Predictions for tonight?

I know the popular move is to be pro-Trey, and I get that, but If we’re being honest about it Trey isn’t the best option at the 2 on Utah’s roster, Burks is a much better 2. That being said, if Exum becomes the starting 1 for Utah, I see Trey’s time in Utah being short-lived.

I actually think Napier>trey in all facets of the game other than passing

Napier is DJ Augustine. Stop.

If you can't restructure your game in the NBA, you won't last long.

Yep. And Burke won’t be good enough to justify dominating the ball like he did in college so he’s going to have to learn to play off the ball.

I know the popular move is to be pro-Trey, and I get that, but If we're being honest about it Trey isn't the best option at the 2 on Utah's roster, Burks is a much better 2. That being said, if Exum becomes the starting 1 for Utah, I see Trey's time in Utah being short-lived.

I do not know Utah’s long term plan, but their plan for next season is not Exum starting at PG.

While Exum might a high ceiling player worthy the 5th overall pick, he has not played at any senior level, and the biggest stage he had is the FIBA U19. He is a gamble pick at the best. His experience as a player resembles Darko more than Rubio.

I actually think Napier>trey in all facets of the game other than passing
Napier is DJ Augustine. Stop.

In no way is Napier Augustine. He does everything better from a skill standpoint, Augustine is simply a better athlete. I love the fact that people say Burke had a very solid rookie season despite the fact that he shot 38% from the field on an awful team. FG % isn’t everything but that is pretty subpar. I maintain my opinion that THJ will be a better pro than THJ. In my opinion Trey is a 2 stuck in a PG body for purposes of the NBA. THJ actually has a position in the league and the league isn’t a half court/set play type of game in the same mold of the college game. THJ has the green light to do what he does best - shoot and get out in transition.

I agree with most of what you’ve said so far MattD. Only thing I disagree with is Trey being a 2. Sure he’s a score first guard, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be a 1. He’s actually a really good distributor. If Trey was a bit taller and more athletic, he’d be one of the best PGs in the NBA. The fact that he can’t finish at the rim even moderately well is a real detriment to his game. This was the same guy who had tons of circus layups in college and with that facet of his game gone, his shooting % took a big hit because he had to settle for mid range jump shots the majority of the time. (BTW his broken finger was bothering him all year long so I think his shooting will be much improved next year). With that said, I really am rooting for Trey (does my username give it away?) and hope that he can prove us all wrong and take his play to a whole new level. I have to say, I am worried about the Exum pick though and that could easily send Trey packing…but at this point who really wants to play for Utah anyways?

To me, much of this is nonsense. First of all, Burke did have a very solid rookie year. 13 points and 6 assists? Not bad at all on a bad team where he didn’t have much help. Plenty of smaller guys turn out to be very good players in the NBA. Tony Parker just won his third title. He’s not any more athletic than Trey. Darrin Collison was a solid starter in the league for several years, and is now a key reserve for the Clippers (on a loaded team). Mike Conley isn’t big either, but he’s very good. Ditto Ty Lawson.

As far as the Napier stuff, come on. The guy played four years of college basketball. Trey, on the other hand, was the NPOY after two years. There’s no way Trey, after four years, wouldn’t be a much better player than Napier (indeed I’d argue sophomore Trey was better than senior Napier anyway). Burke was a lotto pick after two years. So was Augustine. At a similar stage, Napier wasn’t even on the NBA’s radar. So before we “crown” him, maybe we should actually see him play a game in the NBA, no? And even then, if LeBron returns to the Heat, that’s a cushy gig for Napier, not exactly the same situation Burke faces.

As far as Trey not being a “pass first” guy, I agree. But aside from Chris Paul and Rondo (who can’t shoot), no one really is these days.

LA - c’mon buddy I love Trey just like every other UM fan but let’s get real here. You say nonsense - the man scored 12.8 ppt on 12.8 shots per game at 38%- that is horrible no matter what degree of bias you have. If that were any other player in the league and the numbers were given to you blindly most people would probably think he was a high volume/low efficiency ball hog.

