My Final Thoughts On The Wilson Commit

Michigan Basketball
21
this is getting old - I've never seen one person debate so hard AGAINST a commit. Have an opinion, but sheesh. give it a rest.

This is EXACTLY the problem…just because Wilson is a commit, does that entitle him to immunization from critique of his game?

If Wilson had spurned UM, I can just about guarantee that you, and 90% of the board would’ve said “oh he was just a spotup shooter anyway, we needed more athleticism and toughness”.

I’m not debating “against” Wilson, I’m simply offering my opinion/analysis as it relates to Wilson’s current limitations from an athletic and skills standpoint. If you disagree, fine, but let’s keep it objective.

Overreact much? Did I say you can’t critique his game???
THIS is exactly the problem. Give it a break dude.

I’m just saying - have your opinion, that’s great. It’s expected that a kid not rated in the Top 100 would have come criticism. I’m sure Grantham would have as well and he’s in the Top 100. There are concerns with Wilson, sure.

But let it go at some point…hopefully soon…

22
I think what is perhaps problematic is that some individuals equate jumping ability to athleticism as a whole, which is erroneous. Atheleticism incorporates not only jumping ability, but also speed, lateral movement, and strength.

As it relates to Wilson, I can see where one might argue that he can jump. I don’t necessarily think Wilson is a below average jumper, but I wouldn’t neccesarily classify him as a prospect with good/great leaping ability, such as Corey Sanders. However, as it relates to lateral movement, I think he is below average, and with regards to strength let’s just say he has a lot of room for improvement. Speed - once again I think Wilson is below average to average.

Taking all those factors into account, how could anyone objectively classify Wilson as “athletic”, let alone an elite athlete? I guess it depends upon your definition, but in my opinion if you only exceed average in one of those four attributes, while being clearly below average in 2 others, that would seeminly take “athletic” out of the realm of possibilities as a descriptive word. Wilson himself admits that he needs to work on getting faster and stronger.

Also, I think your definition of elite athlete is considerably lower than my own, as Bolden is not “ultra athletic” in my opinion. Andrew Wiggins is an ultra athlete, Lebron James is an ultra athete, Steve Francis was an ultra athlete…Bolden simply isn’t even approaching that caliber.

Concerning your argument that we may still take Bolden in addition to Wilson, it doesn’t appear to be the case. As mentioned earlier, Sam Webb is of the opinion that we close the class with either Blackmon or Booker, and NO MORE - in other words no 5th scholarship will be allocated to any player, INCLUDING BOLDEN.

I haven’t seen any film where you can assess his lateral movement or speed. When you do assess those things, you have to compare him to other 6’9" 17 year olds. You have to look at where he is in his physical development. Some kids are fully mature or close to it as 17 year olds. Some are still growing and maturing. I don’t see the relevance of comparing Wilson’s athleticism to Corey Sanders. That would be like comparing Looney’s shooting ability to Nik Stauskas.

Why haven’t I seen any film where I can assess lateral movement or speed? I’ve seen three films of Wilson now, and that is my take on it - that he is below average in terms of lateral movement and below average to average in terms of speed.

Your relevant comparison pool is simply wrong - you don’t compare him to other 6’9 17 years old kids, as he is not your typical 6’9 17 year old kid. Your relevant comparison pool is other elite high school basketball players that have to play the stretch 4 and perimeter(in other words you will play on the perimeter to a certain extent). A comparison to a 6’9 high school player committed to MSU isn’t relevant because a player going to MSU to play the 4 is mostly going to be stationary in the post.

How do you know when a kid has fully matured in terms of physical development? You can look at that any way you choose depending if you want to be optimistic or pessimistic, because quite frankly you have no idea, and so to me that has no relevance. The only thing we can say with reasonable probability is that players will generally gain weight/strength in college, but not anything else.

How isn’t there relevance to Corey Sanders? Sanders is simply a great high school athlete, while Wilson is not. With regards to your analogy regarding Looney to Stauskus, I agree, which in essence makes my point. There is simply no comparison between Wilson and a guy like Sanders.

