Aubrey Dawkins emerged in Big Ten play this year and was the best 3-point shooter on the roster, but I think we would all agree that he needs to get stronger – physically, on the glass and with his handle – this summer.
Michigan adds another shooter (Dawkins) and we don’t know what LeVert is going to do. There’s also the possibility of DJ Wilson and Kam Chatman infringing on some of Dawkins’ minutes at the four – which probably isn’t his natural position anyways.
How does Dawkins, who played heavy minutes down the stretch this year, fit in next season?
I see lots of upside to Dawkins. I think he is better than GRIII was as a Freshman. He is nearly as athletic and can shoot way better. I think his best position is the 3. As Dylan said, like most freshman, he needs to get stronger and improve his handle, which I assume he will. His playing time will be greatly influenced by LeVert’s decision and if Irvin moves to the 3. With his ability to score in a variety of ways, we need to get him on the floor.
He’s been described as a gym rat. I expect him to put in the work and become a more well rounded player. The nice thing is that the shot will always be there.
Just think he needs to find more of a nose for the ball, especially on the glass. He has the athleticism, but he doesn’t really have it in him to just go grab the ball when it’s up there. Spike Albrecht had a higher defensive rebounding rate… That’s a concern.
I see Dawkins as a likely starter at the 3/4 next year, along with Irvin, whether LeVert stays or not. If he shows the kind of improvement that I think we can reasonably expect, I don’t see either Chatman or Robinson doing better. And I’d be surprised if Wilson takes minutes away at the 4. If Beilein goes according to form, he will play basically one big at a time, and that’ll be Doyle, Wilson and Donnal in rotation.
I don’t see Dawkins starting next year, with or without Caris. Pencil in either Caris or MAAR at the 2, Irvin at the 3, and I think Kam reclaims his spot at the 4…at least initially.
15-25 mpg, depending on roster additions, but minimally key off bench with decent shot at starting. Densive rebounding stunk, but he started to attack the offensive boards for piutback slams near the end, which if he keeps that up and gains strength how can he not be on the floor. The only other guy capable potentially of doing that would be Wilson. Dawkins also did a good job anticipating passes for steals and transition dunks, which again we don’t see much of on our roster. At this point I’m guessing starter but has to get get stronger and rebound too.
I don't see Dawkins starting next year, with or without Caris. Pencil in either Caris or MAAR at the 2, Irvin at the 3, and I think Kam reclaims his spot at the 4.......at least initially.
In the last four games, Dawkins’ point totals were 21/31/18/5. Chatman’s were 0/13/0/0. Not sure how you can sensibly project from that (or from anything else that happened last year) that Chatman is going to leapfrog Dawkins for playing time and a starting spot. Sure, Chatman has the potential to improve. But so does Dawkins. The fact that Chatman has more room to improve relative to his initial expectations does not guarantee that he has a greater capacity to improve. Chatman did not have the kind of season you expect from a true freshman who’s going to become a quality starter. He looks more like a role player, and probably a bench player, next year.
I don't see Dawkins starting next year, with or without Caris. Pencil in either Caris or MAAR at the 2, Irvin at the 3, and I think Kam reclaims his spot at the 4.......at least initially.
In the last four games, Dawkins’ point totals were 21/31/18/5. Chatman’s were 0/13/0/0. Not sure how you can sensibly project from that (or from anything else that happened last year) that Chatman is going to leapfrog Dawkins for playing time and a starting spot. Sure, Chatman has the potential to improve. But so does Dawkins. The fact that Chatman has more room to improve relative to his initial expectations does not guarantee that he has a greater capacity to improve. Chatman did not have the kind of season you expect from a true freshman who’s going to become a quality starter. He looks more like a role player, and probably a bench player, next year.
While I totally agree with you on Chatman, the starting lineup isn’t necessarily about individual production, but rather the fit in sum. According to your logic utilized above, we would start Walton, Spike, Caris, Dawkins, Irvin…uh yeah, that’s not going to happen.
Need roster balance, and honestly Dawkins is best suited for the 2/3, but doesn’t have the requsite ballhandling to be a true wing, which is why I think he’s much better suited for a bench role next year. I like Walton, Caris/MAAR, Irvin, Chatman, Doyle as the starting lineup. 2 creators (assuming Caris stays or 1.5 if not), 1 big, and Chatman who is a decent defensive rebounder and passer, and at least 2 of those players are good catch and shoot guys. If you replace any of those guys excluding Doyle, you lose creation and don’t really gain a whole lot because Dawkins is a horrible rebounder and doesn’t generate his own offense.
And Chatman is a terrible shooter, who not only doesn’t generate his own offense, but can’t even generate offense with his teammates’ help. Just to repeat, in the last four games, Dawkins scored 75 and Chatman scored 13 (all against a weak Rutgers team). Not sure how much “creation” you think Chatman is going to do to make up for that kind of differential. Consistently scoring zero points is not a good “fit” in any lineup I’d care to see out there. Chatman’s rebounding and assist numbers are not anywhere close to good enough compared to Dawkins’ to make up for pointless stat lines. He’s not Dennis Rodman.
