Bracketology / Bubble Watch Thread (2016-17)


#241

It wasn’t taken out of context at all. You made a statement that you consider the tournament to involve less teams than the tournament actually involves–something which, we’re all sure, given your posting history, has everything to do with wanting to claim that Beilein shouldn’t be credited with making the tournament last year because we were in a First Four game–and you got rightly called on it.


#243

What did I take out of context? Personally, I feel it’s more condescending to cherry pick which games make up the “real” tournament and deem other games to be essentially meaningless.


#244

God I hope we avoid that 8 , 9 seed. I’d much rAther be an 11 or 10. How nice would it be to be a ten and draw a st Mary’s? God is love that matchup for us.

Sucks we have to worry about this. This team let 5-6 games get away. We are so much better then our record indicates. Imagine if we were 25 or 26 in 5? We’d be a two or three seed. We were very close to this. Minny, Wis, nw, v tech,Iowa. We should have won all of those. Literally, now we have to get lucky in our draw or travel a very hard rd to show how good we are. I can’t get over it fans.


#245

Agree 100%. So many games we literally SHOULD have won. If we played Ohio state, va tech, Iowa again once Walton amped things up, I’m betting money we win all three


#246

The VaTech game is the one that really stands out to me; had the huge lead at home and just didn’t execute.

IMO, UM/VaTech is one of the half-dozen games that could have really changed the perception of the conference’s strength. Along with MSU’s season-opening loss to Arizona (2pt game Sparty had every chance to win).


#247

Not that it really impacts Michigan’s position inside the bracket, but with RPI 94 (Auburn), 96 (Georgetown), 100 (Ark St), 103 (Lehigh), 105 (GaTech), 106 (Texas Tech) all losing today ----- better chance that Furman (RPI 102) re-enters the Top100 or that Nebraska (RPI 95) stays inside the Top100 despite its loss to Penn St today (RPI 99).

Just for those committee members who seed based on record vs the Top100?


#248

Furman is at 100, Nebraska dropped out.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2017/schedule/Michigan


#249

So that movement was net -1 for RPI top 100 wins then.


#250

We are up to 37 RPI. We are going to get better than an 8 seed, IMO.


#251

I’m with you. I have a feeling we’re a 7 no matter what now. A win today definitely cements that. Then it becomes can we sneak into a 6 by winning Sunday.


#252

I have no idea if it is a reliable site but “the big lead bracket” was the first site that came up in a google search just now and They had Michigan as a 6 seed in the West and the crazy thing is I would rather take the 8 or 9 seed in the west. Good to see that Michigan is placed as a 6 by at least one organization, though.


#253

It wouldn’t really SURPRISE me to see that. Advanced metrics would basically call them a six seed (Kenpom, etc). So if they win today and lose tomorrow is definitely possible.


#254

I’m of the optimistic hope that while RPI is a factor, it is being balanced out more each year, and with that my guess would be:

Lose today - low 7/high 8 pending matchups/travel/others performance
Win today + lose tomorrow - low 6/high 7
Win tomorrow - 6… and i pause before thinking this, but would a low 5 seed be completely crazy? Its an RPI of 26 (RPIforecaster), Kenpom and BPI would be in the 15-20 range, last 12 games would be 10-2, won conf tourney, etc. i hope this debate becomes material. gotta get through richard on tired legs first.


#255

So theoretically, if we play up to a 6 or 7 seed…who are the likely teams we could see?

Sounds like UNC might fall to the 2 seed in the Midwest. Louisville, West Virginia could be some 3 seeds.


#256

I think as important as the seeding is, it’s just as important to get in a Friday/Sunday pod vs. a Thursday/Saturday pod. That extra day could be huge after playing 4 games in 4 days. We need that extra day of rest.


#257

Extra day of rest and extra day of JB prep. The man is a machine, and his scouting/game-planning is a real asset when playing against unfamiliar teams.


#258

Anybody have any data on if big ten teams playing on Sunday usually play Friday? I would assume they usually do but obviously it’s not mandatory. I know we did in 2014.


#259

Agree completely with the Friday/Sunday games being more important than any 6/7/8 seeds. Watching the acc and pac 12 finals, I’d much rather play on Friday and play that pac 12 winner in the second round than play thrusday and play the acc winner (or even the acc runner up).


#260

I would be up for another shot at nd.


#261

From @OrionSang front page Bracket Watch article: “Most recent bracket projections have Michigan pushing toward a potential 6 seed, but the fact that the Big Ten Tournament championship will finish minutes before the Selection Show (which producers assure us will feature the actual brackets sooner than later) means that it might be too late.”

I would hope the committee’s incompetence doesn’t extend this far, but it is entirely possible. I dont see how we wouldn’t be a 6 seed, if we win today. The most impressive stat to our resume, at that point, might be the 6-0 neutral site record, with wins against SMU, Marquette, Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Add in one elite team (if you dont count SMU), and that looks like a pretty daunting NCAA stretch, hypothetically.