Production Predictions for the 2014-2015 Team

Size and Strength do matter for setting picks, blocking out, not getting pushed around on the block, etc. What’s “more imporant” in re size, athleticism, length, strength, is not really the right question. Players need a certain amount of each, and the more of each the better, usually. If LeBron were 6’2" he wouldn’t be LeBron just as much as if he couldn’t jump as high.

That being said, I think Wilson has enough of those things to play center in college, and that will be especially true in year 2 and on. But, I’d be pretty surprised if Doyle redshirts.

My hope is that JB adopts a similar approach that Bo has with his bigs i.e. Kaminsky. Guys with size and skill that may not be highly rated who need a year or two to develop on the bench. Bringing in one of those every other year. Donnal/Doyle/DJ in the same class is worrisome and an additional big in 2015 is scary 4 years down the road.

UM doesn’t seem to have the luxury to do that which is why Europe is important.

Tend to agree with UMHoopsFan. I have a hard time seeing Doyle not play. rotation at the 5 will be Donnal/Max/Doyle, rotation at the 4 will probably be Chatman/Wilson/Irvin. Looking forward, especially if Michigan doesn’t take a Big in 2015, I would expect Wilson to play some center sooner rather than later.

Tend to agree with UMHoopsFan. I have a hard time seeing Doyle not play. rotation at the 5 will be Donnal/Max/Doyle, rotation at the 4 will probably be Chatman/Wilson/Irvin. Looking forward, especially if Michigan doesn't take a Big in 2015, I would expect Wilson to play some center sooner rather than later.

So you believe Doyle will be a rotation guy more so than Dawkins/MAAR or you think a 10, 11 player rotation?

Tend to agree with UMHoopsFan. I have a hard time seeing Doyle not play. rotation at the 5 will be Donnal/Max/Doyle, rotation at the 4 will probably be Chatman/Wilson/Irvin. Looking forward, especially if Michigan doesn't take a Big in 2015, I would expect Wilson to play some center sooner rather than later.

So you believe Doyle will be a rotation guy more so than Dawkins/MAAR or you think a 10, 11 player rotation?

I guess in that choice I am leaning towards a bigger rotation, but that depends on how much PT do you think it requires for you to be “in the rotation”. Rough guess below, but very very rough minute estimates.

  1. Walton (25 min), Albrecht (15 min)
  2. LeVert (35 min), MAAR (5 min)
  3. Irvin (30 min), Chatman (10 min)
  4. Chatman (25 min), Wilson (15 min)
  5. Donnal (20 min), Doyle (15 min), Bielfeldt (5 min)

I’m more confident saying Doyle will be a rotation guy and be a part of a larger rotation than MAAR and Dawkins won’t be rotation guys.

Tend to agree with UMHoopsFan. I have a hard time seeing Doyle not play. rotation at the 5 will be Donnal/Max/Doyle, rotation at the 4 will probably be Chatman/Wilson/Irvin. Looking forward, especially if Michigan doesn't take a Big in 2015, I would expect Wilson to play some center sooner rather than later.

So you believe Doyle will be a rotation guy more so than Dawkins/MAAR or you think a 10, 11 player rotation?

I guess in that choice I am leaning towards a bigger rotation, but that depends on how much PT do you think it requires for you to be “in the rotation”. Rough guess below, but very very rough minute estimates.

  1. Walton (25 min), Albrecht (15 min)
  2. LeVert (35 min), MAAR (5 min)
  3. Irvin (30 min), Chatman (10 min)
  4. Chatman (25 min), Wilson (15 min)
  5. Donnal (20 min), Doyle (15 min), Bielfeldt (5 min)

I’m more confident saying Doyle will be a rotation guy and be a part of a larger rotation than MAAR and Dawkins won’t be rotation guys.

JB usually has 8 guys playing 10 mpg or more in a season and the rest of the bench logging under 5 mpg.

I can’t wrap my head around Walton only getting 25 mpg.

Tend to agree with UMHoopsFan. I have a hard time seeing Doyle not play. rotation at the 5 will be Donnal/Max/Doyle, rotation at the 4 will probably be Chatman/Wilson/Irvin. Looking forward, especially if Michigan doesn't take a Big in 2015, I would expect Wilson to play some center sooner rather than later.

So you believe Doyle will be a rotation guy more so than Dawkins/MAAR or you think a 10, 11 player rotation?

I guess in that choice I am leaning towards a bigger rotation, but that depends on how much PT do you think it requires for you to be “in the rotation”. Rough guess below, but very very rough minute estimates.

