My Final Thoughts On The Wilson Commit

Michigan Basketball
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We won't have that luxury because Chatman/Donnal/Irvin don't exist LOL

In what world is Irvin a 4?

Chatman/Donnal may exist, but existence isn’t enough. Whether it’s Chatman or Donnal there will be a severe dropoff from the 4 spot next year (assuming GR3 leaves), especially if McGary leaves.

Bottom line - yea those guys exist, but so what, is there a net gain or net loss if GR3 & Mitch leave and are replaced by the above mentioned players? We don’t have that type of program, at least at this point, to sustain a “bad” year or two. We are a borderline tournament team THIS year, if GR3 & Mitch leave, and are replaced by those guys, our team will be significantly worse.

In essence, because there are players available that can theoretically play a position doesn’t really mean a whole lot, the true question is whether the player(s) in question can sustain or improve the level at which the position was at previously. If not, the position production declines, and ultimately, the team.

Are you really depending on a RS freshman, that hasn’t played a meaningful minute of college basketball (and can’t get on the court despite the fact that Michigan doesn’t really have a backup PF), and a true freshman that is really a point forward, to replace GR3, and not experience a significant dropoff? You have to be kidding me.

I recall a certain someone stating “I loathe the prospects of Donnal/Wilson playing the 4 spot next year” - sound familiar? What a joke

Again, is this your first year following college basketball? Did we expect true freshmen Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin to replace NPOY Trey Burke and All Big Ten 1st team Tim Hardaway Jr.? No. Our guard play was going to take a hit because you don’t replace a Trey Burke. Our strengths this year were our Wings and Front Court.

Next year, we have a huge drop off in our front court, but our back court should be our strength again. You see how this works?

82

Irvin has the tools to be a more of a 4 than Novak.

Chatman and Donnal exist and I have no clue how good they could be compared to GR3.

I am of the opinion that McGary will stay.

Chatman is known for his rebounding, mid range shooting and post up play… yeah sounds like a perimeter oriented forward to me.

I will go on record to say that if Levert, Nik and McGary return next year at full health, it will be our second best team under JB and we will be a top 5 team all year.

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Jon Horford came to Michigan at 210. By Sophomore season he was 250. Tim Hardaway Jr. came to Michigan at 185. By Sophomore season he was 205. Trey Burke came to Michigan at 170. By Sophomore season he was 190. Max Bielfeldt came to Michigan at 220. By Sophomore season he was 245. Glenn Robinsin III came to Michigan at 200. By Sophomore season he was 220. Nik Stauskas came to Michigan at 190. By Sophomore season he was 205. Caris LeVert came to Michigan at 170. By Sophomore season he was 185.

D.J. Wilson is currently listed at 6’8 215 by ESPN. What makes you think by Sophomore season he won’t be up around 6’8 235?

A 6’8 235 pound PF with a nice stroke? Yeah, totally worthless to Michigan and Beilein’s system…

Seriously - and I say this in the most respectful manner possible - do you know anything about basketball?

In what world does development simply mean gaining weight and/or strength?

For example, Horford weighs 250 - what’s your point? Has Horford really improved since being a freshman? His production is nearly identical on a per minute basis from 4 years ago, so what does the weight gain really prove. Apparently, not much.

Same thing with THJ, he gained significant weight/strength his sophomore year, but you really didn’t see his skill set/production improve until his junior year.

Same thing with GR3 - has his skill set improved by a good margin?

Morgan - the transformation of his body from HS to college is nothing short of a miracle, but he may have actually regressed from his freshman year.

So yeah, our strength and conditioning coaches can improve a kid’s physical structure, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into basketball production.

Under this theory, you simply slap on 20 pounds of muscle to a kid, and bam, they’re All Americans. Pardon me, but that is just stupidity, plain and simple.

It’s obvious you and I simply don’t see eye to on Wilson, you have a higher opinion of Wilson than I do, and I respect that, however misguided and ridiculous I think some of your theories are. At this point, we’re not going to change our opinions, so l’d appreciate if you can simply refrain from quoting or responding to me regarding this topic, it’s just redundant at this point. If you want to continue rambling on about this, fine, you win, I’m not responding to any more of your posts concerning this topic.

