I don’t think Chatman played against ND. Not sure why.
You can’t figure out why??
No. He consistently logged in 6-8 minutes in the 6 or seven games leading up prior to ND. Maybe he was injured? Or maybe he didn’t match up well with ND? Not sure.
IMO you will have Kam and Aubrey fighting for the exact same minutes again next year. Both are very sub par bench players IMO. Irvin will play the 4 the majority of the time.
Team 101… 6 top 100 players on the team (counting Mo), but probably a safe expectation that Zak and Derrick are going to get a lot of usage (if not mins), and also safe that JB lets them operate pretty autonomously. The two shot 8-29 against what is probably the worst power5 defense in the country. Some of the shots were good looks and didn’t go in, some were not good decisions. Our win total next year is most heavily correlated to the ability of those two to be efficient, and make others more efficient and I’m worried that if what we saw in terms of decision making continues (no ball movement, step behind a soft pick and throw it up) we will continue to have long lapses on offense, which as we know can’t be overcome with our D. If everyone improves and they are looking to facilitate first, then this could be really special, but I can’t tell if some of their decisions were based on necessity (no one else could do anything), or lack of poise/vision (Zak’s really awful 3 when we were making a run vs Iowa). If these guys make that leap in “facilitating the offense” rather than dominating it, I think 11-7 is low.
I’m sure it will come up in the report cards, but a plot of Zak usage vs efficiency relative to his peers in the B1G would probably be telling, esp post Caris. Derrick potentially the same, but I’m less concerned given how much of the offense he can facilitate (when he decides to pass).
After seeing Aubrey go from 30pts in the final game of the regular season last year, to whatever you’d call it this year, I’m not assuming incremental improvement from anywhere, but would be pleasantly surprised if DW could build a decent floater game, Zak found his left hand, Kam/Aubrey/DJ/Doyle do anything to make them strong challengers for minutes (which gives JB the ability to bench people upon doing anything stupid), or the freshmen come in able to just make it such that others don’t have to play 35+ mins. I’m high on Mo, although every memory of I have of him doing things well was sort of by consequence rather than having things run for/through him. Hopefully he improves such that he warrants a more central role.
I’m bullish on next year, but things like “Camp Sanderson”, which used to mean obvious jumps now make me want to see things before getting too excited. Offseason training doesn’t directly lead to Zak shooting jumpers off balance less and looking to facilitate high percentage 2pt offense more. Curious to see what they do with the roster, but DJ/Aubrey/Doyle/Kam would be my first 4 out in that order.
If you look at just Big Ten games this past season (which is a much better measure of how well someone performs against high quality athletes), MAAR shot only 31% on threes. That’s a critical stat for a starting SG in a Beilein offense, and 31% just doesn’t cut it, not if the team is going to have the success we hope for. By contrast, Hardaway shot 44% on threes in the Big Ten as a freshman, and Stauskas 37%, both on far more attempts. Hardaway had a dip as a sophomore, but he’d already shown that he was capable of more, and proved it as a junior.
But didn’t Irvin shoot below 30% on the season from 3??
You may be a little too pessimistic about Teske and Watson. I think either or both could play next year, and possibly be regular rotation guys. If neither ends up doing much, then yeah…our lineup isn’t going to be too inspiring.
I’m roughly 1,000,000 years old, so don’t pin a preference for fast-moving, highly-skilled ball on the young folk. Now, if it’s win ugly or lose pretty, that’s different. But if you are gonna have about the same results in the w-l columns, why not go with high variance and a little flair.
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Maybe I am and only time will tell on the Frosh but I’m sticking to the guys I’ve seen play at the college level.
I’m more interested to see if everyone is back next year
Here it goes.
Walton- he needs to improve on the defensive end first of all. He played so well in both tournaments on both ends but we didn’t see it until it was do or die for the team. Yes he played a ton of minutes and next tearful get more rest, but his starts on defense. In the pick and roll game if he can be a better distributor, that’d open up things even more. It looked like a lot of the time he and donnal weren’t on the same page as to what each other expected each other to do. Summer can fix that. Becoming more of a vocal leader will do wonders for this team as often times the younger guys were looking to the head coach every time for guidance. Walton and Irvin need to bu guys that other guys can look to and take charge on the court.
MAAR- his improvement needs to start and end on decision making. He doesn’t have an excuse as to why he does things, it’s just the player he is. I so wish we could use him as the sixth man but I don’t see that happening. Him attacking the rim is great, but if he doesn’t become a better passer then teams will know exactly what’s coming and can adjust accordingly. As we saw in another post and I agree with, 31% won’t cut it without having a reason to be 31% besides not being a good shooter. If he can improve on shot up shooting, again that’d open up things a lot as well.
Irvin- he wouldn’t be in this list has he had a healthy summer. The player he became before injury was an all big ten caliber player. We saw flashes of that this year but it was clear he was off all year. Back surgery affects a whole lot more than just your back. I feel his decision making problems this year all stem from not having the vertical ability to attack the rim with any confidence so he just settled for Jump shots and got blocked on drives. A summer of working out alone will do him wonders. Watch the Illinois and Wisconsin games in the btt from last year. That player was great and he can return to that form because he has the work ethic and desire to be great. Being a 6’6 guard that can shoot and drive is a great advantage and with his confidence back he can return to his second half form from last year.
With all that being said, these three can thrive together with improvement in a few areas. Ideally it would be MAAR coming off the bench to get his own buckets because he’s great at that, but without an optional on for the starting sg spot he has to be the guy. Hopefully his spot up shooting will continue to get better. Not having to wonder if our best player is coming back I think will help Irvin and Walton take control of this team.
