It seems to me that while the league definitely prefers freak athletes, it doesn’t mean that all freak athletes will succeed and have long and fruitful careers. There are definitely some hyped guys with jet-packs in their feet who are rudimentary ball handlers, questionable decision-makers and streaky-at-best shooters, who could theoretically benefit from 2-4 years with a good college coach. It might not help their draft stock but could help them avoid getting shipped to Europe (or worse places) in a couple years when they’re no longer the flavor du jour.
Edit: none of this necessarily applies to Brown, who I consider to be essentially NBA ready.
Alum05 is exactly right. No one is saying Beilein can give players physical attributes they don’t possess. But he can develop their offensive games really well in two years, which translates into them being wanted by NBA teams. Contrast that with Gary Harris, who shot .294 from the floor this year while certainly possessing far more athleticism than Trey or Nik.
This has been my exact argument against development translating to the NBA. To a large extent, NBA players are born, and not made. You can get better for the college game because, quite frankly, it just isn't that good. The NBA is full of freak athletes, that can overcome nearly any amount of skill. This is the exact reason Burke has struggled in the NBA............just doesn't have the immutable traits necessary to succeed in the league.
I presume that even you believe that without skill development, guys like Burke and Stauskas, i.e. without elite athleticism, wouldn’t be in the NBA at all.
It's PC talk but at least it's a probably a good sign for Michigan that he's thoughtful about his development. On rare occasions, top-ranked guys might stick around if they still have something left to prove (Barnes and Sullinger come to mind), but even that era may be over, with some very raw players jumping to the league despite weak freshmen campaigns.
It’s interesting to discuss because out of all the guys who have left Michigan for the NBA Hardaway Jr has been the most successful. Beilein and Michigan might develop skills for players but it hasn’t translated into a lot of success for those players at the next level. Now I do think Brown is a different type of guy who’s skills translate better to the NBA than other Michigan players who have left for the NBA. I am not sure there’s a lot Brown could do at Michigan he couldn’t do elsewhere as well.
This has been my exact argument against development translating to the NBA. To a large extent, NBA players are born, and not made. You can get better for the college game because, quite frankly, it just isn’t that good. The NBA is full of freak athletes, that can overcome nearly any amount of skill. This is the exact reason Burke has struggled in the NBA…just doesn’t have the immutable traits necessary to succeed in the league.
Correct even one of Burke’s good traits at Michigan was being a defender but he can’t defend his own position now. He could shoot at Michigan but the players are bigger/faster/stronger and he can’t hit shots. Brown should be able to overcome that in the NBA regardless of the school he attends. I hope it’s Michigan but it’s nothing more than a 20% chance right now.
You think all 5 remaining schools have equal chances? You do realize that other factors influence the chance %, right? Give me 5:1 odds of Brown choosing Michigan if you are so sure those are the odds.
Even the biggest realist or pessimist in the fan base would concede that Michigan has a slight edge over other schools for a variety of reasons (ie. family ties and Adidas affiliation). You saying its 20% at best is laughable.
As Hail says, I think the chances exceed 20% based on all information we are privy to at this point, probably somewhere in the 35-50% range for me personally.
Also, Matt, I think it would be far more accurate to say NBA stars are born and not made. It’s very conceivable that a guy like Nik sticks around for years as a shooting specialist, even without elite athleticism (there are a lot of average athletes in the NBA who are role players). It’s also very conceivable that if he had gone to MSU and spent four years focusing on grabbing and holding players on defense, he wouldn’t have developed the offensive skill set to play in the NBA at all. He certainly wasn’t on anyone’s draft board after his freshman year.
The most interesting tidbit I took from this morning’s WTKA recruiting roundup with Webb is that he has “come around” to Brian Snow’s thought that it’s UM or UK. (Whereas before he had heard KU I believe?)
Reaching a bit further, it sounded to me like Sam is convinced that if the talk of player development is real talk and not just PC speak (something which nobody likely will really know), then he thinks it is UM. Obviously nobody will know outside of Jaylen until he actually makes that decision though.
As Hail says, I think the chances exceed 20% based on all information we are privy to at this point, probably somewhere in the 35-50% range for me personally.
Yeah, he might not come. There are still some recruiting juggernauts there and I’m not sure how easy it is to turn down a desperate John Calipari. That being said, to say that Michigan and Cal or Michigan and UNC are dead even at this point is hogwash.
I presume that even you believe that without skill development, guys like Burke and Stauskas, i.e. without elite athleticism, wouldn't be in the NBA at all.
OK, you agree, so then wouldn’t it stand to reason that an elite athlete PLUS skill development creates a better NBA player than one with “just” elite athleticism?
Sounds like Brown wants to maximize his game (like a Kobe or Michael, two notoriously hard workers), rather than just cash pro checks.
One thing that gives me comfort about Beilein’s skill development is all the NBA dads that send their kids to him. It’s more than just a coincidence.
I definitely think actions (or in this case, offers) speak louder than insider’s words. I think UK going for Kirk is definitely a sign of some sort, though maybe more to just avoid striking out completely on SFs for the class. Not so sure on the Miles Bridges offer.
I presume that even you believe that without skill development, guys like Burke and Stauskas, i.e. without elite athleticism, wouldn't be in the NBA at all.