There isn’t relevance to Corey Sanders because Sanders is a 6’1" guard, not a 6’9" 4. Apples and oranges, just like comparing a money shooting guard like Nik to a 6’8" 4 like Looney. As for DJ’s growth, he’s grown 5" in the last year, which is the main reason for his back problem last season. Whether or not he grows taller, which he might given his 7’2" wing span, he will mature and add muscle just like every other player in our program has. I’m not comparing DJ to other 6’9" 17 year olds off the street. If you compare him to other rated 4s, he’s probably better suited to the stretch 4 than most because he can shoot and handle the ball. He was injured his junior season and fell behind. He improved a ton over the last 6 months and will continue to do so. If you can’t see the potential in this kid, I can’t help you.

You obviously live in the yesteryear of basketball, where 6’9 guys weren’t held to the same athletic standards as guards because they were primarily limited to the post and hence no need for mobility/agility.

Newsflash - smallball is taking over, and bigs are now expected to move just as well laterally relative to guards.

Thus, a comparison to Corey Sanders is TOTALLY relevant. Pick and roll is now dominating basketball as a whole, it places the defense in a position where it essentially can’t win if the big who hedges can’t move well laterally, IE Smot or a Gasol type player. Can you imagine what would happen to a guy like Wilson if he was placed hedging/showing on the screen and was forced to defend Corey Sanders/James Blackmon/Derrick Walton at this point in his development - let me tell you, it wouldn’t be pretty.

That makes no sense. First, the 5 is ordinarily involved in defending a pick and roll, not a 4. Second, if a 5 or even a 4 gets switched on a quick PG, there are no 4s and 5s who are as quick as a Walton or who could defend him without help. Finally, “at this point in his development” is the whole point that everyone is trying to make to you. You act like what he is now is what he will always be. You don’t think that he’ll improve much. Others, including me, see a guy, to quote his Coach, who is “just scratching the surface.” That’s where we differ. And where I bow out of this discussion.

This is so far off it’s almost funny. Arbitrary labels such as 4 or 5 are meaningless in this context. What really matters is the offense is going to look for a mismatch, and that often means isolating a big on your PG. Different level of basketball, but when the Pistons roll out the Drummond/Monroe combo, Monroe is technically the 4, but that doesn’t stop teams from picking on him because the truth is he simply lacks the lateral movement to adequately defend a guard, while Drummond is pretty good at help and recover defense. Same thing with the Lakers last year, when the Gasol/Howard tandem were on the court teams picked on Gasol literally the entire time he was out there and he was the 4 rather than the 5.

True enough, there may not be any 4s and 5s quick enough to check Walton on an island, but there are players that can help and recover, or even slow down Walton in an isolation situation.

Finally, as I’ve mentioned before, in terms of lateral movement/agility, I do think for the most part “what you see is what you get” - there is only so much improvement you can make in terms of athleticism, whereas skill improvement is unlimited as I have shown already. Bottom line is that everyone has a ceiling athletically, no individual is going to come in with a 28 inch vert and leave college with a 38 inch vert or go from a 4.9 40 time to a 4.3 40 time, just not humanly possible. However, you can go from a 20% 3 point shooter to a 40% three point shooter. THIS is why athleticism is so important and coaches value it to the extent that they do, because in large part, what you see is indeed what you get in terms of athleticism.

23
this is getting old - I've never seen one person debate so hard AGAINST a commit. Have an opinion, but sheesh. give it a rest.

This is EXACTLY the problem…just because Wilson is a commit, does that entitle him to immunization from critique of his game?

If Wilson had spurned UM, I can just about guarantee that you, and 90% of the board would’ve said “oh he was just a spotup shooter anyway, we needed more athleticism and toughness”.

I’m not debating “against” Wilson, I’m simply offering my opinion/analysis as it relates to Wilson’s current limitations from an athletic and skills standpoint. If you disagree, fine, but let’s keep it objective.

Overreact much? Did I say you can’t critique his game???
THIS is exactly the problem. Give it a break dude.

I’m just saying - have your opinion, that’s great. It’s expected that a kid not rated in the Top 100 would have come criticism. I’m sure Grantham would have as well and he’s in the Top 100. There are concerns with Wilson, sure.

But let it go at some point…hopefully soon…

My point is…why don’t you tell the other 30 pro- Wilson posters to give it a break. Their posts on this matter far outnumber my own, and in fact they start threads directly aimed at me, but I need to give it a break? . But because those views align with your own, I guess that makes it ok. Get real buddy. Hypocrisy…

24

You do realize Marc Gasol is excellent PnR defender and won DPOY?

