Wrote a lot about Alstork/Johnson in today’s post
I like the fit for Alstork a bit more because he can fill some of that PNR void. If DJ Wilson goes, I think Johnson becomes significantly more important.
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He’s definitely a better passer/rebounder/athlete than Robinson from what I’ve watched. I just think he would fill a very similar role on the wing.
lack of depth at 2-3 is a major weakness. We have MAAR and CW as starter. Neither can comfortably back each other’s position. On bench there is Ibi Watson, Poole (for 2) and DR (for 3). DR is serviceable but a liability on defense but i think that his main duty is at 4 either to replace DJ or when DJ slide to center. Ibi shows little as a freshman, Poole can shoot but just a freshman. i think a veteran 2/3 wing can easily be the top 7 in the rotation.
Here is an article about Johnson after his shortened freshmen season at Pitts. He was a late bloomer, played PG before grew 6 inches his high school junior year. he has the guard skills and Robinson is a forward.
He’s a good passer. He’s a more complete player than Duncan, I just think he’d play a similar spot/role on this team. I don’t think he’d be a primary ball screen guy on this roster (and I’m saying that with the understanding that I’m not sure who will be).
I definitely like his game and obviously a guy that can shoot, pass and attack closeouts has a fit in this offense. Just not sure he’d be at the top of my list in terms of what the roster needs.
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The flip side to this argument… maybe Charles Matthews can be that guy (tough to say definitively either way right now) to create off the pnr and off the bounce and giving him a guy like Johnson to kick the ball to will just help.
I haven’t watched the video on Alstork yet and am only going off stats alone but his turnover averages scare me quite a bit…even when he wasn’t such a high usage guy he still averaged more turnovers than assists as a freshman. Not sure how I feel about bringing him in to be a primary ballscreen creator, but for those that have seen more than I have, is this a legitimate concern?
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It’s a very big concern for me. Against pretty low competition, he still turned it over A LOT. Imagine him playing against bigger, better athletes. I’d pass as of now but if we can’t get anyone else out of the 100s of kids transferring, we should take him. Plus his fg% is 40, which is also pretty poor.
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Concern? Yes. Deal breaker? No.
Wright State had a low turnover rate in 2016 and Alstork had a low turnover rate (12.9%). Wright State had a high turnover rate in 2017 and Alstork had a high turnover rate (23.1%).
I think turnovers can be a product of how the team plays and in this case there was obviously a big shift with the coaching change.
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Averaging a turnover more a game than assists is always a concern to me. Also, taking that up a level is an even bigger concern. I’m not saying we shouldn’t take him because I’ve never been a big fan of MAAR the player(love the person) but it’s definitely not a hurry an offer situation IMO. Let J.R. Smith be the best player on your team and that’s what you’d get IMO. Lots of shots at a low percent and tons of turnovers.
I like the film I’ve seen but that’s just it, everyone has a good film put together on their game. Being a role player on a good team could help him become a better player. Take him if he’s the best option out there.
I’d take him in a heartbeat. Way more of a sure thing than Matthews for next year.
Yeah I can deal with Alstork’s weak A/TO ratio given he does so many other things well. We are really going to be lacking at guard play next year.
Obviously the front line is really deep and even on the wing, Robinson isn’t the best defender but he’s solid and Mathews will be in his 3rd year.
MAAR is a nice guard but other than him, X is still fresh and a bunch of newbies coming that we just don’t know about yet. And I really don’t see X and MAAR being a great backcourt combo for an entire game.
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Cam Johnson is not a Duncan Robinson. That’s where Ken Pom and all the other metrics can get plenty of folks in trouble trying to draw comparisons. Johnson has the ability score at all three levels and has versatility. Robinson is a 3 pt shooter who can’t create his own shot. Beilein would take full advantage of what CJ can do.
I’d take Johnson first because we would have him for two years, then Astork. Both great options though.
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In the likely, devastating aftermath of missing out on Bomba, I’d rather have Astork because he really fits in nicely with our inexperienced guards and add some nice shooting ability. I have faith the Johnny B and our offense will clean up his game.
He’s better than Duncan Robinson, but they have almost identical splits of two and three-point attempts. As far as I can tell his shots come off of catch and shoot attempts or drives at closeouts. He plays out of the PNR game, but is almost always looking to pass (more out of Pitt’s DHO offense). He does seem to have really good passing ability which is impressive.
The one area he does have an obvious advantage is defensively and on the glass with his length and athleticism over Duncan.
Offensively though, I think they’d play very similar roles.
As far as scoring in all three levels, I assume you mean at the rim, in the midrange and from three. He attempted 13% of his shots in the mid-range and shot 33% and 18% of FGA at the rim and shot 54%. Those are pretty much numbers for a guy who is primarily a catch-and-shoot guy (2/3 of his attempts were threes & 2/3 of attempts were catch and shoot).
For comparison… a guy like Irvin attempted 25% of shots at the rim, 39% in mid-range and 36% from three. That’s kind of the split I would call a three-level scorer and Irvin was labeled fairly one-dimensional by many.
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I wonder if people are over-rating the type of player Michigan is likely to get as a grad-transfer. Alstork was first team All-Horizon League, shot well from deep as the team’s best player, can make plays for others. Johnson hit 42% from 3 and scored 12 pts a game and apparently is athletic enough to defend multiple positions. It is debatable which is a better option, or whether it would be better to save the scholly for a four-year player, etc., but if Michigan does go the grad-transfer route it’s unlikely they’ll get a player significantly better than these guys. Especially when considering that JB will probably be more picky with things like fit and academic seriousness.
coming from a high major school, CJ seems to be more of a sure thing than Alstork. But Alstork’s time line allows us to wait for Bamba’s decision, not sure if someone would snap CJ sooner.
Take CJ and Alstork if DJ leaves and when Bamba goes to Duke/UK?
Honestly, I’d take either guy based on what I know of them (which is pretty limited to what’s been posted on this site). As I said in the Jordan Poole thread, I think we need 1 more shooter off the bench to pair with Duncan and can give us a different look. I think whoever we bring off the bench at the 1-4 spots is going to need to be capable of providing instant offense.
My only question/concern…does bringing in one of these guys (while probably improving our team for 2017) actually hurt the development of Poole/Brooks/Livers by limiting their opportunities? I include Livers because conceivably Duncan would be coming in at the 4 more often if we land one of these two transfers.