Another top 5.
I don’t see us in the lead position for any of these guys… BUT if Michigan keeps landing in these top 5’s and trimmed lists as we have been… ya gotta feel decent about the chances of getting 1, maybe 2 of these top 30-40 guys
You’d like to think that the number of “top 5 lists” we’re landing in would result in at least one highly ranked recruit - especially since a lot of those lists include the same schools and they can only sign so many.
But I’ve been following Michigan’s recruiting for a long time and we haven’t had any luck since the Steve Fisher days besides McGary. It is hard to be confident with UNC, UK, and Duke in so many of these recruitments. But we just need that first domino to fall…
Yeah simple math says enough top 5’s and we eventually land one of these guys, but obviously, these recruitments are anything but simple, especially with UK, UNC, Duke, etc involved.
I totally agree that we really need that first domino to fall. It’s a funny situation, being in contention for so many top guys, but not being a clear favorite for any of them. Hopefully visits change that for one or two of these players.
I like Juwan’s recruiting style so far, and it seems that he is making an impact with top players, despite not being on the job for very long. If I had to guess, I would say we get 1 top 30/40 guy in this class. But I dont think anyone at this point could possibly say who that 1 top 30/40 guy would be, which highlights the fact that we’re still not in the drivers seat for anyone.
Did I just see him put the ball on the floor at the three point line dribble for one step and then go into his layup steps and finish at the rim with a finger roll? Those were long strides and very hard for a defender to stop, guy has very good instincts facing up that’s for sure.
There’s a difference between making a top 5 list and being in serious contention. Beilein/UM made RJ Barrett’s too 5 but was never really in it. Beilein actually made the lists for a bunch of one and done kids over the years but the percentages rarely played as you might expect.
This will be the question with Howard. Is he just doing well to get UM mentioned or are these kids going to give him a legitimate shot?
Either way isn’t it good for promoting the Michigan brand?
Again it comes down to JH actually landing one of these targets eventually. Otherwise it’s a choice of whether you’d rather be rejected publicly or privately.
Of course it ultimately comes down to actually getting one. But most of the recuritments we’re in on are decidedly different than the ones JB was in on. I think the only one we had even chance at was Jaylen Brown, and IIRC there we had quite a bit of momentum in that one for a while. I would say in the recruitments of Kessler, Burnett, Cristopher, Springer we have a more momentum than in any 5* JB recruitment outside of Brown.
Having said that, it doesn’t guarantee a commitment from one since the odds of getting a particular group of recruits doesn’t work like the odds of flipping a coin
I think we have a great chance at getting multiple top 50 considering we have so many scholarships to offer. I also think Zeb is one of the best Michigan recruiters. Zeb is a baller that’s underrated in my opinion and is a draw for other players to join him.
I think you are overlooking a number of 5 star kids who Beilein recruited. Leaf, Thornton, Booker, Battle, and Langford all had UM in front at one point. Beilein ended 2nd for at least one Plumlee and was heavily involved with the Zellers. Beilein beat out Duke and UK for McGary, who was still a 5 star on a number of rankings when he committed. GRIII committed as a three star but ended up a 5 star. Irvin and Chatman were 5 stars on some services and so was Iggy, though not all services rank Canadian kids.
Beilein also had UM in good shape with Kessler.
I hope Howard lands some of these kids who are listing UM, but to say he’s closer to getting 5 stars than Beilein based on top 5 lists doesn’t sound accurate.
The 2016 year with Tyus Battle, TJ Leaf, Josh Langford, Derryck Thronton, etc. was the year that I thought Beilein was really close to breaking through and landing multiple 5-stars in a class.
Of course, in 2012* he did land multiple five-stars (GR3, McGary) in a class.
Tyus Battle screwed us that year and he would have been a first round pick at some point if Beilein was his coach. Obviously that is just speculation but there is plenty of evidence to support that Battle may not have been around 4 years under Beilein!
OI wouldn’t include Booker since as soon as he blew up he stopped giving us a thought. But it does look like I have blocked the 2016 class out of my mind from Battle PTSD. My point is that even in 2016 when Beilein was in on the most highly ranked kids he ever had been, it still wasn’t quite this amount with Howard. Take out 2016 and it probably wasn’t even close to an average of 1 a year
Irvin was highly ranked but was more of a regional recruiting battle. Same for Walton. Maybe that’s a bit too nit picky. Probably the biggest recruiting wins of Beilein era were Chatman, McGary, Stauskas, Iggy? Unfortunately Kessler and JAR may have joined that group
Quite a few qualifying statements necessary for most of these guys though… I think it’s more than fair to say that Howard is getting into the final groups of more consensus 5 star types.
edit: to expand on the qualifying statements thing… GRIII shouldn’t really be counted here as a 3 star commitment. Marshall Plumlee wasn’t a top 50 recruit. Irvin was a victory over Illinois, Indiana, Purdue, Butler, and Xavier. Michigan wasn’t in Leaf’s final group. McGary had a big connection with Novak, although that recruitment was definitely still impressive. Iggy had Stauskas in his ear for Michigan and I think we beat Vandy and Florida, so it wasn’t exactly a big blue blood battle. Booker blew up late too.
I think Bamba, Brown, McGary and Langford are really the only recruitments among consensus 5 star type guys (top 15, maybe 20 throughout most of the process) who had Michigan in their final group. Considering Juwan has already equaled that in a couple of months with Christopher, Springer, Todd, and Kessler I think @kturnup’s point is completely valid.
The point of citing the 2016 class or other situations with Beilein is that at one point things looked as good or better for Beilein than they do for Howard right now. In hindsight that can change (for instance, UM was high on Leaf’s list. . . the first time he committed to Az but not involved at all after the decommit). 6 months from now, some of the players currently listing UM may have slipped in the rankings (just like McGary did), and in other cases we will probably realize that making a list wasn’t significant (RJ Barrett put UM on his final list but he was always going to Duke so no one remembers that). Of the kids you list at the end of your post, I see only Kessler as realistic. None of the others have visited or have even scheduled a visit, while Bridges, Jaren Jackson, Kris Wilkes, Maxey, Carton, Kessler (already), and Burnett (already) all at least visited UM with Beilein.
Howard may end up the better recruiter; I hope that is the case, but I think it’s far to early to say he’s getting more traction, especially since Beilein already had a real shot at Kessler and Burnett, the two most likely to actually end up at UM.