I don’t think 16-5 (6-2) is a “bubble team” unless you have a very loose definition of that term.
I guess I do. Low seeds aren’t guaranteed anything on selection day. Once again, a low seed with a 10 adjO and 88 adjD isn’t exactly convincing its “the defense” when we saw the 2014 team.
I guess you do.
Michigan would be safely in at 16-5 (6-2)
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Wait the season ends today? lol. It would be a potential low seed and sweating it after the rest of the schedule. Michigan is no threat with this offense and a 88 adjD. Might beat ND type team this year before being knocked out…about it. We won’t agree so I’m done with this conversation.
No, I’m talking about a defensive effort at about the 100 level, or the level of the '14 team, not a team which posted several historically bad defensive efforts and literally dropped 100 spots in the first five Big Ten games. With that, we’re not a bubble team, nor would we have anything to be concerned about on Selection Sunday.
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Not going to continue to argue about this. My last post on the matter :
A team with a profile of adjO 10, adjD 88 is likely to finish Kenpom 25-30, not win the B1G, not make a deep run (especially with only ok perimeter play), not have a POY candidate. The 14 team finished at 12. We’ve seen JB’s offenses when they are fine (13, 14) meaning near the ceiling of JB’s offensive system. The offense definitely is not “fine”, good, but there is considerable room for improvement on offense with JB at the helm to be an elite team unlike the jump needed defensively which isn’t as realistic. The defense would need to be in sub 30s and I don’t see that as likely or the reason this team isn’t elite.
For context, if we had the 88th ranked D, we would be 28th on KenPom.
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Essentially stated that already. Currently 33 (for reference).
And not be a bubble team.
and not be ‘fine’ offensively.
Looks like you’re not done on the subject?
Glad we have moved passed the silly notion that 16-5 (6-2) Michigan team would be considered a bubble team at this point. Not a numbers guy are you?
No, I just tend to let fools stew. What I can say is you are consistently wrong about basketball and say dumb things like “the offense is fine” (the original disagreement) when the adjD would need to be at a level not done under JB to make real noise.
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The offense is fine. The defense sucks.
Moving on.
The offense isn’t fine and I’ll be stating that from here until it improves. Deal with it.
The offense is 10th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency. Pretty solid.
Done with this discussion. Carry on.
Glad you moved from “fine” to “solid”. We are making progress.
Semantics have really been dominating the board, lately. And I basically lost track of what this argument was about. I thought it was about whether or not a marginally improved defense, retroactively, would move us off the bubble? If this hypothetical defense lead to us beating VT and Iowa (a top 50 team, and a road win), it sure seems like we would be off the bubble. We’d still have work to do to stay off of it, of course. And I just dont see how 10th best offense can be viewed as anything but a roaring success. Yeah it could be up to 9 places higher…by definition.
@ReegsShannon, any way to check what our rank would be if we had the…idk, 5th? best offense?
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Yeah I feel a bit dumb about going so hard with regard to the above average/good debate in retrospect. There’s a difference, but it’s too subtle to make it an issue.
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Its not a roaring success because the defense needed would be something JB has never done before. Thats why the offense isn’t fine, not terrible, but not sufficient for JB to have one of his better teams. The idea that the team would make noise with a marginal improved defense or that the defense is the overwhelming reason for a mediocre team does not seem grounded in reality if the Kenpom rank is #28…teams around that rank usually are early exits.