense that is “fine” given JB’s strengths as a coach.
Okay, I now follow the argument thread that you were making; I just misunderstood the basis of it all.
Walton and Zak are definitely our creators, and that facet of their game will likely be missed next year, at least initially. And also yes, having an elite/well-above average creator would make this offense elite, as JB has proven in the past. Though equating a “fine” JB offense to above better than top 10 seems pretty stringent to me. Yeah, JB has had the #1 offense, but that’s literally the pinnacle of his (or anybody else’s) offense.
I agree, it is stringent but we’ve seen him do it multiple times. With an adjO of 10, he’d need his best defense ever to be in similar range as the 13 or 14 teams and we’ve never see him coach such a defense. Thats why I don’t think the offense is fine where its at nor do I think citing this season as a reason shot creators aren’t vital is reasonable. More balanced coaches (offense/defense) would love a adjO of 10 but JB makes his living on offense and thus needs a higher criteria.
What would we be ranked on kenpom with the 10th offense like we have now but with a top 40 defense like in 2011 and 2013?
I’m actually in agreement with both you guys strangly which I think says a lot about our offensive potential. The numbers they have put up on offense have been good and yet i think they could improve a lot. Until the other night I thought they hadn’t been playing that great and missing a lot of chances on offense / not using their talents properly and yet statistically they were doing well. I really think it shows they could be a offensive force if they get it together.
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In the teens so not elite like 13, 14 but fine. The thing is does anyone believe that 11,13 is achievable defensively going forward? 11 was such an anomaly and 13 will go down as JB’s best roster ever so I don’t but 14 seems more replicable.
BYU and Washington were the closest to what you just posed in 2011. BYU 3 seed 11th in Ken Pom, Washington 7 seed 16th in Ken Pom. BYU sweet sixteen, Washington out in round 2. In 2013 the closest example would be Minnesota 20th in Ken Pom 11th seed in tournament out in round 2.
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MSU was AdjO 11th and AdjD 48th heading into the 2014 tournament and they got a 5 seed.
MSU was 13 in adj0 and 21 in adjD at the end of 2014…picking weird points in the season when we have the full data is odd.
JB would have to reconstruct this roster and REALLY focus on defense to ever touch a adjD 48 again (something he has only done twice and one of those rosters was filled with pros) but is maybe a piece or two away from a historical kenpom offense.
‘The offense is fine. The defense sucks.’???
Teams do improve, believe it or not…Since they’ve been called a ‘white collar team’ after the first Illinois meeting… In those three games (Illinois,Wisconsin, Indiana) they are a (+6) in total rebound differential, have caused 43 turnovers and have allowed 60 points/gm. The three games prior to that comment (Nebraska, Illinois Maryland), they were a (-23) in rebound differential, had caused 35 turnovers and allowed 75 points/gm. Not a season worth of proof, but a positive trend for sure.
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The defense has played better. As a whole body of work, we have sucked defensively.
And Indiana beat Kansas in November, and NC in December.
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Ok? We are discussing body of work. Would Michigan be a bubble team right now? Yes and it would be more because of how the defense has played this season than the offense.
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Have you read the thread? It’s very odd for you to be calling me out for being too critical if you have. You realize I was on the optimist side of things in this discussion, no?
sucks is not accurate.
Watching Tyler battle reslly hurts. Guy is really good. I’m surprised he was ranked 35. He certainly looks much better then that. Looks top 20 and a five star to me. Really hurts. We’d be very good with him imo,
Also I’m shocked cuse has been so bad. This teAm has a ton of talent. I’m surprised Moyer gets no minutes. I think their going to beat fla st today and possibly go on a run. If this team comes together and figures it out I could see cuse going on a run and getting in the tourney. If they get in there it could be one of those out of no where deep runs for cuse again.