OK, you agree, so then wouldn’t it stand to reason that an elite athlete PLUS skill development creates a better NBA player than one with “just” elite athleticism?
Sounds like Brown wants to maximize his game (like a Kobe or Michael, two notoriously hard workers), rather than just cut pro checks.
One thing that gives me comfort about Beilein’s skill development is all the NBA dads that send their kids to him. It’s more than just a coincidence.
I agree in principle, just don’t think JB/UM develops skill that will enhance players on the NBA level if that makes sense. Basically, a player such as Brown will practice against sub-par athletes and defenders…in essence it doesn’t prepare him for the speed an athleticsim he will face in the NBA. Long story short, nothing prepares you for the NBA, but the NBA, in my opinion. Practice against the best, along with FULL TIME skill development, far exceeds anything JB/UM can do. Moral of the story - JB can take a marginal guy and showcase/develop him, but can’t do anything for a guy like Brown, at least as it relates to NBA on court success.
Good piece on Brown from Webb. His trainer essentially recommended UM to Brown, at which point Brown's uncle (UM alum) made a call to the coaching staff, and everything took off from there. Love the fact that Jordan is the lead recruiter for Brown. Bonus fact - Brown's cousin is currently a student at UM and member of Maize Rage.
There has been talk about how our championship and elite 8 run didn’t have any effect on recruiting. Clearly, based on this article, this is not true. The pitch that was given to Brown was how all those guys came in as non top 100 players, and became lottery picks. No way he would have ever considered us, and actually reached out to us, without Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway making the huge splash that they did.
No doubt that oncourt success opened some doors that were previously closed. It has yet to be seen how well the staff can do in capitalizing on those new opportunities. It is nice to get your foot in the door, but until the top recruits actually start signing it doesn’t mean much.
I think this is the ideal progression we are hopefully in the midst of right now:
Step 1: Achieve moderate success (i.e. compete for conference championships and just get your school’s name on the dang bracket sheet)
Step 2a: Make a couple of deep runs in the tourney to increase exposure
Step 2b: Put some players in the NBA to increase exposure
Step 3: Land that ONE recruit that jolts the recruiting environment (i.e. hopefully Brown). I think we hoped Mitch was that guy, but he was ahead of the curve and obviously there were circumstances that led him to Michigan
Step 4: Continue to land 1-2 upper echelon recruits moving forward (lets be honest, we’re never going to be Kentucky, Duke, etc…but as MattD has said before, we’d take 1 star recruit every year moving forward!)
Hoping we are about to check Step 3 off the list
Just my thoughts for how this program can truly become elite given the staff’s philosophies and the overall landscape of competing with the bluebloods.
I agree in principle, just don't think JB/UM develops skill that will enhance players on the NBA level if that makes sense. Basically, a player such as Brown will practice against sub-par athletes and defenders...................in essence it doesn't prepare him for the speed an athleticsim he will face in the NBA. Long story short, nothing prepares you for the NBA, but the NBA, in my opinion. Practice against the best, along with FULL TIME skill development, far exceeds anything JB/UM can do. Moral of the story - JB can take a marginal guy and showcase/develop him, but can't do anything for a guy like Brown, at least as it relates to NBA on court success.
Is it my homer glasses, or to your point, with Caris, Irvin, and Dawkins, do we offer a stronger practice environment then Kentucky this year for practicing against NBA talent (recognizing that most years, of course, Kentucky will be deeper with NBA wing talent than Michigan)?
Quick question, where do Brian Snow and Sam get information on a recruitment like Browns. Is it through direct contact, talking to family members or just gut feelings?
I agree in principle, just don't think JB/UM develops skill that will enhance players on the NBA level if that makes sense. Basically, a player such as Brown will practice against sub-par athletes and defenders...................in essence it doesn't prepare him for the speed an athleticsim he will face in the NBA. Long story short, nothing prepares you for the NBA, but the NBA, in my opinion. Practice against the best, along with FULL TIME skill development, far exceeds anything JB/UM can do. Moral of the story - JB can take a marginal guy and showcase/develop him, but can't do anything for a guy like Brown, at least as it relates to NBA on court success.
Is it my homer glasses, or to your point, with Caris, Irvin, and Dawkins, do we offer a stronger practice environment then Kentucky this year for practicing against NBA talent (recognizing that most years, of course, Kentucky will be deeper with NBA wing talent than Michigan)?
I think all of those guys (UM guys) are subpar defenders to be honest…so I’d say no. Although, Booker is very suspect as well. I definitely like Ulis as a defender, and the Harrisons are decent as well.
Alum05 is exactly right. No one is saying Beilein can give players physical attributes they don't possess. But he can develop their offensive games really well in two years, which translates into them being wanted by NBA teams. Contrast that with Gary Harris, who shot .294 from the floor this year while certainly possessing far more athleticism than Trey or Nik.
I think one thing we fail to do is fail to give the credit to the players more than the coach. The coach can merely give the players the tools to succeed it’s up to the player what they want to do with those tools.
Quick question, where do Brian Snow and Sam get information on a recruitment like Browns. Is it through direct contact, talking to family members or just gut feelings?
All three. Sam in particular has been in contact with Jaylen’s uncle.
I think all of those guys (UM guys) are subpar defenders to be honest............so I'd say no. Although, Booker is very suspect as well. I definitely like Ulis as a defender, and the Harrisons are decent as well.