To say that Parker in his prime wasn’t quicker/faster than Trey is kind of far fetched - no? Secondly, Tony Parker is BY FAR the best finishing small guard in the league - Trey isn’t even in the same stratosphere, that is the very reason TP is an all star and the very reason Trey is not.

I don’t care about what would’ve happened if Trey stayed 4 years, im talking about now. Right now I think Napier is a better ball handler, shooter and defender then Trey. If Trey entered this years draft he would’ve been a late first round pick too and we all know it. Last year’s draft was awful and that is the truth.

A few points:

  1. Lots of guys put up mediocre numbers as rookies. And lots of guys - including stars like LeBron and Westbrook - were not efficient players as rookies. It’s hardly time to throw in the towel on the kid. I’ll bet you Exum will also not be very efficient next year. Look at MCW this year. Or Oladipo. Both have promising futures. Neither was anything close to efficient. Brad Beal as a rookie, too - look at the jump he made this year.

  2. No, Trey would not have been late first this year. I’d say anywhere from 8-14 or so. No one is drafting Payne or TJ Warren or James Young ahead of Trey, IMO.

  3. You say Tony Parker, “in his prime,” was quicker. No kidding. Let’s compare apples to apples and see where Trey is in 4-5 years, when he’s in his prime too. Ditto on the finishing argument - it takes time.

  4. You act like Trey was Anthony Bennett or Otto Porter this year. Yeah, those guys, I’d be worried they’re busts. Trey has plenty of time to develop. Jeff Teague, by the way - another guy who has taken a few years and is now pretty solid.

Lebron rookie year:

20.9 ppt on 18.9 spg FG% 41.7

Westbrook rookie year:

15.3 ppg on 13.4 spg. FG% 39.8


16.7 ppg on 15.1 spg. FG% 40.5


13.8 ppg on 11.7 spg. FG% 41.9

The one thing all those guys have in common is that they were able to generate a much better point per shot output than Trey. Reason is simple - they are able to get to the FT line with their ability to get to the rim and finish because of the size and athleticism.

Let’s face it, Burke is a one dimensional player in the league, a jumpshooting guard that isn’t a threat to finish in traffic. You say let’s compare apples to apples - then restrict the conversation to unathletic, small guards. To attempt a comparison of Trey vs the above mentioned players isn’t very helpful because those guys are simply much more athletic and have size to finish. Not to mention Trey is a below average defender in the league, all of those guys above are way ahead of Trey in terms of defense.

My whole point of saying Trey isn’t a starting PG on a good team is that his ability is too limited to really flourish in the NBA. He can’t finish at the rim, he’s not a good defender, and he has a score first mentality. You’re left with a jump shooting PG that has to hit from midrange to be consistent. As a coach or GM, that’s not something that im comfortable with because a midrange jumper is generally considered the worst shot in basketball. To think that some people around here were throwing around the idea that Trey>MCW is really unfathomable in retrospect. College and NBA are different.

You’re missing the point. All of the guys I mentioned shot the ball poorly early in their careers. I’m not “comparing” Trey to Westbrook, I’m pointing out that the NBA requires all players to adjust, and most guys don’t enter the league as great players with no flaws.

If Trey turns out to be “only” Ty Lawson, Ty Lawson is a starter on an NBA playoff team (most years), and he’s pretty good. Parker, obviously, is a star and a guy who relies on the midrange game you decry.

All I’m saying is it’s ludicrous to draw strong conclusions about Trey after one year. Just as it’s similarly off base to decide Napier is better than Trey before he’s ever played an NBA game.

The same “can’t finish at the rim” criticism was leveled at Trey after his freshman year at Michigan, and he obviously figured it out. The kid works his tail off and I’m confident he’ll figure it out in the NBA too. Just like Nik will probably struggle for a year or two in the NBA before he figures out the right driving angles and shots.