  1. Walton (25 min), Albrecht (15 min)
  2. LeVert (35 min), MAAR (5 min)
  3. Irvin (30 min), Chatman (10 min)
  4. Chatman (25 min), Wilson (15 min)
  5. Donnal (20 min), Doyle (15 min), Bielfeldt (5 min)

I’m more confident saying Doyle will be a rotation guy and be a part of a larger rotation than MAAR and Dawkins won’t be rotation guys.

JB usually has 8 guys playing 10 mpg or more in a season and the rest of the bench logging under 5 mpg.

I can’t wrap my head around Walton only getting 25 mpg.

I know Beilein runs short lineups. What I listed would be 8 guys playing more than 10 mins. I really am just guessing though. Walton, Irvin, and LeVert could all likely get 30-35 per game.

Good conversation regarding the redshirt of the big. I think Max’s health and recovery will decide the issue. Really young up front and I can’t see these guys staying out of foul trouble in the first half of the B1G season. They might need all of them on the bench this year…but would be surprised if Doyle is ready to play. Reminds me of Morgan in his Freshman season…got to get ready for the battle.

Dingo, your minutes distribution above does not include Dawkins? I think he’s the guy with the 10 minutes at the three backing up Irvin. I don’t see Chatman playing 35 a game. I also think Dawkins is going to eventually be really good. And on Walton, I think he’s ready for a breakout year and 30 minutes per night.

The less we have to play Max Bielfeldt the better. The guy belongs at a mid-major.

Dingo, your minutes distribution above does not include Dawkins? I think he's the guy with the 10 minutes at the three backing up Irvin. I don't see Chatman playing 35 a game. I also think Dawkins is going to eventually be really good. And on Walton, I think he's ready for a breakout year and 30 minutes per night.

I also like Dawkins, but I also find it hard to believe that 11 scholarship kids will he getting real minutes this season. I would not mind being wrong about that though. For the record, I am in the camp of Dawkins being the sleeper of the class overall.

Good conversation regarding the redshirt of the big. I think Max's health and recovery will decide the issue. Really young up front and I can't see these guys staying out of foul trouble in the first half of the B1G season. They might need all of them on the bench this year....but would be surprised if Doyle is ready to play. Reminds me of Morgan in his Freshman season....got to get ready for the battle.

If we have to rely on Max, the season is doomed. Our best hope is that Donnal can match Morgan’s output, and Chatman can replace GR3, with Wilson and/or Doyle providing quality minutes, maybe not immediately but half way into the season. Both Wilson and Doyle have doubters, but I think the latter is more mature and is more ready than most posters believe. Wilson certainly has a higher ceiling but also face a steeper learning curve. Ideally both should redshirt, but we need both to provide the front court depth.

It is not all impossible that Dawkins will play some 4 and Wilson will play some 5, but if that ever happens, it will be a mid-season adjustment as Dawkins emerges as #7 in the rotation.

Wilson actually played in a competitive HS league while Doyle didn’t but he has a a steeper learning curve?

“It is not all impossible that Dawkins will play some 4 and Wilson will play some 5, but if that ever happens, it will be a mid-season adjustment as Dawkins emerges as #7 in the rotation.”

What is this based on?

I’d say DWJ, LeVert,Irvin,Chatman,Kam,Donnal w/ Spike,DJ,Dawkins as the 8 man rotation

but then, what is that based on?

I have to agree with Guestavo on Ricky regarding his High School competition and I don’t doubt Wilson or Doyle will contribute and be above average in the future. The first year is tough if you haven’t played a lot of ball against the best kids in the country. It’s a very big step into the B1G for most Freshman unless you’ve played in Prep school or against the elite kids in the country. The speed and size of the game really jumps and is most difficult for the big men unless you have the foot speed and agility to move.

At some point he’s gotta make the hard hedge and get back to his man on D…it won’t be easy. The August trip should answer all our questions.

In what world is Dawkins playing the 4? SMH.

In what world is Dawkins playing the 4? SMH.
Same world that GRIII and Novak did. Beilein will play the best 7-9 players in the rotation and will make it work. I'm having a hard time predicting the rotation myself; there are so many unknowns.

Dawkins can play the 4 at Michigan if Zak Irvin did last season. Easy answer.

Dawkins has the same skillset as GR3 and Irvin. 6’6’’ long, athletic, can stretch the D, will score on curls,backdoors and lobs but isn’t an on-ball playmaker.

Agree with Guestavo - Dawkins will play a similar role as GR3, not as athletic, but a better shooter. Doesn’t have the midrange shot off the bounce like Irvin though. Pretty much agree though…he is our backdoor cutter and garbage man of the future, will bring momentum plays on oops, etc.

Yeah… Beilein has already made a strong reference to how Dawkins is a legit 6-6. Seems like a much better fit as a backup four than Irvin because he hopefully has the bounce and size to hang in with bigger players.