84
We haven't had a "defender" at the 4 spot in a long time and it's worked.

Novak - 6’3" SF undersized by strong
Smotrycz - 6’9" SF and not strong or athletic
GR3 - 6’6" SF undersized by strong and athletic

I think Wilson will be fine. I actually like his shot blocking/altering potential with those long arms. Put on a few pounds (which is expected) and I think he’ll make a nice player.

Guess it depends on your definition of “it’s worked”. If you mean we’ve experienced progress relative to the previous coaching administration, I concur. Other than that, we’ve been to exactly 1 Sweet 16, that should be an expectation, not an exception. I don’t know if that can be accomplished when we place our team at a rebounding disadvantage by design.

85

Except the stats dont show that we are at a rebounding disadvantage this year.

86

MattD, quit moving the goalposts. Originally you said that it will take Wilson 3-4 years to develop into a good player. The biggest knock on Wilson is his lack of size/strength. I cited numerous Michigan players that increased size and strength in 1 season of college level Strength and Conditioning. Does increased size and strength always translate to durastic improved court play? No, it doesn’t. Does it other times? Ask Caris LeVert.

Jon Horford would not log any minutes if he was still the weight he came in at. He would be way too big of a liability on defense.

GRIII’s biggest issue wasn’t his size or strength. His biggest issue was his ball handling and creating his own shot.

If you want to be objective for once (try it, it’s not so bad), compare players who’s weakness was size/strength and then gained size/strength. Like I said, look at Caris LeVert and Nik Stauskas.

If you don’t think that Wilson will be good even with added strength/size, then you are untitled to that opinion. If you think that it will take Wilson 3 years to gain the needed strength/size, then you are ignorant.

87

Let me get this straight, we are #161 in overall rebounding nationally, #83 in rebounding margin nationally, #7 in the conference - and yet the statistics don’t reflect we are at a rebounding disadvantage this year…alrighty then.

88

Am I the only one out there reading thinking Matt D is not a true MI fan?

It is one thing to give pros and cons but all I ever read in his comments are pure negativity about everything MI related

89
We haven't had a "defender" at the 4 spot in a long time and it's worked.

Novak - 6’3" SF undersized by strong
Smotrycz - 6’9" SF and not strong or athletic
GR3 - 6’6" SF undersized by strong and athletic

I think Wilson will be fine. I actually like his shot blocking/altering potential with those long arms. Put on a few pounds (which is expected) and I think he’ll make a nice player.

Guess it depends on your definition of “it’s worked”. If you mean we’ve experienced progress relative to the previous coaching administration, I concur. Other than that, we’ve been to exactly 1 Sweet 16, that should be an expectation, not an exception. I don’t know if that can be accomplished when we place our team at a rebounding disadvantage by design.

It is all pretty clear to me now. His posts had be thinking it, and this right here has me sold. His tone and outlook are too eerily similar to a certain troll that use to flood the MLive basketball forum to not be him.

90
Irvin has the tools to be a more of a 4 than Novak.

Chatman and Donnal exist and I have no clue how good they could be compared to GR3.

I am of the opinion that McGary will stay.

Chatman is known for his rebounding, mid range shooting and post up play… yeah sounds like a perimeter oriented forward to me.

I will go on record to say that if Levert, Nik and McGary return next year at full health, it will be our second best team under JB and we will be a top 5 team all year.

If McGary stays that could very well happen, he means that much to our team. If McGary leaves, regardless of Nik, Chatman, Donnal, or any other player on the roster, it simply doesn’t matter. McGary’s impact on the court is far greater than any other player we have now, or incoming, regardless of statistics. The rest of our players overlap in terms of skill to certain extent, he is the one unique player we have that provides an inside presence on both ends of the court…he does the dirty work that nobody else on the team is willing to do, he plays with more energy than any other player on our team, and it’s not even close.

91

I love this new narrative of McGary the super human, the next Lebron!

92
Let me get this straight, we are #161 in overall rebounding nationally, #83 in rebounding margin nationally, #7 in the conference - and yet the statistics don't reflect we are at a rebounding disadvantage this year...........alrighty then.

Michigan is ranked 22nd in defensive rebounding, 169th in offensive rebounding.

Rebounding margin continues to be the worst possible and non-relevant stat to reference when discussing rebounding. http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=829

As for Wilson… You admit you haven’t seen him and don’t think anyone should judge him that hasn’t seen him play whole game(s) yet you discredit all of the people who just saw him play this weekend and thought he looked terrific. The same people that see more kids play than any of us.