I think you’re missing my point - It’s not just about shooting, in other words FG% doesn’t determine my projection of a player, it’s about overall ceiling and ability to produce in a multitude of ways. Trey simply can’t do that - he’s a jump shooter with limited upside because he’s a below average athlete. Lawson isn’t a relevant comparison - he is one of the fastest/quickest players in the league, and Trey is far from that.

How many 6 foot, slow guards that can’t finish and are score first players are starters in the NBA?

I don’t agree Trey is slow. And I think drawing conclusions after one year is absurd. Just like your stuff about DJ Wilson being a below average athlete, IMO, is going to look silly over the next few years. Parker averaged 9.2 a game, shot a poor percentage, and got to the line 2.1 times a game as a rookie. Good thing the Spurs didn’t immediately write him off. I haven’t looked at Conley’s numbers yet, but i’ll bet his first few years were weak. Mike Bibby didn’t come into his own for awhile, heck neither did Gary Payton. But I do loll forward to having this discussion again in a few years. :slight_smile:

By the way, Jameer Nelson. Starting PG on a team that reached the finals. Definitely no more athletic than Trey and no better at finishing.

The I am a better scout of basketball discussions than you are so fun to read. Glad to see you back buddy.

The I am a better scout of basketball discussions than you are so fun to read. Glad to see you back buddy.

Especially when they trash a Michigan legend.


I don’t think MattD is trashing Trey, he’s just giving his honest opinion. After watching about 20 Jazz games this year and looking at every box score after Trey played a game, I’d say his evaluation is pretty realistic. I do think it’s silly to suggest that Trey won’t get better though. Give him a couple years in the league to adjust to the speed and physicality of the NBA and I truly believe his ceiling is a poor man’s Tony Parker, which is pretty damn good. I think it’s ridiculous to assume that Trey won’t get any better and history proves that with practically any player that isn’t a bust. I won’t comment on Shabazz being better though because There’s really no evidence to support that and we won’t know until Napier finishes his rookie year. I think Napier will struggle on the Heat because he will have to defer to Lebron (assuming he comes back) and Wade when it comes to ball handling and Napier likes to have the ball in his hands as much as possible.

Guys I understand this is an uphill battle - we’re talking Trey Burke at a UM site, and my opinion of him in the league isn’t favorable. That being said, a number of you a few years back thought Trey>MCW, which is a joke if we’re being honest. Just using that as an example to reference the homerism and lack of objectivity.

For the record, I’m not trashing Trey. He was absolutely great…AT MICHIGAN. The thing is , UM is not the league, defenders are quicker, faster, and bigger. You’re finishing against Dwight Howard and Serge Ibaka rather than Jordan Morgan and Frank Kaminsky.

I have no doubt Trey will get better, but that’s not the original argument I made…, I simply sad I don’t think Trey can be a starting PG on a high quality team. Not enough diversity to his game in my view.

That being said, im going to respectfully bow out of this debate and I appreciate all of the different views out there, it’s what makes the site great. Hopefully we can rehash this discussion in a few years and see who had the better projections, and hopefully I look like a fool.

Great debate guys…im out

MattD, it’s just choosing words more carefully. You actually did a fine job in this most recent post, with one notable exception that I’ll point out to illustrate my point:

“a number of you a few years back thought Trey>MCW, which is a joke if we’re being honest. Just using that as an example to reference the homerism and lack of objectivity.”

Besides the fact that I could find 10 articles from non-UM sources in the next 3 minutes that predict Burke would be a better pro than MCW, I’d like to just point out one fact…

Burke was drafted higher than MCW.

So…maybe just relax and accept that those thinking that Burke could end up contributing to a high quality team are not in fact “homers” that “lack objectivity”. You can disagree without calling something a “joke”.

MCW was not good. He played on the fastest pace team in the NBA in mostly garbage time.