Moritz Wagner Likely to Play in College, Reportedly Considering (Favoring?) Michigan


#41
Just agree to disagree..............you think Wagner is a decent dribbler relative to his size. But as we have all seen under JB, basketball is becoming a position-less game.........doesn't matter how big you are anymore, you can either dribble or you can't. As you say, he's not a 5, he's a wing in our offense.........and his handle is nowhere near good enough to handle B10 level defenders. With his current game, I don't think Wagner can create a quality shot for himself or his teammates. If we KNEW we were getting a Winston or Langford, then I'd be ok with it as a supplemental player..........but with the way recruiting has gone recently, I think we have to prepare for the fact that we aren't getting either of those guys.

I’m looking at this from a deduction standpoint…if we get Wagner, that is one less spot for an upper tier creator…we need those MUCH more than we need a guy that can make a shot off a close out.

Well if, as you say, we aren’t getting Winston and Langford, then who exactly is the upper tier creator that Wagner is taking a spot from?

See my paragraph just above the line you reference - I would be fine is Wagner was a supplemental piece…but we NEED a multifaceted player that can handle and create for others exponentially more than we need a one dimensional player. What is the need for Duncan Robinson and Wagner in one class…far too much overlap.

Long story short, get an upper tier creator FIRST, then worry about Wagner. If you can’t land him because you put him on the backburner, then so be it, he’s not going to improve the team next year anyway. Guys like that are not uncommon…and they’re always attracted to UM, there will be other opportunities for oversized wings that can’t handle.

Well I agree that we have a much greater need for an upper tier creator or two, but I am not sure that bringing in a Wagner excludes them.

From a scholarship standpoint, if you add Wagner, you are down to 1 scholarship available for the 16 class. It essentially negates your flexibility to add a creating PG and a creating Wing…if you add Wagner, and fail to add a PG, the roster will be extremely redundant and limited. As you say, we need to add creators…would much rather have a PG and wing that both have the ability to handle then another catch and shoot type player.

I agree you may want to hold off recruiting another guy. Of course if Wagner commits I can see a guy transferring out. How would guys like Wagner, Donnal, Doyle and Wilson all be part of a regular rotation? Maybe Beilein already knows if a guy is going to transfer. I agree I would rather have a wing.


#42

Wagner visiting http://www.umhoops.com/2015/03/06/report-german-forward-moritz-wagner-visit-michigan-weekend/


#43

Lets face it, he’s committing. Please God give me a creator in 16


#44
Lets face it, he's committing. Please God give me a creator in 16

I’m hearing slightly more scuttlebutt that LeVert is strongly considering staying. If so, that at least gives us one more year. For sure will need a creator for 2016. If I had my druthers right now, I’d take Wagner and Murray for 2015 somehow (aware there are scholly concerns if LeVert does come back).


#45
Lets face it, he's committing. Please God give me a creator in 16

haha! well. Hope this one works out. We haven’t hit the Pittsnogle home run on our last handful of 6’10 forwards so here’s to hoping.

I think we’ll bring in another guard in 2015. JMO
The perfect scenario would be Murray reclassifies to '15 and commits.


#46
Lets face it, he's committing. Please God give me a creator in 16

I’m hearing slightly more scuttlebutt that LeVert is strongly considering staying. If so, that at least gives us one more year. For sure will need a creator for 2016. If I had my druthers right now, I’d take Wagner and Murray for 2015 somehow (aware there are scholly concerns if LeVert does come back).

Still doesnt do anything to mitigate the need for an upper tier creator in 16 unless we get Murray in 15. Towns is pretty much off the table at this point. I really am questioning we we continue to obtain so many one dimensional players…too much overlap. We absolutely must have an upper tier creator with our 1 available scholarship. If not, I don’t see how this team will get back to an elite level any time within the next 2-4 years


#47
Lets face it, he's committing. Please God give me a creator in 16

I’m hearing slightly more scuttlebutt that LeVert is strongly considering staying. If so, that at least gives us one more year. For sure will need a creator for 2016. If I had my druthers right now, I’d take Wagner and Murray for 2015 somehow (aware there are scholly concerns if LeVert does come back).

Still doesnt do anything to mitigate the need for an upper tier creator in 16 unless we get Murray in 15. Towns is pretty much off the table at this point. I really am questioning we we continue to obtain so many one dimensional players…too much overlap. We absolutely must have an upper tier creator with our 1 available scholarship. If not, I don’t see how this team will get back to an elite level any time within the next 2-4 years

I think we project to have a nice team and loaded with great support players.
But yes, to be elite we need (and really any team does) a difference maker.

Dawkins, Chatman, and MAAR will be interesting to watch progression through the offseason and into next season. I have to believe there will be some “sophomore jump” in their game. And then adding 6’10 forwards in Wilson and Wagner and 6’8 Robinson has to give us some boost, if not anything else better depth than this year.

