The obvious point, I think, is that both Nik and Duncan were lights out against weak competition, but once the season went on, they faced better teams, got tired, and tailed off (other than Nik’s sensational game against Florida, though to be fair Duncan came up big in the Northwestern BTT game too).
And the key for Nik in his sophomore year, I think, was all the work he did in the weight room during the summer. Hopefully that will be the key for Duncan as well. Both are great shooters, both had to make adjustments to become great Big Ten players. Nik did, Duncan’s ability to do that is to be determined.
One thing about Robinson I find interesting is him vs. Jalen Coleman. I remember Matt saying when we got Duncan how much we’d regret it and how much better Coleman would be overall. [edit: found Matt’s specific posts just for reference].
Who would’ve thought Duncan would blow Coleman out of the water in terms of the efficiency stats. He had a 124 ORtg compared to Coleman’s 106. His TS% was 6% better. His defensive rebound rate was 12.2% while Coleman’s was 7.6%. He had double the assist rate of Coleman with a lower turnvover rate. He shot better than Jalen from both 2P and 3P with the same free throw rate. He had more than twice Coleman’s block rate and around the same steal rate. Obviously there’s the whole defensive factor but I’d say I’m very happy with the choice Beilein made.
I think the problem the Coleman fans can never quite explain is that at his height (6-3), he really isn’t an ideal two guard, and we never saw him as a point. He can shoot, and I think he would be much better playing for us than he was at Illinois, but he wasn’t a no-brainer to the point where it was silly for us to take Robinson and move on. He wasn’t, for example, remotely close to being a Tyus Battle or Josh Langford type of talent. Or at least so it seems thus far.
