MATTMAN…I was encouraged by the early defensive energy against ND, but without ND self destructing via turnovers ( many unforced ) we had zero ability to stop them.
They were 25/43 for an EFG% of 67%. That kind of sensational percentage pretty much translates to a loss 99% of the time.
The physical limitations ingrained in this roster are to glaring to overcome most nights.
Could be. I thought we played very well in the first half, that exhaustion almost certainly had everything to do with the second half collapse. But you’re right, the second half D was awful; how quickly I forget!
While I agree that this roster isnt as athletic as some of the past rosters, and other teams in the country, you cant really argue that Notre Dame was that much more physically impressive than us, other than at the 5, and even then Augistine was their only athletic 5. There are always great teams and players who arent the fastest, strongest, or longest.
so what do people see as a possible rotation next year? Walton, MAAR, Irvin, Robinson, Wagner as starters/regulars seem to be pretty much guaranteed at this point. My question revolves around the bench. As I see it now, there are only TWO guaranteed bench spots right now: 1) Simpson and 2) someone out of our glut of big men (Doyle, Donnal, Wilson, Teske, Davis). So essentially, we are again potentially looking at a thin rotation. Who else other than the above is really a shoe-in to play minutes off the bench??
I don’t think there’s going to be drastic changes. But if I had to make one change, that would be it.
I think Mark is 95% likely to be the backup 5, maybe even begin the season as the starter. It’d be great if Teske took those minutes, because itd mean he brings solid back-to-the-basket and shot-blocking presence, but it seems unlikely. Teske will need to learn where to set his screens, in the offense.
The staff seems high on Chatman, I bet he is the first 2-4 off the bench. It also seems like they might be a little fed up with Aubrey, so I think Ibi will at least get a chance to show what he has as the offensive spark-plug off the bench (re: Zak his freshman year).
So for actual rotation players I see:
Starters: 1.Walton, 2.MAAR, 3.Duncan, 4.Zak, 5.Wagner (maybe Mark at the beginning)
Bench: 1. Simpson, 2-3.Ibi or Aubrey, 4. Chatman, 5. Mark
8-9 players getting 95% of the minutes is pretty typical
We will be playing chatman or Dawkins there’s no doubt. We can’t run our players into the ground again by playing them 38 minutes a game. That’s ok when you play once a week but obviously in tournament settings and busy weeks, it’s not. Here goes what I see our lineup will be next year.
Pg- Walton/Simpson
Sg- MAAR/Dawkins/Watson
Sf- Robinson/chatman
Pf- Irvin/chatman/Wilson
C- Wagner/donnal/teske
I think Doyle will transfer due to not being in the rotation and Davis will redshirt. It’s tough because Wilson could transfer but him being a potential 4 man makes him more likely to stick around. By no means is that the lineup I want to see out there but that looks like a great projection to what beilein will run out there opening night.
Kam Chatman did not play in the Notre Dame game because ND played four guards and Auguste. It was a matchup situation.
If that’s not the lineup you’d want to see, what lineup would your prefer? The starting 5 seems set in stone, unless Simpson or Teske are way better than advertised or someone makes an unpredicted, substantial leap in skill.
The set rotation will probably be
PG - Walton - Simpson
SG - MAAR - Walton
SF - Robinson - Dawkins
PF - Irvin - Kam
C - Wagner - Donnal
Then whoever is still on the roster/not redshirting between Wilson, Doyle, Teske and Davis will fight for 3rd string emergency center minutes. Watson will probably get garbage minutes.
I’d like for anyone at all to emerge to keep Irvin off the PF spot. If you watch us vs Syracuse last year when chatman started. He has a GREAT game overall. I think this summer will do him a huge favor. He needs to improve in quite a few areas but I feel it’s achievable as we saw some pretty good strides toward the end of the year. Mainly in his confidence but he did play plus post defense and his hustle was really there for the most part. I’d love for us to play Wagner at the 4 a little bit every game early on to see if it can materialize into something worth using. He can dribble and his hustle can help him be a decent defender if he stops the silly fouling. They are the only real options at the pf besides Irvin. I’ve said it before, this summer is huge for a lot of players in what this team will become. I want chatman starting at the PF spot opening night next year. Simpson Duncan donnal Dawkins off the bench would be pretty ok by me. We will see though, this summer will be very telling of what kids really want it. Dawkins and chatman especially.