We’re just waiting for that special plug to join up.


#48

Meh…even the sophomore jump from those guys doesn’t make them true creators because the baseline was so law. MAAR is the one most likely to take the jump in my view, but Im not expecting him to put up 15,5,5 type numbers, which is what we need without Caris.

If We don’t pick up an upper tier creator in 16, this roster is going to be very stagnant on offense in the future, we are literally facing a future with MAAR and Walton as our only ball handlers in 16. And in 17 it would be thinner once Walton leaves.That’s a scary proposition because we are essentially forcing true freshman to be our primary creators in the future

I know people said I jumped the gun with the freak out over the Robinson/Coleman fiasco but I envisioned this exact scenario…I hope this ends up OK, but I don’t have a good feeling.


#49

I’ll pose a rhetorical question…what happens in the event that Caris leaves (very likely even though he’s not ready), and one of Walton/Spike/MAAR get injured…which isn’t far fetched at all


#50
I'll pose a rhetorical question..........what happens in the event that Caris leaves (very likely even though he's not ready), and one of Walton/Spike/MAAR get injured........which isn't far fetched at all

That’s when you need to change the channel to Dancing with the Stars


#51
If We don't pick up an upper tier creator in 16, this roster is going to be very stagnant on offense in the future, we are literally facing a future with MAAR and Walton as our only ball handlers in 16. And in 17 it would be thinner once Walton leaves.That's a scary proposition because we are essentially forcing true freshman to be our primary creators in the future.

That’s basically two extra classes down the road. If anything I would say U-M is moving more toward trying to use every scholarship instead of planning for the future given all of the attrition in the last few years. I’m sure there will be scholarships available for 2016 and 2017.

I'll pose a rhetorical question..........what happens in the event that Caris leaves (very likely even though he's not ready), and one of Walton/Spike/MAAR get injured........which isn't far fetched at all

If Caris Leaves I would think they’d look very closely at adding a guard this year.


#52
If We don't pick up an upper tier creator in 16, this roster is going to be very stagnant on offense in the future, we are literally facing a future with MAAR and Walton as our only ball handlers in 16. And in 17 it would be thinner once Walton leaves.That's a scary proposition because we are essentially forcing true freshman to be our primary creators in the future.

That’s basically two extra classes down the road. If anything I would say U-M is moving more toward trying to use every scholarship instead of planning for the future given all of the attrition in the last few years. I’m sure there will be scholarships available for 2016 and 2017.

I'll pose a rhetorical question..........what happens in the event that Caris leaves (very likely even though he's not ready), and one of Walton/Spike/MAAR get injured........which isn't far fetched at all

If Caris Leaves I would think they’d look very closely at adding a guard this year.

Dylan - c’mon man I know it’s your job to a certain extent to put a positive spin on things, but we know damn well that our roster is extremely unbalanced (you even admitted adding Wagner presents an issue in that regard), and lacks ball handling, desperately needs speed, and just athleticism in general. I just don’t see it improving with the current trajectory unless we get an upper tier creator. If Caris leaves, we’re 99% sure to get a late pickup project kid that won’t be ready for 2-3 years. At some point, JB simply has to up his game in recruiting regardless of what anybody says


#53
Meh.........even the sophomore jump from those guys doesn't make them true creators because the baseline was so law. MAAR is the one most likely to take the jump in my view, but Im not expecting him to put up 15,5,5 type numbers, which is what we need without Caris.

If We don’t pick up an upper tier creator in 16, this roster is going to be very stagnant on offense in the future, we are literally facing a future with MAAR and Walton as our only ball handlers in 16. And in 17 it would be thinner once Walton leaves.That’s a scary proposition because we are essentially forcing true freshman to be our primary creators in the future

I know people said I jumped the gun with the freak out over the Robinson/Coleman fiasco but I envisioned this exact scenario…I hope this ends up OK, but I don’t have a good feeling.

I get the concern, but I have no idea of how Coleman instead of Robinson solves it. Coleman is an athletic shooter, but he certainly isn’t a guy who creates for others, or at least any more so than guys already on the roster, and he largely creates jump shots for himself. I also don’t see how Towns, whom you’ve been very bullish on (and I agree), solves the problem.

I think there are a number of guys who have the ability to create shots for themselves going forward. At the level of Nik or Caris, maybe not, but certainly at the level of Tim–Zak is at that level now (he doesn’t finish at the basket nearly as well, but he has a better mid-range game), as is MAAR (I think he’s better than that as a creator), and Kam, if his overall game comes around, can be added to this list.

I agree that we need a great creator/ballhandler in '16 to be at the level we’d like to be. I don’t think that getting Coleman or Towns would alter that calculus in any way, shape or form.