25

MattD against all y’all. Bring it.

26
You do realize Marc Gasol is excellent PnR defender and won DPOY?

Marc is adequate, I certainly wouldn’t categorize him as “excellent” though. DPOY award is meaningless in my opinion, at this point its simply a political award for the player thought to have the best defensive impact on the best defensive team. Can anyone really claim Marc was a better defender last year relative to Chandler, Ibaka, Howard…Hell, Tony Allen is a much better defender than Marc, and that’s his teammate.

27

Not really, Gasol’s advanced stats were cream of the crop. Only Duncan and Ibaka had any kind of argument. Perimeter defenders, no matter how good they are, can ever have the defensive impact of a good defensive big man.

28
this is getting old - I've never seen one person debate so hard AGAINST a commit. Have an opinion, but sheesh. give it a rest.

This is EXACTLY the problem…just because Wilson is a commit, does that entitle him to immunization from critique of his game?

If Wilson had spurned UM, I can just about guarantee that you, and 90% of the board would’ve said “oh he was just a spotup shooter anyway, we needed more athleticism and toughness”.

I’m not debating “against” Wilson, I’m simply offering my opinion/analysis as it relates to Wilson’s current limitations from an athletic and skills standpoint. If you disagree, fine, but let’s keep it objective.

Overreact much? Did I say you can’t critique his game???
THIS is exactly the problem. Give it a break dude.

I’m just saying - have your opinion, that’s great. It’s expected that a kid not rated in the Top 100 would have come criticism. I’m sure Grantham would have as well and he’s in the Top 100. There are concerns with Wilson, sure.

But let it go at some point…hopefully soon…

My point is…why don’t you tell the other 30 pro- Wilson posters to give it a break. Their posts on this matter far outnumber my own, and in fact they start threads directly aimed at me, but I need to give it a break? . But because those views align with your own, I guess that makes it ok. Get real buddy. Hypocrisy…

mmmmkkk then carry on…

29

I can’t help you Matt. I don’t know what your background in hoops is but I’m assuming it’s not much. And I don’t mean that as an insult. Your just over thinking everything.

You know what I saw watching the OPEN GYM video you posted? A kid who lacks aggressiveness and creativeness (although usually when a kid does the same move over and over like that in drills he was told to by coaches). He has all the tools at 6’9 to fit what we want.

I was gonna respond in full but it’s just not worth it.

You lost me when you questioned why we are running this type of system.

You misinterpret most of what is posted.

30
I can't help you Matt. I don't know what your background in hoops is but I'm assuming it's not much. And I don't mean that as an insult. Your just over thinking everything.

You know what I saw watching the OPEN GYM video you posted? A kid who lacks aggressiveness and creativeness (although usually when a kid does the same move over and over like that in drills he was told to by coaches). He has all the tools at 6’9 to fit what we want.

I was gonna respond in full but it’s just not worth it.

You lost me when you questioned why we are running this type of system.

You misinterpret most of what is posted.

Just for clarification, I played Division II basketball in the late 90s before transferring to complete my degree at UM. No insult taken, your opinion just happens to be different than my own, however off basis it might be.

If I’m overthinking everything, well I guess that means the scouts and most high-major coaches are overthinking things as well.

Quite frankly, you can make all the excuses you want, and talk about all the potential and tools you want, the truth of the matter is that as of right now, the kid has limitations both athletically and from a skillset standpoint, whether you want to admit it or not.

I don’t misinterpret anything, I simply disagree. At this point though, you are correct, it’s simply not worth it, either you lack the knowledge or objectivity to give an honest analysis. Let’s be real here, after watching the film there have been a few people here that were adamantly against the idea that Wilson might be limited initially, but have at least semi-conceded that there may be some issues with Wilson. Hell, even Dylan has stated that Wilson needs some work on the defensive end. But if you want to live in a fantasy world, more power to you.

31
If I'm overthinking everything, well I guess that means the scouts and most high-major coaches are overthinking things as well.

Are you really comparing your effort level on player evaluation to people who make a living from the sport? If so…you may need to find more hobbies.

32
If I'm overthinking everything, well I guess that means the scouts and most high-major coaches are overthinking things as well.

