I like this type of speculation. To me, the list of things needed to contend for the Big Ten Title and late NCAA run are in order…
1 - Livers returns
2 - Smith is at least an average B10 point guard AND healthy all season
3 - Wagner makes a big leap
4 - Dickinson is the most college-ready center at Michigan since Juwan…or at least McGary. (I guess Johns/Davis hitting their ceilings applies here too.)
5 - Eastern is eligible and a willing role player
If Livers comes back, I think Brown is a luxury and doesn’t necessarily raise the ceiling this year…but he is a HUGE benefit the following year. If Livers leaves, I think Brown getting a waiver jumps to the top of the list. I’m not a huge Eastern fan, but as a lock-down defender and additional ball-handler he’d be valuable this year.
Everything else (Zeb/Williams contributing, Nunez learning how to shoot, Brooks taking another step) is nice but not critical.
I like your list, but I wonder if Wagner making a big jump shouldn’t be #1? Livers returning would be big, but he still seems like a complementary player on a contender. Wagner is the one guy I could best see carrying the offense to another level.
If Wagner takes a big leap and Livers returns, does Eastern become more important? He could be a key component as long as the offense doesn’t get bogged down.
Here was my logic on that. Wagner was already good last year and even better late in the year. I took it for granted that he will at worst get incrementally better next season. Maybe he’s not the future NBA star we hope for, but at worst he’s going to be a slightly more consistent version of what we saw.
Since I took that for granted, the extra upside of a Stauskas-like blowup wasn’t as critical. Also, I think without a PG to run the offense (or a true ball-handler period) I think it negatively affects Wagner and overall balance. Also, Livers leaving for the NBA means that he’s replaced by Johns or maybe Brown. Whereas Wagner not making the leap means he’s replaced by Wagner of last year.
I will never understand why “support from their original school” has ANY bearing on whether a waiver is granted. Why should these things be subject to arbitrary whims of a former program? There are bound to be many petulant programs out there ala Ole Miss. Why should their opinion have any relevance on that matter?
Well the whole waiver process is pretty flawed. Hence the in progress legislation.
Waivers can be approved for a multitude of reasons, many that don’t require the support of the original school. The original school supporting the waiver provides another path, though.
The Patterson appeal hit a snag because Ole Miss wasn’t cooperating at one point. Michigan had to remove some negative mentions in the filing then Ole Miss agreed or something ridiculous. Meanwhile, the osu QB was approved in two weeks.
No. 20 - Nojel Eastern (Michigan) - A productive, albeit limited player, at Purdue. Eastern has the chance to be an elite defender, and then is also someone who can handle the ball and make plays. Look for Eastern to play all over the court for Juwan Howard .
No. 24 - Cole Bajema (Washington) - Only played one season at Michigan before deciding to transfer. He has a very good shooting stroke and a high skill level with good size. A year in the weight room to get stronger should do wonders for his development.
No. 26 - Chaundee Brown (Michigan) - Had a productive year for Wake Forest and is a former top 100 recruit. Size, skill and some solid athleticism on the wing define his game.
From Brian Snow. Most interesting to me is that he has Bajema ranked in top 30 non-grad transfers, placing him above DeJulius and Castleton.
He’s clearly balancing potential in there somehow … but he has Alan Griffin 4th. I know he was super efficient last year but he played no defense and consistently seemed to get benched on a team that desperately needed his shooting.
I agree with you for sure. If I had to guess, they are giving Bajema a bigger bump because he has 3 years of eligibility left. His impact will be longer than most of the 1-year guys on the list. I still don’t agree…but that’s my explanation.
Regarding the ranking of Griffin, perhaps, in addition to potential and the more obvious factors, he’s adding position of need into the mix here. (Elijah Hughes was a tremendous player for Syracuse last year and has NBA written all over him. Griffin clearly won’t match the production of Hughes on either end of the floor, but the Orange have a lot to replace there.)
That might also explain why he has Robbins as high as #2.
If a waiver is granted, Robbins fills a major hole in the frontcourt for the Gophers.
Those lists aren’t gonna write themselves, boys. Somebody’s just gotta go do it and get it out there.
(At which point you hope the editors commissioning all that content realize that those lists aren’t gonna defend themselves, but then again they get clicked on…)
The panelists are pretty high on their expectations for Michigan next year. Consensus that if Livers returns and Brown is eligible and adjusts well to the Big Ten, Michigan should compete for the Big Ten title.