Maybe I really will see you at the top then. It’s an odd year but I was leaning unc.
Give me
Unc
Washington
Florida
Louisville (possible edit here)
Kansas is interesting but what are the odds a suspension occurs? Scaring me away in the pool kind of. Plus I got a couple big 12 sleepers lurking.
I’m with you that if JB had stayed and Jalen Wilson was here, then Michigan would be a popular final 4 sleeper pick and arguably would have more than Virginia coming back. I’m curious why you think Michigan returns more than Virginia?
Key, Clark, Diakite seems pretty similar to Simpson, Livers, Teske. Jay Huff seems like a better breakout candidate than Brooks or Johns. Their hall of fame coach didn’t leave them for the Cavs. They also have two top 100 recruits incoming that are ranked ahead of Bajema. With Franz out, it’s hard for me to see why you’d take Michigan’s returning haul over UVA’s.
Also finishing behind UNC, Duke and Louisville (two preseason top 5 teams and #9) doesn’t mean they can’t make a run in the tourney. I don’t think Virginia will be a 1-seed, but I like their chances more in a winner take all elimination format.
I don’t think Michigan returns more, because the coaching continuity is huge.
But, assuming JB was back, I would like our returning core group (Teske, Simpson, Livers) better than the guys they return. They do not have a returning player who averaged more than 7.4 points a game (Diakite), Key shot .433 from the floor, and Clark shot .350 (and averaged only 4.5 points per game in 26.8 minutes per night). Moreover, again assuming JB returned, I’d like Wilson and Wagner (essentially two five stars) more than their incoming guys. I do like Huff. But probably the biggest reason I’d like us much better is we return a three year starting PG who is an elite passer and defender (IMO), and has tremendous leadership qualities.
I just think it’s kinda crazy when championship teams lose elite talent, replace those guys with guys who don’t seem as good (just my opinion - maybe they will be), and get ranked really high anyway.
It reminds me of UNC in 2010 and UK in 2013 - neither team even made the tourney. I do think Virginia is exceptionally well coached, but I feel like their ceiling is maybe 24 wins and a Sweet Sixteen. We’ll see.
And I feel even stronger that way about Texas Tech.
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You keep making assumptions that aren’t true though. It kind of makes it impossible to discuss. How a Michigan team would be ranked with Beilein and Jalen Wilson couldn’t be any less important.
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Yup I am selling Texas Tech and Virginia stock this year.
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I think my point is pretty straightforward.
After the season ended last year, most people thought we would take a step back this year after losing Iggy, Poole and Mathews, even with Wilson in the fold and at least a decent shot at landing Franz. That’s true even though we had an excellent coach.
Thus, I’m surprised Virginia is getting so much preseason hype because I feel like they are losing more than we did.
In other words - if 2019/2020 Michigan with Beilein (and Wilson/Wagner) was a top 15-20 team (as most people seemed to think, if not worse), I struggle to see how Texas Tech and Virginia are getting any real mentions as Final Four contenders.
“How a Michigan team would be ranked with Beilein and Jalen Wilson couldn’t be any less important.”
That’s a bit dismissive. We argue all kinds of silly stuff here, and–obviously–have pretty different takeaways about what’s important or interesting or not. I find it of interest to think about how Michigan might be ranked with Beilein, and UVA’s personnel losses a good basis of comparison. Some coaches and schools do seem to get an annual pass from the press, while others–to my mind–are undervalued. My personal hunch is that Beilein would be getting misunderestimated, as usual, once again.
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Could that be because Virginia was a significantly better team last season?
Another thing I disagree with in this thread is that if a team is a top 15-20 team then they aren’t a viable Final Four pick.
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Here’s another good example: Villanova. They were vastly overrated coming into last season, and like Virginia, had lost all of their stars from their championship team.
There’s no doubt Virginia was better than us last year. At the same time, I like our returning players more than theirs, and if we had the same coach, I would definitely bet on us finishing higher than them.
And Nova’s bad year resulted in two more banners. Is your point just that teams that won the national championship are usually a little overvalued?
Virginia is ranked around 10th nationally, I don’t think that’s all that crazy. Do you expect any sort of fall off? I would be shocked if they aren’t contending in the ACC. Maybe they end up 20th? Would that mean everyone was wrong?
I think his point is that its not germane to the current discussion, which is about which current teams are final 4 candidates. Things go off the rails when you get into hypotheticals about what our team might have been.
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Is the point here that Villanova was actually good and that their “down year” was not really a down year? Or is it just a discussion of the points you would have gotten in the “season-long pool” thing from selecting them?
Because it was definitely a significant down year. They just won two banners because the Big East imploded on the same level as they did, and there wasn’t a single top 25 team to out-perform them.
I’m just pointing out that programs with great coaches that win consistently tend to have pretty good years even in a ‘down year’. That usually justifies ranking them in the 10-20 range, even if there are significant questions that they have to answer.
If Maryland is the No. 7 team in the country, then I don’t have any problem with Virginia as a top 15 team in the preseason.
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Yeah, I think that’s a fair point in general. Good coaches known for development tend to develop guys in ways that aren’t necessarily easily predictable. I would not say 2019 Nova was a good example of that though. It’s tough to determine when those drops happen, so I think it’s fine to use “good coaches will generate good teams” as a rule. No one predicted the year Kentucky when missed the tournament either, and it’s only happened once.
Ha! BTW, no Virginia picks for me in Season Long Pool. I would not pick them to win the ACC this year, I love UNC.
I was just defending the idea that I don’t think it is insane to pick them to make the Final Four after someone else predicted that.
I look at Final Four picks like this: 1) Does the team have a coach who can win four games in a row in March? 2) Does the team have a top 15ish baseline 3) Is there something that could happen to make them reach the next level.
I think of Final Four picks as something very different than “these are the four best teams in the country” FWIW.
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So am I. Solid but not great imo.
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I love UNC for the whole thing this year. They’re going to be scary good. Hope we get a close look in the Bahamas…