Do we even have an offer out to anyone over 6’ 5"?
Why limit shooting to 3s? We scored on more possessions of the mid range variety. That simply doesn’t make sense.
We can’t judge our team against the field? You’ve completely lost me with that. That is basically restricting the data pool to bad and horrible, which is a garbage theory.
You cite ONE player to make the argument that length makes a difference on defense, but somehow fail to acknowledge the fact that we’re an average defensive team at best with above average length at the 2 & 3 spots (Nik, Caris, Irvin, and you can throw in GR3 as a perimeter defender as well). We rank #143 in steals per possession and #154 for opponent TOs per possession. All that to say, that the length doesn’t really aid this team defensively right now.
Again, length may give certain players an advantage on PnR, but it certainly hasn’t helped Caris make good decision, he’s awful at reading PnR. We didn’t shoot over Wisconsin, they simply went under the screen on PnR, and we torched them with 14-18 foot jumpshots all day long.
IF we’re an average defensive team WITH length, what do you think will happen once we remove that? We become Wisconsin.
You can’t grade JB’s teams to other teams defensively, only to his other teams historically. In the context of other JB teams, the length on this team is obviously helping us defensively. Caris and GR3 grade out better (DRTG) than anyone we’ve ever had under JB.
Caris is 19. Nik at 19 wouldn’t be able to run the PnR as effective, either. I think Caris does a great job with the PnR, given he doesn’t have the jumpshot to make defenses pay if they go under, yet. Let’s discuss this next year. Or how about we ask Manny, Darius and Nik if height helps on the PnR?
All of Caris 3s were simple shooting over the defense with no ball screen. Nik does it multiple times a game. Not sure what you are watching?
Because the system is build to be mediocore defensively.
Conversely, a system like Syracuse inflates defensive metrics.
To tell me if length is having an effect, players need to be compared within the same system.
Caris has a RTG of 99 right now. Only Trey has done that ONCE (2013) and you have to go back to Manny Harris. Glenn is at a 100 DRTG, a mark only matched by our 2011 players (Novak, Smote, Hardaway ).
It’s no coincidence that our smaller guards and unathletic guards aren’t hitting those marks.
Let’s be real here, Defensive Rating is a questionable metric at best, and downright garbage to most individuals that follow basketball closely, so that has no impact on the discussion in my view.
The argument that a Syracuse like system inflates defensive metrics is moot as it relates to this discussion for UM. When we play zone, we’re actually more suspect than we are otherwise.
You’re premise of restricting the comparisons to same systems really holds no weight in my eyes - Stu Douglass was ten times better on D that Caris, Nik, GR3, Irvin, or whatever player you can think of with length.
Moral of the story - above average length doesn’t equate to above average defense.
LOL DRTG is only a questionable metric if you compare across teams. I’m sure Kenpom would say the exact same thing about our individual player’s defensive impact.
Our zone isn’t meant to be hyper effective, only a change of pace scheme that confuses other teams for a possession or two. It has utility.
Stu Douglass was nowhere near the defender of GR3 or Caris. That’s you coming up with a narrative because the numbers don’t back that up.
I don’t care what above average length leads to overall defense, I care that length produces the best defenses HERE AT MICHIGAN.
If you think that Caris or GR3 is better than Stu on defense, however you define that word, then there is simply no need to discuss further. That’s laughable. Caris is a below average defender at best, GR3 is average to above average on the perimeter, and downright awful in the post. I’m fully confident in saying that 99.9% of the informed basketball population would argue that Stu was a better defender then either of those 2.
All I hear is excuses about restricting the comparison pool, and justification that our zone is just meant as a change of pace, etc. That’s wack and we both know it. That’s like saying we should leave the Lakers and Celtics out of the discussion as it relates to all time greatest NBA franchises because we’re not talking about winning championships in Detroit, because we can’t possibly achieve that, we have to be content with being the best we can relative to low expectations.
You and this narrative thing you have going - Stu being a better defender is not a narrative, that is reality. YOU create this narrative that Caris is a good defender, based on what he CAN HYPOTHETICALLY do based on “length”. I don’t care about what he CAN do, I care about what he actually does, and it hasn’t been very good for the duration of the season if we’re being realistic about it.
You’re beliefs are fine, just know that no objective facts will support that Stu was anywhere near the caliber of defender that Caris or GR3 are currently.
I think Stu had a better IQ and attitude about playing defense but his tools limited him. The impact just isn’t the same. Give Stu the same physical gifts and that’s a different story but as things stand, LOL @ you for believing something so outlandish.
Most of the informed basketball populations are stat nerds so I’m not sure you’d win that bet either LOL. What Caris “does” translates numerically, something you can’t do the same for Stu.
As for the second paragraph, it doesn’t even make sense. We’re talking about the kind of defensive schemes JB runs and how to maximize them, even if they never will peak at a high defensive level. What other teams do in their systems is irrelevant.
How doesn’t it make sense? Bottom line, if you want to improve upon your defense, invest the time in recruiting to obtain players that are willing to exert energy on the defensive side of the court, and devote time in practice to developing awareness for the various nuances of the defensive end of the court. You think it’s a schematic problem, that’s where we differ, I think its a personnel issue. If you give OSU, MSU, Syracuse our same defensive scheme, I’d be willing to place the deed to my real estate as collateral that those teams would execute our defensive schemes much better than our current team does.
JB doesn’t want to “improve” on the defensive end. His system is his system. Some years it slightly overachieves defensively and other years it does not. It has nothing to do with players because if you put GR3 or LeVevt in Syracuse’s system, their defensive metrics would inflate.
