93grad, there is no contradiction. UM will have scholarships to give, but it likely will be a small class. 2012 had 5, 2014 had 6 (partially b/c Hatch reclassified), 2009 and 2010 had 4. On the other hand, 2013 had 3. 2015 is likely to be a small class in that it will be 3, maybe even 2. But we will have scholarships for 2 or 3 top guys.
As for “Plan C” guys, look at the top 3 recruits in the last 3 classes: 2012 - McGary, GRIII, Stausas; 2013: Irvin, Walton, Donnal; 2014 - Chatman, Wilson, Doyle. None of these were “Plan C” recruits. Indeed, those are all top 100 guys outside of Doyle, who never played AAU, had early offers from OSU, ND, PU, Creighton, etc. Even 2011 had Trey and Brundidge (a top 100 guy), etc., etc. Every year we are getting 2, usually 3 top guys, in each class, with particular depth and high-rankings the past three years. Sometimes we take one or two more, often in spring, depending on how things shake out. And those Plan C guys have worked out pretty well, overall. The results in recruiting and on the court have been pretty decent.
Of course the results in recruiting and on the court have more than been “pretty decent.” That has never been my point. Nor could anyone argue with the 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes.
My only point is that 2015 recruiting has been frustratingly slow for unknown reasons. And given that 2014 included 2 plan c guards (I still say Chatman is a 3/4), we can’t afford to have the same thing happen in 2015. Sure this staff does an excellent job of identifying and developing sleepers, but you can’t have a team full of sleepers. You need to mix in stars as well and with Lavert and/or Irvin likely gone after the year, it becomes even more important. If we land one or both of the Jalens then all is fine. But that is a risky play for 2 kids that could just as easily go elsewhere.
As for 2016 looking good we were told the same things about the 2015 class this time last year when were striking out on Booker, Blackmon, Blueitt, etc.
Maybe I am coming off more negative than I mean to, but I see real cause for concern with this class
Saying that Zak will likely be gone after the year is a stretch – a big stretch. He made 23 twos last year. That’s it. He has a long way to go. Not saying I don’t love his potential or anything like that, but penciling him out is a bit silly.
For reference, Chatman and DJ Wilson committed in October 2013. So at this point last year, we had Doyle (committed March 2013) and Hatch as '14 commits. We may have been focused more on Blueitt and Booker in May '13, but thinks worked out pretty well despite not getting those guys.
And for the '15-'16 season, we probably will have Irvin and Chatman for the wings, even without any additional commits. DJ Wilson could probably slide down to the 3 if Irvin (or Chatman) goes pro – which would mean another stellar year for UM – with Donnal spending time at the 4. The point is, we are well set up for the future even if '15 doesn’t work out, but there is every reason to think that we’ll wind up with a quality wing in '15.
93GRAD, I don’t see cause for concern if you believe in the system. JB teaches the game and controls the action on the floor. His recipe is one that will be repeated time and again, shoot the three, limit or eliminate turnovers and value each possession for the best possible shot. His teams will mostly be coachable kids who want to win, work hard and care for each other. High character guys who will preserve the culture…I trust the results over the hype. Not sure you will ever see too many predetermined stars on a JB team but you will see them made and developed! Pick the apple baby!
93grad, there is no contradiction. UM will have scholarships to give, but it likely will be a small class. 2012 had 5, 2014 had 6 (partially b/c Hatch reclassified), 2009 and 2010 had 4. On the other hand, 2013 had 3. 2015 is likely to be a small class in that it will be 3, maybe even 2. But we will have scholarships for 2 or 3 top guys.
As for “Plan C” guys, look at the top 3 recruits in the last 3 classes: 2012 - McGary, GRIII, Stausas; 2013: Irvin, Walton, Donnal; 2014 - Chatman, Wilson, Doyle. None of these were “Plan C” recruits. Indeed, those are all top 100 guys outside of Doyle, who never played AAU, had early offers from OSU, ND, PU, Creighton, etc. Even 2011 had Trey and Brundidge (a top 100 guy), etc., etc. Every year we are getting 2, usually 3 top guys, in each class, with particular depth and high-rankings the past three years. Sometimes we take one or two more, often in spring, depending on how things shake out. And those Plan C guys have worked out pretty well, overall. The results in recruiting and on the court have been pretty decent.
Of course the results in recruiting and on the court have more than been “pretty decent.” That has never been my point. Nor could anyone argue with the 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes.
My only point is that 2015 recruiting has been frustratingly slow for unknown reasons. And given that 2014 included 2 plan c guards (I still say Chatman is a 3/4), we can’t afford to have the same thing happen in 2015. Sure this staff does an excellent job of identifying and developing sleepers, but you can’t have a team full of sleepers. You need to mix in stars as well and with Lavert and/or Irvin likely gone after the year, it becomes even more important. If we land one or both of the Jalens then all is fine. But that is a risky play for 2 kids that could just as easily go elsewhere.
As for 2016 looking good we were told the same things about the 2015 class this time last year when were striking out on Booker, Blackmon, Blueitt, etc.
Maybe I am coming off more negative than I mean to, but I see real cause for concern with this class
Legitimate points all around IMO. Lets hope we have a good feeling on Coleman and it materializes. Starting to wonder if Brunson is slipping away?
I so agree Dylan. I don’t like the vibe I’m getting regarding Brunson. Sure hope fans aren’t basing their entire hopes for the class on him. I’ve gotta believe the coaches feel pretty confident about a couple targets deep down. Maybe Derryck is one?
I think the positive of Thornton, Jr is getting a top PG early in the process allows him to attract talent to play with him. Michigan is in on some big names that would like somebody getting them the ball. TJ Leaf, Tyus Battle, Matt Moyer, Seth Towns, Caleb Swanigan, etc
I’m not really sure how slow is such a bad thing. I mean, it’s pretty obvious to me that Beilein and company are content with our big’s, so there’s no need to rush and throw out an offer on someone they’re not 100% on or, are in dire need of. Beilein has, and always will, run one big man. We have three. 2016 will be the year they go after another big man. We’re set at the 4, we have two, Chatman and Wilson. No need to rush an offer. We’re set at the 1, Walton and Spike, no need to rush for an offer(MAAR possible 1?). The only place I see us in “real need” is at the 2/3. If Irvin blows up and Levert stays on course, they’re both gone next year. That leaves us with MAAR and Dawkins. If you look at the offer list, we’ve offered (plan A) Brunson and (plan B) Coleman, both fit our area of need. Beilein has the wiggle room to be picky for once, which is awesome. The way I see it, having so few scholarships to give out, only means one thing; We have a healthy program. But, maybe it’s just this cool-aid I’ve been drinking the last few years finally kicking in…