Are you really comparing your effort level on player evaluation to people who make a living from the sport? If so…you may need to find more hobbies.

Did I ever compare my effort level to anyone, let alone analysts/scouts that are compensated to do so? Alrighty then…

The reason I made the statement concerning scout and high major coaches would have obvious to most…the scouts/analysts/coaches that are compensated to evaluate high school players seem to agree with my assessment of Wilson, despite the fact that “my hoops background isn’t much”…

33
ge
Oh my gosh again, Matt D?

Where specifically does your evidence show he is below average in lateral speed and quickness?

Be specific, there are only three videos and I have time to watch all three.

All you have to do is post the link to the video and give me the time mark to watch…GO.

Where specifically does the evidence show he is NOT below average in terms of lateral speed and quickness? The hypocrisy is absolutely baffling…

You say “oh my gosh” as if I’m the one that started this thread regarding Wilson’s athleticism. The thread was obviously started, at least in part, as a response to me in particular - am I not allowed to respond? Am I supposed to put my tail between my legs and walk away? I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, I’m nobody’s “yes man”, I’m going to offer my independent opinion/analysis in an objective and logical manner, regardless of who the coaching staff has interest in, or who others on this board may like/dislike. If we didn’t do that, then really, what the hell is the point of having the board. If you want to be part of the cheerleading team for the coaching staff, go right ahead, but that’s not me, I have an opinion and eyes of my own, I don’t need other people to formulate my opinions.

In any event, here you go: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ThuuPIsarg

7:35 mark - after getting a half step of separation on the defender, Wilson does not have the lateral quickness/speed to get a clean layup/dunk and the defender actually beats him to the spot despite the fact that Wilson is at least 6 inches taller with much longer strides in comparison to the defender. To make the matter even worse, Wilson proceeds to go into a ball fake fade away hook rather than using his body to his advantage and going up strong. - Lack of speed, strength, balance and aggressiveness

8:05mark - clearly has the defender beat by a full step, instead of going up strong, Wilson does the same garbage ball fake because he is knocked off balance by a simple hand check from a defender much smaller than he is. Lack of balance, strength and aggressiveness

8:52 mark - defender once again beats Wilson to the spot and instead of going up strong, its the same garbage - ball fake and hook. Lack of speed, lateral movement, aggressiveness

9:20 mark - defender beats Wilson to the same, and you guessed it - ball fake and hook. Lack of speed, lateral movement, aggressiveness.

9:55 mark - despite an array of moves/dribbles(ballhandling was actually impressive),Wilson cannot create any space and settles for a 19 foot jumpshot, but hits it. Lack of lateral movement, speed, aggressiveness

10:05 mark - probably the most disturbing of all, he can’t get a step on what is clearly the most athletically challenged person in this video, and perhaps even more disturbing is that he still doesn’t go up strong. LACK OF EVERYTHING, geez this was bad

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O9TW7MMopqc
34

So Michigan commit DJ Wilson is a big time athlete! Two monster dunks early

— Scott Burgess (@scott_chihoops) November 29, 2013

Capital Christian (CA) leads Champaign Central al half 37-22. Michigan commit DJ Wilson w 12 pts 5 reb 3 blk

— Scott Burgess (@scott_chihoops) November 29, 2013
35

So Michigan commit DJ Wilson is a big time athlete! Two monster dunks early

— Scott Burgess (@scott_chihoops) November 29, 2013

Capital Christian (CA) leads Champaign Central al half 37-22. Michigan commit DJ Wilson w 12 pts 5 reb 3 blk

— Scott Burgess (@scott_chihoops) November 29, 2013

Must be another DJ Wilson, Sven, not the below average athlete who Beilein signed.

36
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I’ve got a sneaky suspicion that we’ve got anther Caris Levert situation on our hands. Wilson might take a few years in the program which is definitely a negative but he might turn into a heckuva player down the road after a few years with a college S&C program.

38

To all the people that post a freaking book, get to the point! I can only speak for myself here, but I come to this place for short and concise thoughts. Anytime I see a post with more than 5 lines I will either skip it or get mad and exit the entire site!

39

Won’t say I agree entirely ( I read posts longer than 5 lines), but I don’t view this forum as a place to write essays.

40

In before MattD starts backpedaling to save face as resident trolls always do when they were clearly wrong on something (ie: Wilson being a poor athlete).