the we have X/Teske thing is a good start but having two non floor spacing guys to rely on with no creators and questions/hope for shooting potential is a dangerous place to live
we’ve seen what happens to golden states spacing when they are limited (w/without klay and kd) with non shooters/bigs playing. i think the “we have teske/x” is a simple answer to whats required for a complex problem
Exactly. Individually we have 2 proven good players, a 3rd good player that hopefully can take on higher usage. But it’s easy to see them not blending into a proper offense. If you give Beilein these same 10 guys, I would still not be confident. Add in that Juwan is most certainly not as good as Beilein, you can see where things could go wrong.
Presumably the offense would be based on the P/R, since those two are elite at doing that. Livers, as a piece, falls into place because you want to surround that P/R with good spacing. So it’s a matter of getting two more heavy-minutes shooters, and one more to play a smaller role off the bench. A few of those guys should be decent defenders, and maybe you can hide one or two crappy defenders.
That’s not a ton of variables that need to fall into place. With those shooters you feel a lot better about Z/T/L getting their 40 ppg in an efficient way and, if you want to look at it that way, helping the rest of the team that needs to score its 30-35 ppg to get the quality looks it will require. My thinking is that you need 60 mpg of shotmaking, passing and reasonable defense from a group including Nunez, Brooks, DDJ, Johns, the now-reasonably-hefty Bajema, and whomever else can be brought in at this point, including Wagner or the CSU transfer or whomever else. Maybe if the NCAA hammer comes down hard that shakes loose a few '19 recruits? But as of now that’s a group of five guys to fill 2.5 spots.
Either way, plenty could go wrong and even if the right ingredients are there for all we know this staff could screw it up or there’s just a piece missing in the way that there sometimes can be. But we’re just not that far off having enough pieces.
These are all just maybes and unknowns. That’s what makes it hard to predict Michigan ahead of so many teams right now.
I think Beilein’s presence for two to four years had a lot to do with his exceptional player development. I’m less enthusiastic that Juwan Howard will be able to help those players improve at the same rate JB did, but the jury is out there obviously.
And Romeo was a lottery talent, I personally feel like his pedigree was enough to consider him a proven commodity.
Sure. Michigan has more unknowns than some other teams. I just feel like as long as you have those shooters in the lineup things will fall into place, and if you are counting on a group of guys that is large enough so that you need only 50% half of them to meet expectations, that’s reason for optimism. There’s probably a hard ceiling on this group in that it can’t be expected to truly contend for the conference championship though. And all this presumes that Howard thinks the same thing about what to do with an elite P/R combo as a starting point on offense.
Just my guess, Dylan, as I haven’t been around here all that long, but it seems like you’re minded to evaluate based on knowns and discount projections, and not to assume things about the sophmores, which is certainly prudent.
Nah, I’m just pointing out how much projection and how many assumptions you have to make to get Michigan to the point where some people seem to think they should be ranked. Even your last post includes the word “presumes”.
If you get a grad transfer, Franz Wagner and Brandon Johns has a breakout sophomore year then Michigan will be great. Sure. We need some proof that a couple of those things are happening first.
Sure. Fair enough. I owe you a listen to the podcast before I really and truly comment, so I’ll do that.
In listening to the podcast, I was surprised Torvik had 7 Big 10 teams in their top 21. That sees a bit much and unrealistic. They had Michigan 8th in the conference but 34th overall. That seems quite reasonable to have Michigan ranked there. Maybe even a bit generous based on the current roster.
I don’t see Michigan cracking top four, but they could jump up to five or six in the conference if things fall into place. I think MSU, Purdue, OSU, and Maryland are all safe top-four bets. Then you have (according to Torvik) PSU, Illinois, and Wisconsin ahead of Michigan. Teams 5-8 all have question marks and a team lower down could jump up too, like Indiana. If you set the over/under at 7.5 for Michigan’s finishing spot in the Big Ten, I think it’s a near toss-up.
I keep telling myself if MSU could replace Jaren Jackson, Miles Bridges and Josh Langford with a walk-on, a true freshman, and a senior that had never been a primary starter his whole career and somehow get better…then Michigan can do it too. Beilein leaving just makes that a little bit tougher
I would not label Purdue as a safe top-four bet. They will be facing a complete overhaul in style. Edwards and Cline were saviors that gave them an identity and a crutch. There are just way too many “maybes” in terms of outside shooting, which is what generated all of their momentum last season.
Purdue lost almost 60% of their scoring from 3 players who started all 36 games. Moreover, they lost 74% of their 977 three-point attempts, which is saying a lot for a team whose 3-point rate was above the 90th percentile at 46% (3FGA/FGA).
All of that is to say that Purdue next season will look like nothing at all like Purdue last season. Maybe they’ll be another top 4ish team in the conference along with MSU, MD, and OSU (or someone else), or maybe they’ll be like Purdue was the 6 seasons before Edwards arrived. I’m reminded of how displeased Purdue fans were with their coach before Edwards arrived. Either his teams performed poorly in the Big Ten and never made it to the tournament or they never made it past the first weekend.
The good news for Purdue is that the conference looks to take at least a slight step back. The losses suffered at Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Rutgers are not minor.
Lets all cheer on the M baseball team at the College World Series in Omaha. GO BLUE!
We don’t have much evidence that we have those shooters in place though.