93
With the attrition we're facing after this year, can anyone honestly say Wilson will be able to step in and man the 4 spot on either end of the court? With the way college basketball has developed into a 1-2 year rental, we simply can't afford to have players that take 2-3 years to develop into rotation players that make a positive impact on the court. If Mitch and gr3 leave, I think most people will have a greater appreciation for my opinion on this matter next year.

Anybody think that MattD was on some forum somewhere last year saying:

“With the attrition we’re facing after this year, can anyone honestly say Walton will be able to step in and man the 1 spot on either end of the court? With the way college basketball has developed into a 1-2 year rental, we simply can’t afford to have players that take 2-3 years to develop into rotation players that make a positive impact on the court. If Burke and Hardaway Jr. leave, I think most people will have a greater appreciation for my opinion on this matter next year.” ??

Newsflash, MattD: Not every team is Kentucky and reloads with 1or 2 and done players year in and year out. How many 1 or 2 year rentals has John Beilein ever had? Darius Morris and Trey Burke?

94
Let me get this straight, we are #161 in overall rebounding nationally, #83 in rebounding margin nationally, #7 in the conference - and yet the statistics don't reflect we are at a rebounding disadvantage this year...........alrighty then.

Michigan is ranked 22nd in defensive rebounding, 169th in offensive rebounding.

Rebounding margin continues to be the worst possible and non-relevant stat to reference when discussing rebounding. http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=829

As for Wilson… You admit you haven’t seen him and don’t think anyone should judge him that hasn’t seen him play whole game(s) yet you discredit all of the people who just saw him play this weekend and thought he looked terrific. The same people that see more kids play than any of us.

For the past couple years, any person who references rebounding margin has immediately lost credit in my eyes. It is an extremely flawed stat that misleads those who are easily mislead.

95
Let me get this straight, we are #161 in overall rebounding nationally, #83 in rebounding margin nationally, #7 in the conference - and yet the statistics don't reflect we are at a rebounding disadvantage this year...........alrighty then.

Michigan is ranked 22nd in defensive rebounding, 169th in offensive rebounding.

Rebounding margin continues to be the worst possible and non-relevant stat to reference when discussing rebounding. http://basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=829

As for Wilson… You admit you haven’t seen him and don’t think anyone should judge him that hasn’t seen him play whole game(s) yet you discredit all of the people who just saw him play this weekend and thought he looked terrific. The same people that see more kids play than any of us.

Rebounding margin continues to be the worst possible and non-relevant stat to reference - according to who, you and Gasaway? If you don’t think coaches are concerned about rebounding margin, then I guess more power to you. Rebounding margin is definitely relevant - it indicates if you’re getting worked over on the glass taking into account both the offensive and defensive glass.

Even when utilizing % based metrics, M is still #66 in total rebounding, so yes, I believe we’re working at a disadvantage.

Regarding Wilson - get it straight - I have seen the same clips that all of us have seen, and I never said other posters shouldn’t judge him based on the fact that they haven’t seen entire games, I simply said that it is ridiculous to criticize me for my opinion based on the premise that I haven’t seen entire games, when the same is true for those posters making that assertion. In other words, stop being hypocritical - don’t say it’s dumb to say a kid is limited based on 4 minute clips when you’re saying he’s great based on 4 minute clips - how can you not see the flaw in that logic? I didn’t discredit any analyst, I simply said their rankings aren’t consistent with a few random tweets, and that is true. For that matter, you, perhaps more than any other poster, should know Rivals is not a very respected service for basketball recruiting, and that is reality.

If you think Wilson is all world, fine, more power to you. You’re entitled to your opinion, whatever that may be, and I am entitled to my opinion. And in my opinion, I don’t like the fit between Wilson and Michigan at this point. If you, or anybody else doesn’t like it, so be it, I don’t really care. All I ask is for logic, objectivity, while refraining from being hypocritical. At the end of the day, there are a healthy amount of posters that think Wilson is great, and hey, I respect that, but there are also a healthy amount of posters that think Wilson has limitations, let’s respect that as well.

