NCAA pushed back three point line this year, there are some same talks in NBA, even proposals of eliminating it completely which I doubt will ever happen. But I am certain that the game will be more balanced in the coming decades.
You can be successful with the post and driving as your featured offense
Agreed but I am talking about Howard adapting to the college game from the NBA along with his recruiting. I think the learning process for Howard will be a sharp curve not a gradual one. This happens not only because of his age but Howard is looking to learn the recruiting process. Beilein had his same process for decades, I have wondered how many top student athletes we have lost because of it.
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I disagree. One-third of the shots in the NBA are 3s. Itâs now the bread and butter of the league and has been further driven by consumer preference. It will take another Shaq for anyone to be interested in a Shaq-like offense.
If it becomes more balanced, it will certainly have to be by rule changes. Which could happen. But as basketball stands now, and for the foreseeable future, it will be 3 point focused. Not just because 3>2, but because the threat of it opens up everything else (driving, midrange, post ups) to be more effective.
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Also, it seems to me that the NBA and college are converging schematically. A decade ago Beileinâs offensive approach was an outlier in college and even rarer in the pros. Now at both levels you routinely see four (if not five) out and an emphasis on 3s and shots at the rim. Plus the college game has shortened its shot clock to become closer to the NBA amount.
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Consumers want to see nothing but threes? I donât think thatâs true
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Yes, I agree. I wasnât talking about recruiting and didnât flesh out my point. I think Howard will adapt quickly because he started coaching in a different era and a completely different environment. Beilein is a system coach. Part of the reason for his success was that his system was ahead of the curve. He forced opposing coaches to change what they ran. He adapted quite a lot in recent years, picking up things from new assistants or realizing that he had to change. But at heart heâs a system coach and has an ingrained way of doing things.
Juwan played in a variety of systems and started coaching in the age of analytics, where youâre expected to change and adapt all the time. I expect that to carry over some into recruiting and other responsibilities that are new with this job.
The one thing Beilein and Howard have in common is strong principles.
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a pump fake and a dribble into a 10-15 foot shot is still a good shot.
i do think there is an opportunity in the mid range to keep teams more off balanced. EV on shots only works so much. kevin durant makes a living with elbow and mid range in addition to his 3pt and getting to rack
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Who knew there were this many people opposed to good shot selection?
The debate on mid-range shots gets sort of jerked around by bad arguments. All mid-range shots are not bad but a team that takes too many is usually going to have a bad offense. You need to shoot enough threes to create spacing at a bare minimum.
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If one-third of shots are 3s, that still means two-thirds arenât.
Yes, thatâs easy to see on offense. Itâs a significant change from not that long ago.
Iâm not sure how well that applies to defense. Perhaps itâs a lot easier to use NBA defensive schemes in college than the other way around. Of course, the defense Howard taught is the one thatâs relevant to us.
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Itâs really just simple math. I think the fallacy is the thought they players shoot a much better percentage closer in but thatâs not necessarily true outside of dunks and layups. Then, when you factor in the extra point for shooting a 3, itâs really a no brainer.
- Three-to-10 feet (NBA as a whole shoots 39.4 percent, which means 0.788 points per shot)
- 11-to-16 feet (41.7 percent, 0.834 points per shot)
- Two-pointers from at least 17 feet (40.1 percent, 0.802 points per shot)
- Three-pointers (36.1 percent, 1.083 points per shot)
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Stats donât differentiate open versus contested shots
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Depends on what youâre looking at. The NBA has public data on shooting percentages sorted by how heavy a contest is.
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Either way, itâs not the point good analytics people are trying to make. If an uncontested long 2 is available, itâs often the case you had the opportunity to get or stay behind the line when you accepted the pass. Likewise with long twos off the dribble. And if thatâs the case, you lowered the expected value of the shot for no good reason.
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unless your james harden of course
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Somehow you turned happy with 1/3 of shots being 3s into ânothing but threesâ.
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Letâs go!!