Duncan doesn’t create for himself. He runs off screens and relies on creative 2 man sets with Bam to get a lot of his shots. We don’t have someone like Bam, so personally disagree that he’d be able to do what he’s doing with the Heat given Michigan’s personnel. And frankly, his defense is mediocre. We need someone that can guard because I trust Caris and THjr to do much of the scoring with GRIII being a 3&D threat with some cutting ability. And Moe provides a lot of offense from the 5 spot.
Think this team beats both UM and MSU.
Why can’t we have creative 2 man sets with Duncan? Bam is not the one creating those looks. Bam is fantastic and can attack and pass well so he’s a great person to run those with him but it can still be done with someone else. Duncan doesn’t create for himself but he creates for others with insane gravity. Leaning on THJ to do a lot of scoring will make sure that it happens far less efficiently than if you run stuff through Duncan.
Also every player on this hypothetical Michigan team is at best a mediocre defender. GRIII probably the only one that rates to above average. Wilson is not a game changing defender in this situation, not close to enough to take out to replace Duncan.
Michigan’s best chance to win is out shooting MSU.
Maybe I’m arguing too much about something that will never happen but I’m just enjoying this hypothetical so much lol.
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What? The Heat have 7 players that average ~20 mins or more who have all taken over 100 3 pt attempts (3 have made way over 100). The worst 3pt %age in the group is Kendrick Nunn at 36.2%. Not sure whether it is outstanding but it is a poor choice of words to say “not great”. The top 7 are:
Duncan (243/543, 44.8%, 30mpg),
Kelly Olnek (80/185, 43.2%, 18.5 mpg),
Meyers Leonard (51/119, 42.9%, 20.1mpg),
Tyler Herro (99/253, 39.1%, 27.2mpg),
Solomon Hill (59/156, 37.8%, 18.4mpg),
Gorin Dragic (118/313, 37.7%, 28.4mpg),
Kendrick Nunn (131/362, 36.2%, 29.8mpg).
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Not disputing those stats, but I’d be interested to see the surrounding cast Duncan is usually playing with. Most of those guys you’ve mentioned are bench players save Nunn. Jimmy Butler and Bam are not shooters. Nunn is slightly above average. And Derrick Jones Jr. who as of late was part of the starting line up, is also not a shooter.
They’re 10th in the league in attempts, 6th in makes, and 1st in %
Obviously Robinson shapes that but they’re pretty good otherwise.
His most common lineups:
- Bam, Nunn, Butler, Meyers Leonard (2 other 3 point shooters)
- Bam, Butler, Nunn, Derrick Jones (1 other shooter)
- Crowder, Dragic, Igoudala, Olynyk (like…2.5 other shooters?)
- Bam, Butler, Herro, Leonard (2 other shooters)
- Bam, Jones, Nunn, Olynyk (2 other shooters)
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Damn, that volume for Duncan is INSANE. Shame he likely won’t get a full season of stats in. Man is going to get PAID!
That is absurd amount of threes
He was on pace to make more 3s in a year than anyone not named Steph Curry, James Harden, or Paul George.
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Thanks for looking into that. Maybe the better term to use would’ve been “not prolific” rather than “not great” given the fact that the Heat may be ranked 10th in total 3 point shooting, but they are only 1.0 three point attempts away from average (34.8 for Heat, 33.8 for Trailblazers at 15th in NBA) and are closer to the 29th ranked team in this stat than they are to the 2nd ranked team.
That said, based on the line-ups you’ve listed, I don’t think people would classify any one of those as excellent from a spacing perspective. Nunn’s 36% is essentially league average (.357 being average) and Leonard’s 2.4 3P attempts per game isn’t exactly earth shattering. My point being, Duncan provides a ton of value for the Heat in the form of 3 point shooting, which is why he starts for them.
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ANYWAY, my take here is that the MSU starting 5 is better (also not sure I’d play Miles Bridges over Brynn Forbes). I think Harris-Forbes-JJJ-Draymond is more than good enough defensively to cover for Valentine’s horridness. Draymond MAY be washed, but the last time we saw him play a game that mattered, he was still elite at what he’s always be elite at. JJJ is better than anyone of the Michigan guys, in my opinion, and Harris and Forbes manage to be not too suspect.
Caris hasn’t shown he can be an effecient offensive player, and this year was really the first time Hardaway was one. Wagner is a good offensive player with major defensive issues, and Duncan isn’t good either. I just think we’d get carved up.
He was on pace to beat PG’s total too. Only Steph and Harden would have been above him in terms of makes. I spent like an hour and a half last week looking up historically great 3pt shooting seasons.
Outside of 2-3 Steph seasons, I think Duncan has a very strong claim for being on pace for the next greatest three point shooting season ever.
By the way, Steph’s 2015-16 season legitimately confounds belief. He shot over 11 threes a game and made 45.4% of them. Insane.
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And to be fair, DRob’s first full season in the NBA. Steph shot 4.8 3pa/game at 43.7% his rookie year, a total of 166/380. Whoa! DRob shot 243/543. For further context, Steph shot 402/886 for 45.4% on 3pa in 2015-2016. Holy sh!t!! He was a crazy 58% from 30-35 feet on 26 attempts.
Edit: This has been a fun investigation. The advanced stats available at NBA.COM are unbelievable.
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Duncan’s time here was a bit inconsistent, so I really hope he can sustain his level of shooting for years to come. If he drops even 5% in 3 pt shooting, he can very well become a negative impact player with his defense.
if by character, you mean euphemism for ________.
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It’s as much about the spacing advantages Duncan creates as the actual 3s.
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Can’t believe Meyers Leonard pushing 43%. I questioned him leaving early. Damn he really improved his game
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He saved his career. Was a negative player in Portland
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Duncan Spacing…any where between half court and the three point line…
Q: Ira, Erik Spoelstra doesn’t say much about strategy and sometimes doesn’t even tell you his lineup, so why let everybody know that he won’t let Duncan Robinson play inside the 3-point line on offense? – Nunez.
A: Actually, Duncan Robinson has told that story far more often than Erik Spoelstra. And it’s not as if it’s a secret, based on Duncan’s shot charts. The difference is that it’s not as if there is a specific spot that the Heat are seeking to set up Duncan. He utilizes just about every spot above the arc. And the difference in today’s NBA, is all the space well beyond the arc, as well. Even if you know you only have to guard Duncan beyond the 3-point line, there still is the issue of how far behind, with Duncan moving to Trae Young and Steph Curry range. Basically, anywhere between the 3-point line and midcourt of Robinson range. So even with the paint and midrange out of the equation, there still is ample real estate to maximize Duncan.
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