#54

MattD: I just think you are mixing arguments. Impossible to say who Michigan would add if Caris leaves right now. Transfers, etc. can always come around. You never really know what you’ll get. MAAR’s experience this year really helps in that regard, but I still think you need to add a guy.

I’m not saying they don’t need some wing playmakers in 2016. That’s not debatable, I was just pointing out that there will be room to take them. The thing about having a log jam at a position is that it often has a way of working itself out.


#55
I'll pose a rhetorical question..........what happens in the event that Caris leaves (very likely even though he's not ready), and one of Walton/Spike/MAAR get injured........which isn't far fetched at all

What if one of our young bigs transfers out before '16? I won’t speculate as to who that would be out of fairness to the kids, but if we end up with Doyle, Donnel, Wilson, Teske, and Wagner, all within 2-3 years of each other, doesn’t it stand to reason that someone will see the writing on the wall? I get that 1-2 of those guys may be able to provide a few minutes at the 4, but I think Chatman and Robinson are the future at that position.

I guess my point is that I agree that UM is stockpiling too many similar players but they have more information than we do – maybe they expect attrition in the post and expect to focus on landing a creator in the near future. Obviously they’d have to pursue and land that guy, but do you think that’s a possibility?


#56

One other thing… We’ve had a 6-6 PF for the last three years now. I think having a guy that is 6-9 there would certainly be welcome.


#57

I’m less concerned about the “need a creator” situation for 2016. Look at 2013. The only creator on the floor was Burke (granted, he was National Player of the Year). You can’t credibly argue Nik was a creator during our NCAA run, as he was awful in most of those games (Syracuse and Louisville in particular).

Irvin is now capable of creating mid-range shots for himself, and using the pick-and-roll to find a big man rolling to the basket. Walton, prior to his injury, can get into the lane and either score for himself, or pass to others. MAAR can get a shot for himself off the dribble pretty consistently, though I’d agree he’s not great at using the dribble to find others. And I think in two years, Chapman will be a capable dribbler and passer (he’s already shown glimpses of being a good passer).

Last year was really the first time we’ve had multiple wings, in addition to the point guard, who could handle the ball effectively. Heck, look back to the VCU game, where we let Tim bring the ball up the court against the press and I’m sure every Michigan fan was collectively holding his breath early in that game to see if he could do it capably (turns out, not too bad). Sure, it would be nice to have a team full of guys who are creators, but I don’t see it as essential.

Let’s put it this way - the 2012 team won a share of the Big Ten title (with two really good teams, MSU and OSU, both of whom we beat at home that year), and among Morris, Hardaway, Douglas, Novak, and Smote (the PG and top wing players), I’d give the edge to the 2016 squad in terms of guys who could create offense off the dribble. As a freshman, MAAR is already WAY more capable of scoring off the dribble than Douglas ever was.


#58

I disagree MHoops - Coleman’s handle was much better in HS in relation to THJ and Zak in HS, and despite what you say he was a decent passer off PnR. By the time 16-17 came around, he would’ve most likely been at a level to be a reliable ball handler in a half court set that can create a quality look. That would really mitigate the type of pressure we’re facing to add a 2 way guard.

Nothing we can do now but hope like hell we add one of Murray, Winston, Langford


#59
One other thing.. We've had a 6-6 PF for the last three years now. I think having a guy that is 6-9 there would certainly be welcome.

Less about size and more about toughness…we simply don’t have guys that are accustomed to boxing out because they have been perimeter players their entire lives until they get to college. Novak was a better rebounder than GR3 despite being 3 inches shorter mad much less athletic. Rebounding is about doing the dirty work before leaving your feet, and if we’re being realistic we just don’t recruit those type of players for the most part.


#60
I'll pose a rhetorical question..........what happens in the event that Caris leaves (very likely even though he's not ready), and one of Walton/Spike/MAAR get injured........which isn't far fetched at all

What if one of our young bigs transfers out before '16? I won’t speculate as to who that would be out of fairness to the kids, but if we end up with Doyle, Donnel, Wilson, Teske, and Wagner, all within 2-3 years of each other, doesn’t it stand to reason that someone will see the writing on the wall? I get that 1-2 of those guys may be able to provide a few minutes at the 4, but I think Chatman and Robinson are the future at that position.

I guess my point is that I agree that UM is stockpiling too many similar players but they have more information than we do – maybe they expect attrition in the post and expect to focus on landing a creator in the near future. Obviously they’d have to pursue and land that guy, but do you think that’s a possibility?

Of course it’s a possibility, and I think the staff may be going all out for Langford. But of Caris leaves and we take another project type kid in 15, we’re out of scholarships. Things just don’t seem to be trending well with recruiting at this point. We just need more ball handling and less guys that stand in a corner…more balance