I'm a little nervous


#1

About our heavy reliance on shooting threes. I know it’s a beilein team and it’s his calling card but I was hoping we’d adjust. Take 5 less threes a gage or so. We only have 3-4 shooters we can rely on now so I was hoping we’d adjust. I think good teams are gonna make us pay and I doubt we have a ton of days where we hit a high clip.

We really could be an elite running team and I hope we keep adjusting that way. Both Eli and x can push the break with the latter thriving in that role. Pushing it with maar and Mathews plus Wagner just makes sense. Than you got Ibi, livers, Poole and Duncan all playing well in that style too. I feel we couod get a ton of easy baskets if we adjust.

Also maar, chArles and moe all score at the rim well. I really hope we adjust against better competition
. This team has sleeper potential once everybody is comfy. X showed last year he can get to the rim. And he can finish or has good vision. I’m convinced Simpson will still be a good big ten pg. a platoon with him and Eli will work.

Has anyone considered how good we’d be next year if Mathews and Wagner stay? Or if even one stays? Imagine if Wilson was here. I said it a lot last year but if dj stayed we were going to the final 4. I’m convinced of it.


#2

Interesting thread title lol. We will never run a lot because we don’t force a lot of turnovers or missed shots for that matter, to go along with the methodical pace of Beilein’s offense.

We’re currently shooting 36.5% from 3 which is decent, and that’s with MAAR at 33%, Mo at 37% and Duncan at 40%, all of which will only go up or stay static.

I have absolutely no issue with the amount of 3s we’re taking. In fact if we get out in transition we will probably take just as many 3s as we do in the halfcourt. Duncan and Mo are great as trailers on the fastbreak.


#3

Would be surprised to find out that MSU averaged 21 threes per game to our 24 per game last season?


#4

I haven’t seen a lot of games live this year and I spent my last few days off watching some games.

My take away is I think we could end up being very good again. We need to be more consisteht for sure but I truly feel we have the talent to make a run.

Teskes play is huge as I think our bench is obviously weak right now but it’s got potential. I don’t think Simpson is as weak as everyone states though. I saw a lot of things I still liked out of him even if it’s not in the box score.

I think our d could be good and potentially better than most previous years. On the perimeter most guys move well and have active hands. I also think our rebounding could potentially be decent for once.

We still go through too many scoring ruts which has been a problem in coach bs tenure but a lot of that is relying on the deep ball in years past. This year I think it’s been poor decision making it looks like, along with guys finding their niche.

I think by the end of the year the pg platoon of Eli and X will be solid enough that it won’t hurt us. Hell they could end up being a nice combo.i do think playing moe with teske for spurts might end up being a good idea and in certain matchups it could be useful.

Mathews, Maar, and Wagner is a great trio. I think they could lead us pretty far. I’m pretty optimistic here and I think coach b has shown he can do a lot with far worse. The program is pretty talented right now. If they can blend this group just right another deep run is possible and with the influx of 18s next year I think we’re on a big run here.


#5

33.7% of MSU’s FGAs are threes.
Michigan is at 43.5%.

It’s a big gap. The raw numbers hide it a bit because of our slow pace.

I believe there is a pretty strong correlation between three point attempt rate and offensive rating though, but I guess I don’t have the exact numbers on that.


#6

For context, 45% of our shots last year were 3s, 40% of our shots in '13-'14 were 3s, and 34% of our shots in '12-'13 were threes. Especially with a center that takes 3s and a turnover-averse philosophy, I doubt we’ll shot far fewer 3s than we have, though the number could drop a little.

And according to hoop-math, 30% of our shots so far have been “transition” - shots within the first 10 seconds of a possession. Last year it was 20%, in '13-'14 it was 23%, and in '12-'13 it was 29%. I don’t think we’re going to run much more than we are already, but it would be nice to keep up the transition offense. Of course, transition shots can be 3s – indeed, these can be some of the most efficient shots in the game.


#7

What was our transition number in non conf only? I feel like Uc riverside and Chaminade will let us run more than Wisconsin and Purdue.


#8

Pretty tough to be an elite running team when you’re a below average rebounding and defensive team (which we pretty much always have been and probably always will be under Beilein). Lacking those things, the only real way to make up the deficit is by shooting a lot of threes and making a healthy percentage (at least 38-40%). You can help by avoiding fouls and turnovers, and shooting FTs well, but as frustrating as it may be, Beilein’s teams are largely going to live and die by the three against quality competition.


#9

I believe X goes by Z now :slight_smile:


#10

Is that this season?


#11

I’ve been meaning to ask that. I must have missed the memo.What’s up with the name switch?


#12

Zavier is his birth name, he reverted to it for undisclosed personal reasons.


#13

Yes. Per KenPom’s team pages


#14

Too small sample size. That’s why I looked at last season.


#15

So, last year Michigan was at 45.1% (ranked 18). State was at 38.0% (ranked 136).

So, I’m guessing that MSU’s current year number will maybe increase to 35% or so? But I expect it to be lower than last year due to stylistic changes (last year was probably Izzo’s smallest team ever).


#16

In a vacuum I will never be upset about Michigan shooting the open three, whether on a kickout in transition or as a result of their offensive action. Being able to space the defense out should benefit every player on the floor and constantly put the defense in conflict.


#17

And to be honest, through the first couple games it’s impossible to criticize the quality of looks that we’re getting, even if they weren’t going down at the beginning. It’s what Beilein builds his offense around and there’s little to no chance of it changing.


#18

I stated I haven’t seen all the games this year like the previous years and I watched most or all of the last few on YouTube so I’m going box score on some thoughts here in certain games.

I thought there were some forced tres. I saw a large number of attempts a couple games and I just don’t think that’s in this years squads best interest. on a 3-2 break I’d prefer we go for the easy lay up with this roster instead of the open three from most the rroster.

I guess with guys like Mathews, Eli , z, Ibi and pretty much everybody not named Duncan I’d like to see us going to the rim or feeding the block as opposed to a slightly contested three.

We’re not good enough on offense/ from deep to make up for long scorning droughts like we were in years past. That’s been one downfall of coach bs offense /reliance on the three ball is that at least once a game we always seem to go on a 3-5 min drought. Maybe more. I don’t see us shooting well enough to make up for those later on in games like we have in years past.

I just really like this teams potential if they play to their strengths and get comfortable with eachother and their roles on the team. Poole stepping up off the bench along with eli and x stepping up would be awesome. We need someone outside of teske giving us points off the bench.


#19

More Poole almost guarantees more threes. He’s a gunner right now. If you want fewer threes you want less Poole.


#20

This is a real good read.