Fair enough. I took his comment to read that he’d give some of Brooks minutes to Zeb (5-10) and knock down the 35 to about 30. Don’t take it as disagreement…more so that I see Brooks a lock to be >30.
If Johns only plays 10 mpg, I’d expect him to transfer next year. I’d think he will play at least 15-18 mpg in some fashion
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No I believe Brooks will be a lock to play over 30, I just think more than 35 is a bit extreme. I’d say about 32-33 is how many he will play next year.
I think Zeb is a much different caliber of player than Nunez though in terms of where he’s at. Zeb was consistently labeled a top 100 guy who had the entire Big Ten and Big East recruiting him before he committed to Michigan as a junior. That’s impressive. I think he will fairly consistently get around 5-12 minutes per game this year at the 1 and 2 at the beginning of the season. If he’s legit 6’5 now then maybe even occasionally at the 3. I don’t think he gets much more than 12 minutes this year though with all the upperclassmen Michigan has.
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I honestly think Johns will transfer even if he’s getting 18 mpg this year. For him to stay I think he’d have to be playing like north of 21/22 minutes per game this year. I hope he does too because I believe his upside is high but he’s never mentally quite unlocked his full potential imo. Got all the talent and physical gifts.
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I still think our best lineup this year is with Brandon playing a ton of minutes at the 5.
The idea that Austin Davis would play 15-20 minutes on a good team is just something I can’t get behind… the good he provided last year seems to me like relatively unsustainable post scoring and bad defense and he only played 10 mins per game. Now coming off shoulder surgery? I would put Davis closer to Nunez/Zeb than I would the rest of the rotation
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I think Davis is really a 12-15mpg guy and if he’s playing more consistently then that may not bode well. I love his effort and he does some things well, but 15mpg is about it. I think the question is Dickinson. If he moves well enough on defense to stay on the court for 20 minutes - awesome. That unlocks a lot for us. I expect early in the season that he’ll struggle at times and hover also around that 15mpg. Johns has a chance to unlock our best defensive lineup early in the year and steal minutes at the 5. I don’t know how much will be there at the 4 with the other three forwards.
I hope it works out that Johns is getting about 15mpg give or take and showing some promise. Then they can sell him on being the leader next year.
I’m in the same boat. There will be games against pick and pop fives where Davis is unplayable, so hard to see him getting up to 15. And any falloff in his post finishing would really kill his value to the point where anymore than like 5 minutes a game would be a disaster. Also I don’t enjoy watching somebody who never passes. Whenever he’s fed in the post the rest of the team can just head back on defense.
Men I thought I was the lowest on AD in the board but I guess I’m just 2nd 
I guess I missed where defenders came off of their perimeter shooters to double Davis.
It happened and resulted in him having a 20.9% TO rate.
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Yeah the 1.6% assist rate and 20.9% turnover rate speaks to the fact that Davis isn’t a threat (maybe a negative threat) as a playmaker out of the post.
I suspect Hunter Dickinson’s assist numbers will be significantly better – that’s a huge strength of his game.
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I’m not going to try and defend Davis as a 20mpg player who will be a difference maker for Michigan. His ceiling is low and I don’t want to imply otherwise.
But I do think this thread started to go a little far in the negative direction with his expectations. In Beilein’s last season he was unplayable - a disaster waiting to happen. Last year with Juwan he exceeded all (admittedly low) expectations and demonstrated an ability to screen and roll, catch and finish, and seal off his man. Perhaps there’s a little more untapped potential there with Juwan as his coach.
Davis will always have physical limitations and is unlikely to develop a jump shot. But he knows who he is and has found a way to add value under Juwan. Hopefully Dickinson and Johns are able to handle most of the minutes at the 5 but I think Davis can add a productive 10-15mpg.
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I’m definitely less scared of “Austin Davis: rotation player” than I would be of “Adrian Nunez: rotation player.”
So he’s got that.
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Would you have felt the same way before last year? I am not, repeat not, advocating a rotation slot for Nunez, but I will say that his chance of improving between his sophomore and junior seasons to be the 40% 3 point shooter JB envisioned when we signed him, certainly aren’t less than the chance I saw last year that Davis would improve as he did between his third and fourth years in the program with a new coach to boot. And at 40%, Nunez would play some, regardless of other deficiencies.
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Before last year I would have said “let’s give most of the bench guys a little time to see what they can do.”
And I think last year both guys got an appropriate series of chances to show what they could do. Howard, far more than Beilein, made sure to give each guys some shifts to see what happened. Davis took advantage of his and worked his way into the #2 spot and provided some valuable minutes. Nunez did nothing with his and kept getting them. Castleton struggled in his shifts and lost opportunity.
I think Nunez has a harder path to playing time because his secondary skills (defense, ball handling, passing, rebounding) are not good enough to justify him being on the floor so he has to hit 40% - not to mention the competition at his position. He’s a 21% shooter.
(The only mystery is why Howard didn’t give the same chances to Bajema last year…)
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If Austin Davis didn’t make every single cheeky reverse layup or up-and-under he took last year I don’t think he would be as much a part of the discussion in the first place 
Davis can finish well and still provide an awful overall performance. In the last OSU game Davis played 15 minutes and scored 8 points on 4-4 shooting. He also had three turnovers and an ORTG of 79.1. Given that he is a defensive liability that comes out to an overall poor performance despite being perfect from the floor. He is just so limited that he has such little margin for error. I don’t think a freshman Dickinson will be good enough to overcome Davis playing 15 minutes a game without the center position being a net negative for Michigan.
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I’m guessing you’re putting a lot of hope into Brandon Johns: possible center? Because I’m there with ya.
That’s why I’m really hoping it is just “coach chatting with the media” when you hear Martelli say they hadn’t considered Johns as a 5 yet from a few weeks ago or Howard talk about Faulds as the #3 center recently. They have to see the need for Johns to at least be prepared there, right? The biggest issue with the three true centers right now is that they all share a similar physical profile - which may be a weakness against some of the better centers in the league.
Yeah, I’m hoping Johns breaks through and plays 25 minutes a game at the five personally.
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