I think it’s schematic. You think it’s personnel. The numbers seem to support the former. Like i said, you’re entitled to your opinion. Not really getting anywhere here.
Yeah we’ll just have to agree to disagree. But by overachieving you mean average/below average rather than horrible? All I can do is laugh.
And Syracuse would drool at the mouth to have our offensive efficiency instead of that anemic offense that continually parade out season after season
Back to the OG point.
I just look at that 2016 class full of 6’5’- 6’7’’ guard/wings from the Midwest and smh thinking we might fill those spots with short guards in a weaker 2015 class is kind of sad.
Currently we have two scholarships, one bigman and the first guard/ wing willing to commit.
BUT can anyone say they would want to lose Nik and MAYBE Caris next year and replace them with 6’3’’ guys? Jalen Coleman and Kennard seem to have the skillsets to replicate what those two bring but I’m not so convinced with Brunson or Davis (unless we transition him into a PG).
Probably a moot point since I think JB won’t let multiple of Brunson, Davis, Coleman commit.
Caris is going nowhere, he has A LOT to work on before he can even contemplate declaring for the NBA, don’t think he can bridge that gap in 1 year. I think he stays 4 years.
In principle though, I do agree with you, I always want a 6’6 guy that can shoot, handle the ball, and has athleticism vs a 6’2 guy if possible.
A few thoughts in response to comments in this thread:
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Stu was a very good on-ball defender by his senior year. Very good. Way better than Caris is now. Caris’ has the tools (length, quickness, athleticism) to be a really good defender, but he loses concentration a lot. I also don’t think his instincts on defense are very good (how many times, for example, did Hancock shoot a three right in his face and make it when Caris probably thought he had covered him close enough to throw the shot off?).
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That said, with all of these guys (Caris, Nik, Glenn), they are sophomores. Stu and Novak didn’t become good defenders until much later in their careers. If all of them stayed four years (they won’t, of course), I think each would be pretty effective by his senior year if not sooner.
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What we do, defensively, has evolved a lot. First we ran the 1-3-1. Then we played man, but it was premised on position defense and taking charges (see Morgan and Novak, primarily). In 2011, we added Stu as a really good on-ball defender to that mix. That was a pretty good defensive team. Last year, we turned into (1) a great offensive team, that (2) treated defense as merely a way to get stops, and not turnovers. That seems to be what we’re doing again this year - we mainly focus on not fouling, and getting the ball back, as opposed to really pressuring the other team and playing tough, physical defense to create turnovers.
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As I see it, most coaches are either offensive or defensive coaches. Few are both. A team like UNC is an offensive team that, occasionally, will have a great shotblocker or super fast PG who gets steals. A team like MSU is a great defensive team that struggles on offense with things like turnovers much of the time. Duke, for the most part, is also an offensive team every year. Our formula seems to be: (1) have a great offense; (2) limit turnovers; and (3) don’t foul on the defensive end. Would I like to see us play more aggressively on defense? For sure. Kansas, for example, almost ran us out of the gym in the tourney before we put together that great comeback.
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So, when we evaluate the individual merits of our players on defense, the approach factors into that, too. I think some of our guys would be much better defenders if we taught defense the way other teams do. I also think that if we dedicated ourselves to the 1-3-1 right now, or the 2-3, we would have the personnel to be great with it. But it’s tough to use it once or twice a game and run it really effectively.
What’s with the idea that our defense is horrible? For a team with an elite offensive coach and an elite offensive team Michigan’s defensive isn’t that bad.
Michigan is #3 in AdjO and #47 in AdjD. Michigan just the #5 offensive team in the country (in both PPG and AdjO) to 18 points below their season average.
If Michigan had better steals/blocks numbers (the stats that go into Drtg, you would see a similar increase in fouls. With Walton out, Michigan basically had two guys available off the bench last night vs #10 Iowa… do you really want to mess around with foul trouble? I sure don’t. Michigan is regularly one of the least fouling teams in the county. In fact, no team fouled less than Michigan in 2012-2013 and no team is fouling less than Michigan in 2013-2014. The tradeoff is decreased Steals/Blocks numbers. I’m okay with that.
The defense is not necessarily horrible (I use that as an exaggeration), but it certainly isn’t a strength of our team. But you cite us being #47 in AdjD. as if that is good. To put that in context, Wisconsin is #54, and they actually are horrible defensively. Another thing, you reference having an elite offensive team as if to justify the subpar defense - why? Why can’t we be elite on both ends of the court? Why can’t we have steals/blocks without fouling? OSU, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Florida are all among the top 15 in team fouls per game, and they generate turnovers at a much higher rate than we do. That is not a legit argument in my view.
OSU, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Florida aren’t elite on both ends of the court.
Who said anything about the aforementioned teams being elite on both ends of the court - I simply inquired as to why WE can’t be elite on both ends of the court? Secondly, the argument was restricted to Hail’s assertion that not fouling has a correlation to forced TO rate, which is obviously not true. Furthermore, you, of the “I don’t care about what other teams do, I only care about Michigan” mold shouldn’t care about where other teams stand.
Last, if you’re going to make a claim that OSU, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Florida aren’t elite on both ends of the court, at least be correct about it. Syracuse is currently #12 in AdjD & #10 in AdjO, while Pittsburgh is #6 in AdjO & #17 in AdjD. According to you, most people that follow basketball closely are stat nerds, and metrics such as these quantify performance per your Caris argument, so I’ll accept your concession that you are wrong upfront.
Let’s see where Syracuse and Pittsburgh’s AdjO and AdjD ends up. I bet that a asymmetrical team goes farther than either of those teams.