Offer Day

Will admit, I skipped through most of this. Here’s my wishlist for offers tomorrow/subsequent commits

PG - Thornton, followed by Goodin, followed by Winston
SG - Battle, followed by Murray (would much prefer Battle, but Murray would give us some good flexibility)
Wing - Leaf, followed by Towns (I would take both, not expecting the Towns offer now lately)
Big/Center - Swanigan, Teske (Swanigan almost def. gets offered, Teske may be most likely Big prospect to commit, and I think this class will need one)

Tomorrow will be an awesome day.

Very hopeful of an early decision from Thornton, if not immediately than by summers end. If this happens it seems highly logical he will have a HUGE impact on potentially influencing Battle and Leaf. Agree with Guestavo on the Blue Bloods prioritizing others over Battle, super talent out there with Tatum, Langford, Simmons and others. They can’t get them all can they? Plus there does seem to be a stable of players at his position at Duke and UK, but what’s new. Don’t think Swanigan is realistic, will be surprised if there is any mutual interest. Would love to see us go after Leaf with all we got, if and when Thornton acts. Who wouldn’t want to play with this kid? Goodin seems to have really short arms, anybody else see that?

Very hopeful of an early decision from Thornton, if not immediately than by summers end. If this happens it seems highly logical he will have a HUGE impact on potentially influencing Battle and Leaf. Agree with Guestavo on the Blue Bloods prioritizing others over Battle, super talent out there with Tatum, Langford, Simmons and others. They can't get them all can they? Plus there does seem to be a stable of players at his position at Duke and UK, but what's new. Don't think Swanigan is realistic, will be surprised if there is any mutual interest. Would love to see us go after Leaf with all we got, if and when Thornton acts. Who wouldn't want to play with this kid? Goodin seems to have really short arms, anybody else see that?

Goodin has a 6-6 wingspan at 6-2 barefoot
http://forum.umhoops.com/discussion/865/elite-100-roster#latest

Very hopeful of an early decision from Thornton, if not immediately than by summers end. If this happens it seems highly logical he will have a HUGE impact on potentially influencing Battle and Leaf. Agree with Guestavo on the Blue Bloods prioritizing others over Battle, super talent out there with Tatum, Langford, Simmons and others. They can't get them all can they? Plus there does seem to be a stable of players at his position at Duke and UK, but what's new. Don't think Swanigan is realistic, will be surprised if there is any mutual interest. Would love to see us go after Leaf with all we got, if and when Thornton acts. Who wouldn't want to play with this kid? Goodin seems to have really short arms, anybody else see that?

Goodin has a 6-6 wingspan at 6-2 barefoot
http://forum.umhoops.com/discussion/865/elite-100-roster#latest

Yeah saw those measurables from the Elite Camp just now. Hard to argue with them.

Seth Towns seems to LOVE Michigan, what are the chances that if we don’t offer him that he still comes as a preferred walk-on?

On Towns, he has some good offers from other schools already (among them, I believe Xavier). He won’t walk on. Some people thought Devin Oliver might walk on due to the Kalamazoo promise thing, but he didn’t. I’ve never seen a kid other than Lee Melchionni (who only had Ivy League offers) walk on somewhere over taking a scholarship.

Yeah I didn’t think that he’d give up free college just to come here, where playing time is far from guaranteed.

I think we offer tomorrow and he commits shortly thereafter, but we’ll see of course.

He may even commit on the spot

I agree we need a wing in '16.

Winston is a poor defender? He locked up Thorton (and vice versa) last weekend who is an explosive player, maybe one of the most explosive kids in the country.

I have also seen CW live 3-4 times. Don’t get confused /misled about Winston’s game. While I prefer Derryck in this class, Winston is a close second, some have even called him the better player. Sometimes players just have that it to thier game, Cassius has that. Murry and Goodin are a step below.

Should be a great day and certainly interesting. I wanted to thank all you guys for the detailed analysis and content about the recruits. It’s been great getting the consolidated feedback in one spot and places this board above the rest. The future looks bright and I think the limited offer strategy could take hold this week.

Really hope we get early commits to inspire others to jump. Regardless of what happens, the core is solid and the bar has been raised!

Go Blue!

I agree we need a wing in '16.

Winston is a poor defender? He locked up Thorton (and vice versa) last weekend who is an explosive player, maybe one of the most explosive kids in the country.

I have also seen CW live 3-4 times. Don’t get confused /misled about Winston’s game. While I prefer Derryck in this class, Winston is a close second, some have even called him the better player. Sometimes players just have that it to thier game, Cassius has that. Murry and Goodin are a step below.

