Has any update been out about Derrick Walton?
Wouldnât Michigan be viewed as one of those wannabes as well? They have played extremely poor at home awful start against Penn St, loss against Maryland, horrible D against Nebraska. I am sure every team coming into Crisler believe they can beat Michigan. Yes they played Wisconsin well but Beilein has beaten Wisconsin 2 times in 10 years those arenât good numbers. Michigan matches up very poorly against Purdue. Realistically there are probably 5-6 more wins left on their schedule.
I think your Buckeyes might miss the tournament, too.
You have another OSU alum on the board btw.
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They are one of the wannabes. I am not saying they will win those games I am saying those are the games they need if they want the NCAA tourney and not the NIT.
Right now the Big Ten is: Wisconsin, Purdue, maybe Maryland, a bunch of wannabes, Rutgers.
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Iâd also throw Ohio State behind the wannabes and before rutgers
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In such a weird year, the conference tournament could end up being huge. If we have 18 wins at the end of non conference but can take 2 (or 3) in the B1G tournament that would do it. say we end up playing in the first round against a weak opponent like Rutgers then catch Wisconsin or Purdue in the 2nd round, knowing we have to win to make the tourney and theyâre already in, I would like our chances
We need to see the Wisconsin game defense going forwardâŚhaving that be the base line. No excuses why notâŚits just effort! (with maybe being coached-up on the box outs) They should be in every game if that continues to build. Then they donât have to rely on making 55% of their threes. And when/if they do make threes, they can beat anybody in the Big Ten.
One can look at the results seen yesterday and extrapolate⌠âhey we should be able to take them at homeâ and thoughts of that nature. It is going to come down to consistency and pulling some of these different pieces together. If we do that, I can see a smooth(-ish) route to the tourney if we hold court at home and play above âwannabe gradeâ in a few select road games like Minn. There is a lot of evidence to say that we arenât trending in a straight line upward though. Too many mental letdowns, and things that good teams simply donât do.
Separately, while people have said there is no reason to sweat the offense when the defense has been so bad, having the ability to get a basket in the middle of one of these runs (even if our total PPP was high) would have been crucial. It is a huge momentum turner when a team knows we are gasping for air on offense and it sucks the life out of our defense when they feel helpless and see leads erode so quickly.
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How did Teske look yesterday, see he only played 3 min but didnât hit the scoresheet. Curious if he looked out of place at all.
Also Donlon is on the radio tonight unfortunately canât listen but interested in what he has to say.
Deja vuâŚ
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Iâm not too jazzed about yesterdayâs game because I think Wisconsinâs offense minimized the weaknesses in our D. We didnât have to chase guards around and defend the pick and roll constantly. We handled the post-ups well, but Iâd definitely rather have our bigs guard one-on-one post defense than have them defend a pick and roll. They are both 6â11" after all, and have better length than Nigel and Happ.
Wisky ran more pick and roll in the second half, and our defense started to fall apart, particularly against the 4/5 pick and rolls with Nigel as the ball handler.
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Well yeah, our perimeter D is even worse than our post D, and Wisconsin ran more post. But they were also the (approx) highest post-up efficiency/volume team in the conference, with the best post-up center in the conference, and Hayes is probably only second to Swannigan as a post-up 4.
And, yeah, we fell apart trying to guard the high PNR late in the game, but we were also in the double-bonus, which (1) meant we hadnt been allowed to perimeter bump all 2nd half and (2) we definitely couldnât bump after the 15:00 point because they were already in the bonus and (3) 3/5 of our starters sat our serious minutes in the 2nd half.
Last gameâs defense may have been an aberration, we wont know until we see itâor dontâagain; Iâd probably be surprised if we play that well, considering the comp and location, again, this season. But the guys played hard the whole game, they played more aggressively, and they did it against a top 20 offense in one of the toughest atmospheres in the conference. Bare minimum, it was an improvement from the previous game, and from the rest of the season as a whole.
AND Wisconsin only shot 1% higher from 3 (37% instead of 36% on the season), so the curse of Kenpom appears to have passed
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I feel better. That said, we did not show weâre capable of winning big games. We havenât, yâknow, won a big game since November.
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Michigan played a lot harder than they have in the past. Of course Wisconsin is happy to play that type of game Michigan just played against them. They may play well against Illinois but their players do pose different matchup issues. Morgan for Illinois can hit a 13 foot jumper, you ever see Happ outside of 13 feet, even Hayes hasnât been good this year on the perimeter. Indiana has guys that can shoot like Blackmon/Johnson and a tough matchup with Bryant. All yesterday seems is like a moral victory like the one against UCLA because Michigan hit a bunch of shots in the 1st half . Yes Michigan was closer this time but Wisconsin isnât close to being as good as UCLA.
We will find out if it was progressâmore than just a âmoral victoryâ-- in the coming games. And I dont really see how stating that UCLA is better than Wisconsin bolsters any argument. And yeah, Illinois and Indiana will present different challenges for our defense, than Wisconsin did, but Wisconsin is a great (top 20 = elite?) offense, and we played them in Kohl. Just because they play through the post doesnât mean theyâre not really good at scoring points, or that we didnât do a better job at preventing the other team from scoring points.
Claiming that a narrow loss to Wisconsin, albeit a âgoodâ loss, will clearly turn our season around/start us on our path to the tournament/etc is foolhardy. But itâs also denying fact, or maybe the definition of âprogress,â to not call the Wisconsin game progress. And in a game where mid-season quick-fixesâand being a team in the position that we are inâprogress is the goal.
Absolutely true.
One other thing to keep in mind beforehand is road wins. Last year, when Mich squeezed into the First Four, they had 4 true road wins. This season, U-M has zero with 6 chances left.
Ordinarily, a B1G record of 10-8 or maybe even 9-9 might be good enough. But would that be the case if U-Mâs only road wins are Rutgers and, say, Nebraska? Seems like theyâd need to win one more (or take down somebody like MSU at Breslin).
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If we win our 6 remaining home games (which include Wiscy and PU) and get two more on the road (to get to 10-8) we will likely get in no matter where the roadies come from. The neutral court wins against SMU (likely RPI top-50) and Marquette (top-100) will help. Getting to 10-8 is the issue. 9-9 and we might have to do work in the B1G tourney.
Serious question to anyone with this knowledge, has a team ever been left out with 9-10 top 100 RPI wins and only 1 loss outside of it (in the 100-150 range)?
Thatâs why I think 9-9 gets them in. 10-8 Iâll tell you right now is a lock to get in. (Unless a loss to Rutgers is in there, but even then.)
Last year we had 4 top 50 wins and no losses outside the top 100 and I remember reading that nobody with those numbers had ever been left out. But we had no other top 100 wins. Not all top 100 wins are the same. But looking at the B1Gâs rpi numbers, you may be right that getting to 9-9 gets enough top 100 and even 50 wins to feel pretty good. Hard to say right now. Hopefully weâll get on a roll and not have to worry about it.
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