I don't see Dawkins starting next year, with or without Caris. Pencil in either Caris or MAAR at the 2, Irvin at the 3, and I think Kam reclaims his spot at the 4.......at least initially.
In the last four games, Dawkins’ point totals were 21/31/18/5. Chatman’s were 0/13/0/0. Not sure how you can sensibly project from that (or from anything else that happened last year) that Chatman is going to leapfrog Dawkins for playing time and a starting spot. Sure, Chatman has the potential to improve. But so does Dawkins. The fact that Chatman has more room to improve relative to his initial expectations does not guarantee that he has a greater capacity to improve. Chatman did not have the kind of season you expect from a true freshman who’s going to become a quality starter. He looks more like a role player, and probably a bench player, next year.
While I totally agree with you on Chatman, the starting lineup isn’t necessarily about individual production, but rather the fit in sum. According to your logic utilized above, we would start Walton, Spike, Caris, Dawkins, Irvin…uh yeah, that’s not going to happen.
Need roster balance, and honestly Dawkins is best suited for the 2/3, but doesn’t have the requsite ballhandling to be a true wing, which is why I think he’s much better suited for a bench role next year. I like Walton, Caris/MAAR, Irvin, Chatman, Doyle as the starting lineup. 2 creators (assuming Caris stays or 1.5 if not), 1 big, and Chatman who is a decent defensive rebounder and passer, and at least 2 of those players are good catch and shoot guys. If you replace any of those guys excluding Doyle, you lose creation and don’t really gain a whole lot because Dawkins is a horrible rebounder and doesn’t generate his own offense.
Except he’s comparing two players of the same position, not the entire team.
JB - they really don’t play the same position, they only play the same position from a formal standpont because that is what injuries dictated/JB mandated. Dawkins is a 2/3, while Kam is a 4…2 totally different types of players. Bottom line is that you lose too much rebounding Dawkins in my opinion, and Kam has the potential to make his teammates better, whereas Dawkins does not.
JB - they really don't play the same position, they only play the same position from a formal standpont because that is what injuries dictated/JB mandated. Dawkins is a 2/3, while Kam is a 4............2 totally different types of players. Bottom line is that you lose too much rebounding Dawkins in my opinion, and Kam has the potential to make his teammates better, whereas Dawkins does not.
They key word with Kam is potential. I am perhaps Kam’s biggest advocate on this board, but there is currently a wide gulf between what I think Kam can do and what he currently brings to the table. Unless he improves substantially over the summer, our best lineup will probably be Dawkins at the 4 on offense with Irvin likely guarding the opposition’s 4. It’s not ideal, and that is why it is so important that the light comes on for Kam next year.
And Chatman is a terrible shooter, who not only doesn't generate his own offense, but can't even generate offense with his teammates' help. Just to repeat, in the last four games, Dawkins scored 75 and Chatman scored 13 (all against a weak Rutgers team). Not sure how much "creation" you think Chatman is going to do to make up for that kind of differential. Consistently scoring zero points is not a good "fit" in any lineup I'd care to see out there. Chatman's rebounding and assist numbers are not anywhere close to good enough compared to Dawkins' to make up for pointless stat lines. He's not Dennis Rodman.
Dawkins also played 148 minutes over the last 4 games, while Kam played 51. Incidentally, they both grabbed 8 rbs and dished out 3 asts in those 4 games, with Dawkins playing 3 times as many minutes.
And four games is a somewhat arbitrary choice. If you look at the last 6 games, Chatman had 26 pts in 79 minutes (.33 pts per min), including good games against OSU and MD, tourney teams, while Dawkins had 82 pts in 212 minutes (.39 pts per min). While Dawkins did better scoring-wise, it’s the difference of about 2.4 pts per forty minutes.
Of course, minutes played indicates the coaches’ trust. And Aubrey clearly had a better year than Kam. Aubrey is also a year older than Kam and played much higher level high school competition. Kam, to my eye, is a more creative and aggressive passer, and is taller and a better rebounder. He does look to generate offense for others and was better at it than Aubrey – remember, Kam was a pg until a late growth spurt and his AAU team basically ran everything through him. Aubrey is a better shooter (although I am not discounting Kam as a terrible shooter quite yet). And they could both even start - if Caris leaves, it would not shock me if the starter lineup at 2-4 was Irvin, Dawkins, Chatman. I’m glad to have both of them.
I think Dawkins would be the perfect 6 man no matter what Caris decides. He is athletic as all hell, can jump through the gym, and shoot the lights out of a place. Someone like that would be great off the bench. The kid really has a bright future.
I think Dawkins would be the perfect 6 man no matter what Caris decides. He is athletic as all hell, can jump through the gym, and shoot the lights out of a place. Someone like that would be great off the bench. The kid really has a bright future.
While Dawkins has very good verticality, I certainly wouldn’t classify him as athletic as all hell. Doesn’t really possess good lateral agility or strength. Can’t really speak to his straight line speed. 1 component out of 4 doesn’t make a player an elite athlete