I don’t see that happening. Walton and Irvin are not not mentally weak. And I don’t see Wagner and Wilson throwing in the towel.
Hey, I was also scoffed at when I predicted 7-9 in conference play and now that is looking optimistic.
Indiana is certainly a big one, but one could say the season rests on the Illinois game too. They did just beat U-M by 16 a week ago. Don’t see how one can assume a W.
At 2-4, pretty much every home game is critical. If you lose one, then you have to go 3-3 in the remaining road games to get to 10-8. And if @MSU and @IU are likely losses, then that means you need two wins out of the @Minn/@NW/@NU group. And this is all just to get on the bubble—10-8 guarantees nothing.
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I agree. I think this Illinois game is huge. Not so much where the tournament is concerned–I think that’s still a long shot–but just for playing the rest of the season with fire and holding their heads up.
Very much agree on Illinois. I just really don’t see them losing to them at home after getting beat before and the white collar comments.
If they lose Saturday then tournament chances are over, not literally but we can assume so.
I also think 9-9 is going to get them in this year. Mixed in there would be wins over Indiana, MSU, Wisc, Purdue and a road win(s) over Minny, Northwestern or Nebraska.
And yet the Badger fans thought they were getting screwed. A lot of elderly people getting mad literally any time a foul was called against the Badgers. They flipped a shit on that Walton shot where Koenig/Showalter slapped his arm as he was going up.
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Were you there? Elderly Crisler fans can be the same way, but obviously less vehemently because it’s Crisler. Same with my gramps (MSU fan).
Sounds like the Trohl Center was in full-affect, though: In the bonus with 15 minutes left, foul count at 9-2 at one point, playing literally the least-fouling team in the country, but still feels like they’re getting shafted.
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Does anyone else feel good after that loss to Wisconsin? Obviously there is no such thing as a good loss but that game showed there is no quit and this team is capable of winning big games. Wisconsin is a place teams have struggled to win in general and we should have won thanks to some bad calls. I expect us to come out hard these next few games and hopefully get hot. Hopefully this is a start. And for the Dwalt possible injury, I like X defensively and his passing has been solid and am ready for him. Trying to see the glass half full here
I feel the same way. I feel it’s just a matter for time before we put it all together. We’ve had good Wagner/Wilson and bad Irvin/Walton and vice versa, but we need them all playing well together to be really good like I think we can be. I so hope Donnal doesn’t see the floor any more, his mistakes are getting out of control. Can we send him packing mid-season? Teske looked fine and definitely wasn’t afraid of the moment, he needs to play while Donnal sits. Simpson looks more comfortable day by day and hopefully he can really start to contribute soon. BTW if both Wilson/Wagner are out of foul trouble, I feel we win yesterday. We played great defense in a very tough environment for the majority of the game but those fouls really caught up to us. I hope we blow out a very bad Illinois team at home and get this thing turned around.
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They probably have to win 9 of their remaining conference games maybe 2 in the BTT. Where are those 9 conference wins going to come from?
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@mgobluehoops23 I do, or at least better on the rest of season outlook. I see what wolverheel is saying and would agree with him if we played say, Indiana at home Saturday. I’d be worried the Wisconsin game would beat us twice. However, I believe with Illinois coming to town we’ll be able to carry over that Wisconsin momentum into Saturday.
@AlbrechtShotFake As it stands, we’re #76 in RPI and #63 in SOS. The whole Big Ten save Iowa and Rutgers is in the top 100. If we finished 9-9 (W at Rutgers), as RPIs stand now, we’d finish with a 10-11 record vs. the top 100. If Iowa does indeed stay outside, that’d be our only loss outside the top 100. I just don’t see how that resume is left out.
With that being said, IF we beat Illinois/Indiana, I see us beating OSU, MSU, splitting Wisc/Purdue at home. On the road, I see us beating Rutgers and winning at least one of Minny/Northwestern/Nebraska.
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Are you saying that Michigan needs to finish 11-7 in the Big Ten and make the Big Ten semis/finals to make the tourney?
They’d be in easily with that resume.
For example, RPI forecast (http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Michigan.html) projects Michigan’s RPI at 35 if it wins 9 more games.
The bigger question is what happens around 19 or 20 regular season wins – that’s in the 43-55 range.
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I’m saying right now Michigan doesn’t have the resume of a tournament team and they’re 2 games behind teams like MSU/Northwestern in the B1G. 1 loss separates 13th from 7th in the conference I don’t believe you want to be in that 7th or 8th area because you might be paired up and resumes compared to a NW/Indiana/MSU. I also think you’re failing to account for the strength of other conferences eg. ACC only got 7 bids last year they look like a lock for 9 this year maybe a 10th bid that’s going to come at the expense of another conference. What teams in the Big Ten does Michigan have a better resume than right now at this moment in time because that’s all we can go by?
Ah gotcha. If we’re looking at right now, then I do 100% agree with you. We don’t stack up at this moment, although we’re not too far off. It’s obviously tough to project, but if they get to 9-9 (or 10-8), I think they’ll overtake that cluster of lower standings teams.
If we end up at 9-9, I think Illinois falls off into the bottom four with Rutgers. I also think Iowa or Penn St will be along with probably OSU.
That’s literally not what you said.
You said
They would be a iron clad lock if they did that. In no way is that the bare minimum to make the tourney.
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Remaining we have Home vs Illinois, Indiana, Ohio St, MSU, Wisconsin, and Purdue and Away vs MSU, Indiana, Minnesota, Rutgers, Northwestern, Nebraska
Everyone is beatable I think we can beat Wisconsin at home if we play well. Same goes for Purdue. Those 2 will be tough. Home vs Illinois, Ohio St and away vs Rutgers and Nebraska should be wins. Home vs Indiana and MSU are games we should win but won’t win playing below average same goes away vs Minnesota, MSU, Indiana, and Northwestern. We need our top games to beat Wisconsin and Purdue but those are both home games so while they will be tough they will at least be home.
For getting 9 wins I say Rutgers Ohio St and Nebraska are games we must win and will. 6 more wins needed I say home vs Indiana MSU Illinois and we can win on the road vs any a inconsistent MSU Indiana Minnesota teams
I am not saying it will happen but any one of those games remaining is winnable
Those Indiana and Minny RPIs are just crazy. Sure hope we can beat Indiana at home, before having to brave Breslin.
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The recipe is pretty simply: win most (all?) home games, win at Rutgers, steal a 1 or 2 more on the road.
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The game last night makes me feel good about winning at home. People are seeming to forget that the big ten so far has been Wisconsin and a bunch of wannabes and we played them great at there own home court. They just need to stay the course and stay focused.