I realize I always see through maize and blue glasses, but it befuddles me how this season’s team, with Zavier, Teske, and Livers at its core along with some highly regarded—some still unproven—complementary players, is projected not to make the NCAA tourney. Seems like the bottom would have to fall out in that scenario. Does the transition of a new coach and new system really “lower the team’s floor” that much? A honest question to those more educated: what am I not understanding here?
Meh, I wouldn’t take Lindy’s projections too seriously. There are a lot of inconsistencies in the mag and you can tell that different people did different sections of the mag (i.e. the NCAA tourney projection vs conference standings).
Overall, I think fifth sounds pretty reasonable for a conference protection.
Yes, I think fifth is a reasonable prediction in the B1G as well, but I can’t foresee 36 at-large teams having a better resume than U-M at season’s close, based on the very scientific criteria of my best hunch. Your point makes sense. I haven’t read the article, but did the roster include Franz?
The roster did include Franz and he was mentioned as a key newcomer but the Big Ten recruiting blurb didn’t.
Yeah there is no chance that Michigan misses the tourney if they finish fifth in the B1G.
I wouldn’t say no way (the non-conference could easily go south, for example) but it seems unlikely for sure.
A 5th place B1G finish would be a great start for Juwan. It sounds about right too 5th place finish and an 8-9 seed in the tournament seems like an attainable goal with the roster as is for the upcoming season. No way a the 5th place team in the Big ten doesn’t make the tourney
Grains of salt all around; suggest liberal use.
Gains of salt, the primary diet for basketball fans in September
With Oregon at 35, I think it’s a safe bet this went to press before they landed Juiston, Dante, and Patterson.
Juiston, Mathis, Wur and Dante are all on Oregon’s listed roster. No Patterson.
IMO: I don’t see the B1G 5th place finisher not making the tourney especially with SOS on your side.
Even without Patterson, 35 seems like a ridiculous preseason placement for that team, no? Is it possible Juiston and Dante were just added to the listed roster at the last minute, and Lindy’s didn’t take the time to adjust the rankings accordingly?
Yes, it is completely possible. I would say I probably disagree with most of the analysis in the mag and it is filled with inconsistencies.
Teams finishing 5th or better and missing tournament (2002-Current)
2018 Nebraska 4th (tied)
2017 Iowa 5th (tied)
2010 Illinois 5th
2009 Penn St. 4th (tied)
2008 OSU 5th
2007 Iowa 5th (tied)
2005 Indiana 4th (tied)
2004 Iowa 4th, Michigan 5th (tied), Northwestern 5th (tied)
2003 Michigan 3rd (tied)
Rare, but possible. To be fair, most of these examples were in the 11 team Big Ten, where 5th isn’t as impressive as in a 14 team league.
Nebraska had a just awful SOS in 2018, which won’t be a problem for Michigan this year. 2017 Iowa is a better example, but they were in a 4 way tie for 5th so for tournament purposes they have as much claim to 8th as 5th place since there were 7 other Big Ten teams with as good or better record. If Michigan is in a 4-5 team tie for 5th, sure they could hypothetically miss the tourney, but if it is 5th outright I would find it highly unlikely.
I’m not worried about no team with Xavier simpson on it…now that we have a great coaching staff and ( I believe) most of us is over Beliein leaving - i believe this team can do big things. We may take some bumps early in our schedule but this team can be good so 5th seems right about but I believe that we may actually turn heads and end up higher. This team would’ve been so much better with Jalen wilson but I am not more confident now since beliein left and most stayed on board.
2003 Michigan should not count. NCAA probation self inflicted by AD Bill Martin.
Sure, but we would not have made it anyway