First off, he didn’t “lock up” Thornton. To call him a close second to Thornton is a bit of an exaggeration, no? I think most would agree that Thornton is far superior to Winston.

I’ve seen Winston live at a distance of literally 5 feet from the court and have watched him get consistently beat off the dribble by numerous players, he simply isn’t very good at moving laterally and that is a truthful statement. The term is “heavy feet” in basketball coaching circles.

Secondly, I’ve literally watched Winston stand at half court when UD turns the ball over while his teammates hustle back on D on numerous occasions. This was during the state playoffs at Breslin when you would think his focus/effort would be at an all time high.

I personally think Winston was severely overrated as a 5 star when the 2016 rankings were initially released. I think he is a top 60-80 type player and I think when the rankings are updated you’ll see that he’ll trend down in that regard. That being said, he is a skilled offensive player that can be good at UM but I like Goodin much more at the collegiate level.

Strong interest from Thornton would be great, but I’d be a little leery about getting an early commitment from such a highly rated player, with a lot of top schools still pursuing him hard (as you know they will). I’d rather wait on a decision from him and have it be a certain one than have him commit too soon and then have doubts. Until he actually signs a LOI, the commitment means nothing, and it may make other guys look elsewhere for their top option. Then if he ends up waffling later, we’re left without him and with diminished chances for other players we might have otherwise pursued.

If he really wants to be here, and if it’s really the right place for him, he’ll end up here in the end. Whether he commits earlier or later won’t change the chance that we eventually sign him.

Strong interest from Thornton would be great, but I'd be a little leery about getting an early commitment from such a highly rated player, with a lot of top schools still pursuing him hard (as you know they will). I'd rather wait on a decision from him and have it be a certain one than have him commit too soon and then have doubts. Until he actually signs a LOI, the commitment means nothing, and it may make other guys look elsewhere for their top option. Then if he ends up waffling later, we're left without him and with diminished chances for other players we might have otherwise pursued.

If he really wants to be here, and if it’s really the right place for him, he’ll end up here in the end. Whether he commits earlier or later won’t change the chance that we eventually sign him.

Can’t say that I agree - just because it’s the right place for him doesn’t necessarily mean that he will end up here. If Thornton waits and one of Winston/Goodin commits first, then the door is closed on Thornton. We’re not taking 2 PGs in the same class. Long story short, it’s a zero sum game for the PG spot, you either commit to UM or go elsewhere if someone beats you to the punch. If Winston or Goodin commit first you can close the door on Thornton, he won’t end up at UM regardless of the fit.

Well, I’m not saying that committing early wouldn’t be a good move for Thornton, if he just wants a safe place to sit while he considers other options. But from OUR standpoint, an early commitment is not necessarily an advantage, if guys like Winston and Goodin go elsewhere as a result, and we’re left with lesser options if Thornton changes his mind because he made a hasty early decision.

Strong interest from Thornton would be great, but I'd be a little leery about getting an early commitment from such a highly rated player, with a lot of top schools still pursuing him hard (as you know they will).

like who?

Well, I'm not saying that committing early wouldn't be a good move for Thornton, if he just wants a safe place to sit while he considers other options. But from OUR standpoint, an early commitment is not necessarily an advantage, if guys like Winston and Goodin go elsewhere as a result, and we're left with lesser options if Thornton changes his mind because he made a hasty early decision.

But couldn’t the identical scenario play out if Winston/Goodin commit first? Then Thornton would go elsewhere? So under this theory we have no advantage in any scenario.

Reality is I doubt any PG Decommits from UM - that is the equivalent of someone giving you a Mercedes and you replying with a “no thanks”.

Who are we supposed to recruit and accept commitments from then if we have to worry about them all leaving?

Thornton
Coleman
Battle
Leaf
Swannigan
Too much to ask for? Keep the final 4s coming.

I’m not saying that we shouldn’t take a commitment from Thornton if it comes, only that a commitment from a highly sought after player soon after official offers come out, and this far ahead of signing day, carries some degree of uncertainty. There’s a lot of time for top schools to try to lure him away (anyone who thinks interest and pressure from other schools will be largely or completely gone if he commits to us is deluding themselves) and for him to change his mind.

And unfortunately, Michigan is not a recruiting “Mercedes” when it comes to top tier college programs. Kentucky is a Mercedes, Duke is a Mercedes, Kansas is a Mercedes. We have a good reputation, but we just don’t have that kind of pull and prestige. Top 20 recruits are not lining up to sign with us.