This is an amazing column. A UM hoops fan could not ask for more in/approaching March.
Reading that makes me fine with losing to OSU on Sunday. I REALLY don’t want the 5 seed in the NCAA Tourney.
I was looking at bracket matrix and a lot of the “most accurate” brackets have us as a 7 seed. Not sure how credible that is, but I definitely think if we finish 1-2 and lose the opener we’re looking at a 9 seed and 10 at worst. I think if we’re able to finish 2-1 and we lose the opener we’re more so a 7 seed.
Which ones are you referring to? When I did that I had the exact opposite conclusion. Seemed like the people with 7 were not even ranked at all. Now after the Wisconsin loss we may have more people on the 7 train. But Bracketville (#1 on the Matrix) has us as a 5 as of this morning.
Interesting that your middle two scenarios, both of which are 2-2, have up to a two seed differential, with the lose BTT opener scenario as higher.
I might be more inclined to agree with this if your scenario 3 included a loss in the next BTT game. As it stands, I think it ignores that upside that would come from another win (or two or three) after that opening game.
If we finish 1-2, then make a run in the BTT, we’ll be better off than going 2-2 with a first round bounce in the BTT.
The biggest reason why I think that way is the value of a road win, and a great one at that. If they go win @OSU or @Maryland, that holds a lot of weight IMO.
Truthfully, I see either road win holding more value than what was taken away from the Wisconsin home loss. Whatever hypothetical seed they were in before last night, I see the road win making up for that loss and even helping a little bit.
That’s why I felt 2-2 with a road win/neutral loss holds more value than 2-2 with road losses/neutral win.
I just honestly don’t see a huge variance in seed if they win one of these road games and lose the opener versus lose the road games and win two in the BTT. Probably would be a seed higher in that situation, or could even be the same seed.
I checked yesterday so maybe they weren’t up to date. But I do recall bracketville having us as a five seed. I think the # 2 and #3 had us as 7’s though.
VERY likely an 8 or 9 with a loss to OSU? That seems silly. Maryland isn’t infallible. They can be had as evidenced by the fact they’ve fallen behind by a large deficit to numerous Big Ten teams and their efficiency numbers aren’t great. Even if Michigan loses to OSU, it’s not out of the question that they can beat Maryland and in which case, 8 or 9 seed would be extremely UNLIKELY. Also, lose both games but pick up a couple BTT wins and I think they avoid the 8/9 line too.
Perhaps I didn’t make this clear enough in the projections table – I’m only considering Michigan’s remaining 3 regular season games. If they were to go 2-1, I think they’ll be a 5 seed heading into the BTT. If they finish 1-2, I think they’ll be a 7 seed heading into the BTT.
I’m not sure who we’ll play in the first round of the tournament, so it’s hard to project how that game (or subsequent games) will affect our seed. Also, the committee tends not to give as much credit for conference tourney wins because by that point, their bracket is mostly complete and they don’t like to move teams around unless they absolutely have to.
I think that is a bit of confusion since I moved the thread over from somewhere else @tony. I think he is referring to someone else’s table not the table in the post.
That’s my bad!
I should know better than to wade too deep into the comments! But thanks for clarifying
Usually should be some good discussion here! This was just my fault in moderating poorly.
@tony Yes, that’s exactly it. I almost replied in the other thread to suggest moving the one I replied to, and noticed how hard it is to cleanly carve out one strain of discussion into another and decided not to bother. I guess I should use the quote function more often!
While this is traditionally true, my prediction is that it will have an outsized impact this year as the committee tries to figure out how to sort that huge bunch in the middle of the conference standings while also keeping teams spaced far enough apart that you don’t have second round matchups, etc.
The Matrix is updated through yesterday and has U-M as the top 6 seed.
Great stuff! Really interesting.
A lot of places have us as the last 6 seed, which would possibly put us in Greensboro vs. Duke…
As a Greensboro all sessions ticket holder, I endorse this message.