That’s a good point, I hadn’t considered moving Zak off of the 4. I actually think Duncan taking over the minutes at the 4 would be best for the team. If he could get strong enough to guard big 4s, that could mask his defensive slowness; and then we could still have his shooting on the floor. It just seems like his 6-8 frame should have him guarding 4s, instead of 6-6 Zak. Tells me Duncan needs a stronger lower body and a more aggressive mindset.
But if Kam can become a 35% 3pt shooter, with a starter’s volume of shots, then I think you’re right and Kam should start for Duncan, at the 4. Id love to see what Zak could do with fresher legs from not banging down low with guys that have 40 pounds on him.
The same can be said for Wagner at the 4. Unless he can become an above-average 3pt shooter, he wont get minutes at the 4 unless we are playing a team that plays 2 bigs and is abusing us with that matchup.
Next years lineup is what it is (Walton, Rahk, Irvin, Robinson, Donnal/Wagner). That starting line up can get you to the tourney. The biggest question is the dept. The 2016 recruiting class in my opinion hurt Mich in that we did not get that strong 2 guard we thought we had. Ibi is good fall back for the future. But in essence because we lost out on Battle we have Rahk as our starting 2 guard. As I have said in other threads and others reiterated here Rahk would serve us better as a strong back up guard.
The biggest question mark for the team will be will all the bigs come back and who will back up Irvin at the 4. If Wilson returns he needs to be slated for the 4 for the rest of his Mich tenure which would be the only way to get some use out of him but that also means he has to tighten up everything.
As much as I don’t like pushing someone out, it would help Mich in the near future is two individuals decided to move on.
Missing out on Battle/Langford could be its own thread. Getting one or both of those guys wouldn’t just substantially change next year’s potential, it would also change the perception of the program’s/JB’s recruiting and direction.
I agree, ideally Robinson would be a great option but how much stronger can or will he get? Will banging against 4s hurt his shooting in offense? All these things need to be considered. I think it’ll help Simpson out the most in his 10-15 minutes having Robinson in the floor with him and maybe Dawkins and from what I’ve seen he can get open guys the ball. Chatman can do it all on a basketball court and has great size in doing so. Will he be good at pick n roll, probably not but he can pass, shoot and defend at a decent level. You know how people always say a guy has improved but mainly the game has slowed down for him? If that happens for chatman this summer, look out Michigan world he could be a plus player next year. We all saw that last shot he took, there was 1.5 seconds left and he shuffled his feet and looked to pass before he finally shot it. Hopefully the game slows down and he’s our starting PF next year.
I hope you’re right, about Chatman developing. 15 minutes off the bench of Duncan’s offense would be great. But it will take a major offensive upgrade for Kam to replace Duncan in the starting lineup. He needs consistency in his passing and a higher shooting %. But I think there’s no doubt that Kam’s defensive ceiling is way higher than Duncan’s.
Yep. The game just slowing down for chatman will be huge. He always seems so Getty and anxious when he’s out there. If he doesn’t progress playing Irvin at the 4 isn’t the end of the world. He will have a summer of strength training and a healthy one at that. Chatmans length and strength showed pretty well against Purdue and if he can knock down open 3s with decent regularity (35-38%), he should be starting next year. I understand that’d be a big jump fir him but confidence does wonders for people.
I just don’t see Robinson being physical enough to be a viable 4. I think there are three possibilities there:
Chatman gets unexpectedly better and gets the bulk of minutes at the 4.
We see so much improvement from Donnal and Wagner (and maybe contribution from Teske) that Beilein decides to play bigs at the 4 and the 5 a significant part of the time.
Irvin remains the main guy at the 4.
Though 1 or 2 (or a combination) would be much preferred, I can’t consider either as very likely at this point.
I think you’re right, it’s most likely that Zak will remain the 4. But I think Duncan getting strong enough to guard the 4 is about as likely as Kam becoming good enough in enough areas to start at the 4. I think the 2 bigs system is the least likely result.
Kam is more naturally gifted than Duncan. Hope he can live up to his potential next year.