If we look at it like this that’s 20 guard minutes and 26 forward minutes.
So, 20 minutes for the winner of the Bufkin vs Collins vs Zeb
30 minutes at forward fought for by Diabate, Terrence Williams, Barnes, Jace Howard and Tschetter
And it’s possible that Bufkin could grab 10 minutes as a small 3 option if he and one of Collins or Zeb are the 2 best non-Diabate bench guys and Terrence Williams can’t buy a 3.
Best guess is Bufkin for the 20 guard minutes in meaningful games, Diabate gets the minutes at the 4 and Terrence Williams gets the 10 minutes a night backing up Houstan at the 3 and plays another 10 or so some nights at the 4 if he can outshoot Diabate from 3.
That’s an 8 man rotation but leaves Collins and Zeb both on the outside so while I know transfer talk is disliked here, even with Brooks gone and Jones likely too and so enough minutes for all 3 here next year with say Collins and Bufkin starting and Zeb backing up both and Dug getting spot minutes only as a freshman, seems like one might leave next summer.
Overall, when I look at the roster I see good positional versatility but nowhere near enough shooting in the Houstan bench minutes unless Terrance Williams or Johns can really hit 3s, or maybe one of Jones or Brooks is somehow strong enough to guard backup 3s.
I agree with pretty much all your analysis here but I just can’t etch 24 minutes in stone for Johns. A lot of his minutes are up for grabs as well. He could earn them, but it’s not a given like the others
I know you play for the current year but wouldn’t that be to the detriment of the team the following year? A year where Collins didn’t get much PT to go along with Dug, most likely lose Houstan/Dickinson and at this point nothing close to replicating this current recruiting class??
I guess there should be some questions asked then.
If Jones struggles at PG is this a thing where he can’t play SG and Brooks gets moved to PG?
or
Would Bufkin get those minutes at SG?? Or would they rather have Collins at PG and Brooks at SG??
Agreed. I think Johns is as likely to play 10 mins a game as he is 30. If he plays to his full potential and hit 3’s with confidence it’s a different story but we have been waiting for that for years. When it gets to the meat of the schedule I think he takes a backseat as there is really no elite skill he can hang his hat on. He’ll be competing for minutes with Bufkin (better offense), Diabate (better defense) and Williams (similar skill set with a better motor). I’d love to be proven wrong though
I think that is probably 5th or 6th on the list of priorities. Don’t think you can cater your rotation to next year, you have to go and try to win games. Now that doesn’t mean giving young guys some minutes in early-season games or anything, but come Big Ten you have to play your best players.
He’s been in and out of the rotation throughout his career, doesn’t really project well to backup the five and there are three McDonald’s All-Americans and a returning sophomore (Williams) who could impact his minutes in different ways. Not sure how in stone his minutes are. There’s obviously upside there (we are just about out of offseasons to say that) but there are a lot of other chips on the board.
I mean, I think as of now he’s the most likely starter there, but we’ve had like 2.75 years of pretty poor play with only a five game (admittedly high-stakes) stretch as a starter in an extremely streamlined role in which he played mostly pretty well as a balance.
I know I’m one of the foremost Johns skeptics here, but I don’t think he’s a given. I think Davante Jones and Caleb Houstan are probably more “sure things” than he is.
Johns played 30m vs UCLA and was the only one that didn’t fall flat that night. That, plus his overall performance after Livers’ injury, in my mind, pretty much negated all his poor showing 2+3/4 season before that. He also shot 79.8% from the FT line and 36.8% from 3 point line over last season, not spectacular but very solid numbers. Yes, he has to work for his minutes in the rotation, but he is our third best returning player by a big margin.
As we have zero data point on all incoming freshmen, and Jones is a lower major transfer, I don’t see how Johns is not standing on a more solid ground, other than Hunter and Eli, when the season starts.
I just think there is really no alternative to Houstan at the three (Williams doesn’t psyche me up at that spot), and Jones is pretty much written in stone to start the year.
Obviously, if they struggle, anything can happen…but that applies to Johns too.
I agree that Houston is shoe in to start at 3 as we have zero returning minutes at that position. I don’t see T-will there either, I give Zeb/Nunez better chance as the back-ups.
Caleb Houstan played on a HS team that could have beaten D1 teams. Then led Canada in an inteernational tournament and is a 5* recruit unanimously projected to be a lottery pick next year. Also has little to no competition for minutes and provides a skill we desperately need (shooting).
Johns played fine against UCLA but he had by far the easiest job of any other guy playing big minutes. He had 0 rebounds and 0 assists that game. He took 19(!) 3pa last year which is much more relevant than his % imo. Juwan decided he trusted Johns more than Williams so he got all the minutes, which was fine by me and a smart move. But with an offseason now for growth it’s no guarantee Johns gets to hold on to those minutes with some young guys on his tail.
A solid 5 game performance propped up by a 90%FTR is not enough for him to have 25 MPG handed to him. If he continues to get fouled every other shot attempt than he will definitely deserve whatever minutes he gets.
Now that sounds harsh on Johns but I do like him. It’s just that he has Diabate, Williams, and essentially Bufkin and Zeb as well competing with him for minutes. That’s 2 McD AAs and two sophomores
Yeah due to his fitful relationship with rotation minutes, each of Johns individual seasons as a shooter are really tiny samples. Probably most relevant to say he’s a 35% three point shooter and a 71% foul shooter (his career marks). Obviously, he’s worked on these skills, and could possibly be better.
To me, the most encouraging part of Johns’ play at the end of the year was his defense - something he REALLY struggled with prior to that 5 game stretch. Now, he also mostly got to play traditional 4’s.
Yeah the thing about Johns is that he’s been up and down at both ends of the court. E.g. there were periods of time when he just could not slide his feet without fouling on D. He really has to be both a confident shooter and a reliable defender to hold off the competition.
Agreed. More than not sliding his feet, he would look around like, “where am I supposed to be right now?!” Thought he played with so much more confidence (except for taking wide open 3s) at the end of last year.
The honest truth is next year’s rotation is going to be a bloodbath. Eli returning for the extra year and the lack of transfers anywhere else ensured that. Pretty unprecedented in these times to not lose anybody to transfer (especially when considering a lot of these guys committed to a different staff originally).
It’s a great thing for the team - I truly believe they’re the deepest team in the country. But it’s also not realistic to pencil in 9-10 guys for regular minutes and/or assume returning players are guaranteed them over the freshmen. The only thing I’m confident in is that whoever the top 7-8 end up being are going to result in absurdly high level basketball. And my version of that 7-8 probably includes more freshmen than everybody else’s because I’m a sucker for McDAAs
While this team has way more pieces, I do think there are fewer players penciled in to 35+ type roles. Last year you had Eli, Franz and Livers heading into the season in those roles. Mike quickly became one of those guys two and Hunter played as many minutes as he could.
I suspect that there might be more bench minutes available because the starters play fewer minutes individually. At the very least, are not guaranteed on paper to play those minutes at this point.
For a guy like Terrance, he was basically drawing dead as a freshman because those starters were so ingrained. It’s a little different this year.
T think this year’s team will be very good. One of the reasons is that they have at least 12 players that could collect significant minutes in other D1 teams. That should make the practices extremely competitive thus raising the skill and individual player development fast.
If Memphis can add Rasheed to their staff maybe we can add Ben…? All jokes aside Ben I think is doing a nice job in the Pistions office for their g-league