That’s all fair.
Irvin, Robinson, Dawkins, Chatman, and Wilson can’t guard anybody on the perimeter, period.
Walton gets bullied because of size limitations and MAAR is just so so. Where does the defensive improvement on the dribble drive attacking teams come from next year?
X is 5’10", and barring a season ending injury or auto bench situation, is taking very limited minutes away from this years core group as it exists today. He will be Lucky to get 5-6 minutes next year.
This team has to improve defensively to make a significant leap next year, and it still has the same group of Matadors poised to get 95% of the minutes next season. How is that going to change?
The incoming Frosh will have almost zero impact on the playing group in 16-17. This team we have today is our team for next year too. I just don’t see how we improve defensively with the roster limitations being the same.
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My comparison between sophomore MAAR and sophomore THJR was obviously cherrypicked as were your stats. Here is more cherrypicked stats from conference play:
MAAR fg 48%
Irvin fg 41%
Robinson fg 40%
Walton fg 36%
The reason I don’t even think 31% from 3, in conference, is that bad for MAAR is the kind of 3’s he was often forced into taking. I am not in a position to quantify it but MAAR, it seems to me took a higher percentage of 3’s that he was creating for himself out of necessity because the offense was either not producing or Robinson would pass on a ok look with time running down. Quite Frankly, although MAAR is just an ok 3point shooter, he is probably the best on the team at creating his own 3 point shot. Irvin would get stuffed at high percentage. Robinson would refuse to shoot it unless the planets and stars are in-line. Walton gets good separation on his step back but it sure seems like he is more of a catch and shoot guy. The only other guy is Dawkins who has the freakish ability to put a shot up in someone’s face and make it. Irvin makes a lot 3’s off screens and he is pretty good at it. I think Dylan analyzed and concluded that Walton is elite at catch and shoot but horrible off the bounce. Robinson appears to be good mostly when left wide open…The final thing I would say about this is that MAAR seems to be self aware enough to know that in a catch and shoot situation–that is a high percentage look from 3–he is the fourth option on the team. His lower percentage is more of a function of him, more than anyone else on the team, understanding his role relative to his teamates.
Am I the only person who thinks this season couldve been drastically different if we had just 2 things that we expected to have, coming into the season: Our seniors (Spike and Caris) and great 3pt shooting? It cant be argued that this team wouldnt have been better, in every facet, with Caris (especially) on the team. The guys was going to put up near-Denzel Valentine numbers. And of course a higher 3pt % means more points, but it also means less transition defense, more energy on defense, and a more efficient, drought-resistant offense.
As for next year, there is definitely reason for higher expectations:
- Everybody has said it, but Wagner looks like he could be the best/most talented 5 we have had since Mitch.
- Zak wont be coming off of back surgery or an empty offseason. I think that because the surgery didnt get a bunch of coverage, opportunistic pessimists want to dismiss the surgery and its negative effects. Back surgery is a big deal and so is missing an offseason.
- Walton showed what he can become, late in the season. I think he has a lower PNR-distribution ceiling than most people would like, but that’s really the only facet that I think he cant excel at.
- Duncan can return to elite shooting, and will get better at getting open.
5.The difference between a tired Walton + Dak off the bench vs a rested Walton and X off the bench is enormous. So many times, our leads and flow were killed by an influx of bench players. The gap between bench and starters will be smaller, which will make everyone better.
6. I cant say it enough, but we can shoot so much better. We were missing open shots. While we get better at other things, I think we stop missing so many open shots.
7. The biggest JB detractors are calling for a better defense. Of course we would a better team if we played better defense, and we should improve at least some. But JB’s best teams were never great defensive teams, and plenty of the country’s good teams were great offensive teams and mediocre at defense.
One additional thing. The degree of difficulty of MAAR’s field goals in the paint and around the rim is very high. There is no padding in his fg% stat line. He is not benefiting from the easy fast break buckets that are the result of a team that is good at easy transition buckets at the rim. With his speed, if Burke was on the team, his fg percentage might be in the 55-65% range.
The MAAR fg% is interesting and a good stat for the people who think that he should take on a bigger role. I am grateful that he can score in ways that the rest of the team struggles, and am willing to live with a 31% 3pt. But I dont think his 3s (after Caris went down) were typically more difficult than Walton’s or Zak’s. The low percentages are mostly due to our scoring droughts, when both missed open shots and forced ourselves into taking pull-up 3s at the end of the shot clock. Like you said, Walton is an elite catch and shoot player, but he was frequently forced to take a bad shot off the dribble. Zak took unforced bad shots.
I think MAAR can best help the team by becoming a better facilitator, not by shooting better. He is good at getting in the lane, so he should be able to take that lane space and dish to the guys who are great at catching and shooting. If Walton and Zak could spend more time running off screens and less ball handling, then our 3pt % will go up. I also thought Duncan showed a good passing ability, so hopefully he can pass to shooters when his motion gets caught off/defended
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I can agree with what you said–especially about MAAR becoming a better facilitator. It seems more likely to me that he has a better chance to learn to become a better passer when he gets into lane than he has a chance to become a significantly better 3pt shooter.
Well, did they play improved D against ND or not?
I still have hope for a bounce back by Irvin, if he can get completely healthy and stay that way. I’d like it even more if we could push him down to play the 3 exclusively, so that he wouldn’t have to bang against bigger, stronger guys on defense all night. Don’t think that’s too likely, though.
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