96

Administration - perhaps you’re talking about these same analysts that just seen Wilson play last night - I wonder if they know more than we do? We’re talking about a 6’8 kid with 1, I repeat, 1 rebound through 3 quarters of a tournament championship, and I’m the one that’s coming out of left field? Give me a break

97

So the analysts know what they are talking about when it is about a bad game that Wilson has? (Heavy on the sarcasm there)

The bottom line is over the last several years Coach Belien and his staff have proven a eye for talent. Hardaway, Burke, Levert

98

So the analysts know what they are talking about when it is about a bad game that Wilson has as evidence by the tweets (Heavy on the sarcasm there)!

The bottom line is over the last several years Coach Belien and his staff have proven a eye for talent that will surprise and develop. Did anyone think Levert would even play last year, let alone develop into a starter by his sophomore campaign. He is even being talked about as a future nba prospect in some circles. Burke was a unheardled recruit coming in. Hardaway wasn’t looked at as a hot prospect when he signed.

Belien wants kids who will work and realize the potential he sees in them. Sadly that is not always the 5 star primadomma. I say sadly for the players because some of these kids have been told how great they are for so long that the work ethic isn’t always there. Belien has shown if his players put in work he develops them and those are the type kids he looks to recruit.

So Wilson fits the mold of what he was looking for. Now am I saying he will be a stud…no. I’m not saying he won’t either, would anyone have projected Burke as a POY even after a great freshman year let alone coming into college? Would anyone project Levert as a starting player when he was being recruited?

Everyone can’t be a 5 star stud recruit and we shouldn’t want a team of nothing but them. You need players who fill roles as well!

99

^^^^^^
Seriously, what are you talking about? I have consistently said I don’t care where Wilson is ranked or what analysts say - I simply offered the tweets above from recruiting analysts in response to administrations statement that I “discredit all of the people who just saw him play this weekend and thought he looked terrific. The same people that see more kids play than any of us.”

Evidently, there are analysts that watch full games of Wilson that aren’t all that impressed with what they see. In fact, so much so, that the rankings reflect their view that Wilson isn’t God. To skip through the sarcasm my point is simple - some analysts may like Wilson as a player, while others aren’t so impressed, who really knows the correct opinion? My point is, let’s have independent eyes when assessing a recruit’s game rather than relying on random tweets/rankings.

That being said, I see you’re a “JB has a good track record of getting underrated guys so I’m going to blindly support any recruit because if he’s good enough for JB he must be good” type of person, and that’s fine. If you’re going to be explicit in that belief and consistent with it, that is very respectable, but let’s not act is if Wilson doesn’t have limitations and is immune from critique of his game. And for the life of me, please don’t ever utilize the term “work ethic” in conjunction with Michigan recruits. If we’re being realistic, there aren’t very many players on the roster that are willing to outwork the opposition/play with max effort and hustle during the games to warrant that type of statement. In fact, on the national level, most outsiders view our team as the exact opposite, a soft team that isn’t willing to do the dirty work in order to consistently win. You are correct, we need guys to fill roles, however the type of roles we need filled on this team are guys willing to put forth max effort on defense/rebounding/hustle type of plays. You can’t have a roster full of 3 point shooters without a post presence on offense or defense, it’s simply not balanced enough.

100
Administration - perhaps you're talking about these same analysts that just seen Wilson play last night - I wonder if they know more than we do? We're talking about a 6'8 kid with 1, I repeat, 1 rebound through 3 quarters of a tournament championship, and I'm the one that's coming out of left field? Give me a break

https://twitter.com/JoelFranESPN/status/417897640466984961

https://twitter.com/JoelFranESPN/status/417886605672595456

https://twitter.com/FrankieBur/status/417885589631815680

https://twitter.com/MitchMashMax/status/417889870376206336

You just kind of blew right by the Paul George comparison. Others have already noted Wilson’s lack of aggressiveness after watching the film clips. And he needs to add strength and weight - been said many times. I see a player with a very high ceiling if he makes those strides in strength and aggressiveness. You don’t or you think it will take 3 or 4 years. You’ve also said that he’s not a good “fit” for what we need because we don’t need another three point shooter. Stauskas and LeVert will be juniors when Wilson is a frosh. Stauskas may be gone after next season. That leaves Irvin and LeVert as shooters. We will definitely need shooters by the Wilson’s second year in Ann Arbor. And you don’t think that Beilein could make great use of 6’8"-9" shooter with a sweet stroke?