Counterpoint: their Big Ten schedule is once again comically easy this year. Might not matter.
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That’s fair, but Jaden Ivey isn’t expected to be the PG for Purdue. His role is going to be a lot more focused on creating for himself before he creates for others, which is an easier role to take on. We also have Ivey’s play for Team USA indicating that he’s begun to take the leap we expect.
And even if Ivey doesn’t take the full leap that we expect, we know what Purdue can still look like. That’s running the offense through Trevion like they did last year, which gets us a top 25 level team. In reality that’s probably better this year when Ivey will improve to some degree, along with all the other freshmen. If Curbelo doesn’t take the leap we expect, what does Illinois look like? Are they playing through 5 assist Kofi? Or 12.8% assist rate Frazier?
I agree that Illinois is undervalued in the sense that they should probably be ahead of teams like OSU/MSU/Maryland as a consensus, like I said I’d have them top 3. I think that’s considering them in the mix at the top. But I also think there are some massive holes on that roster where besides that PG/C combo, you pretty much just have a bunch of 6’2 JAS’s. That gives me pause to put them #1, especially since there’s a chance that best point guard doesn’t turn into the best point guard.
I agree with this, but I don’t think Kofi is what gets Illinois to league title contenders. No one really seems to be expecting a “breakout” season for Kofi where he does anything differently than he has the last two years. People just expect Kofi to be Kofi, and that a jump from Curbelo along with the play of the role players would lead to Illinois being a top level team if they get there. It’s very possible that Kofi is the same dominant player that he has been (dominates smaller teams inside, works well in the P&R with Curbelo, and is a defensive presence at the rim) but the rest of Illinois lags behind (Curbelo is the same player as last year, the rest of the role players remain JAS, and the perimeter defense is exposed because of the lack of size). In that case you can think that version of Kofi is the best player in the league but not good enough to carry Illinois to a league title.
Number of games against teams from Dylan’s tier list:
Tier 1: Michigan, Purdue
Tier 2: Illinois, Ohio State
Tier 3: Maryland, Michigan State, Indiana
Tier 4: Wisconsin, Rutgers and Iowa
Tier 5: Northwestern, Penn State, Nebraska and Minnesota
| Tier 1 | Tier 2 | Tier 3 | Tier 4 | Tier 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Purdue | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| Illinois | 4 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Ohio State | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Maryland | 2 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| Michigan State | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Indiana | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Rutgers | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Iowa | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| Northwestern | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| Penn State | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Nebraska | 3 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| Minnesota | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
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When people talk about Purdue being so young and having a bunch of freshmen that may make a leap this year, who besides Ivey and Edey are we talking about? Is it Newman and Gillis, the two RS Freshmen that were in the rotation last year?
We’re probably nit-picking the pecking order at the top a little too much at this stage. Purdue, Illinois, and Michigan are all going to be good and any of those three have a chance to be great. I tend to like the best 5-6 players on Illinois more than those on Purdue personally. You might be able to argue that Michigan has the most likely variance given that they’re replacing 4 of their top six players from last year while the other two aren’t.
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I’d have the Illini 3rd because they don’t seem like they have a ton of upside at the forward spot, though I guess they could even go with 4 guards and Kofi and Underwood is the right coach for that sort of Villanova 2006 team
No doubt Ayo is a big loss…,…but they did well without forwards last year.
Do Illinois and Purdue single play? They both have an odd number in Tier 1 and Tier 2. That could matter.
Edey will be interesting to watch especially because he will be the third 7 footer in the Big Ten that teams need to defend. I will be curious to see how much he has improved compared to last season
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That’s what I see too is that they will miss that guy that makes clutch shots but I could be wrong