Bracket Watch: February 12th, 2019

Looks like the NW and PSU home wins are about to fall out of Q2 (and NW away win is about to fall out of Q1)

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And if Michigan wins tonight it will probably end up a Q2 not Q1 win.

Yep. When PSU choked away that game against Purdue (with the help of the refs) it kept the Boilers squarely in the Big Ten hunt and pretty much guaranteed that victories over PSU would drop a tier.

Northwestern choking away that Iowa game also will probably drop Michigan’s wins to Q2 (A) and Q3 (H).

Most revealing part of the committee selection is that Michigan basically has no chance to be a 1 seed, despite having an obvious 1 seed resume. The lessen here is that you need to try your hardest to play to the whistle and blow out teams as much as possible.

What is the argument that Michigan doesn’t have a chance to be a one seed?

Michigan has a significantly better resume than both Kentucky and Gonzaga while having similar/better overall records, but Michigan is lower seeded based simply on the pure NET ranking. So, the only way Michigan is going to be able get up to a 1 seed is to jump Gonzaga in NET or get very very close, which is not feasibly possible.

Maybe if Michigan goes 9-1 I could see us jumping Gonzaga, but it’s clear the committee is just using a different method to seed this year.

Edit: I would say barring a major meltdown from a team… Duke and UVA are locked 1 seeds. Gonzaga is a locked 1 seed and one of Tennessee/UK is a locked 1 seed.

If Michigan keeps winning (enough to be in the conversation for a 1 seed) then its resume should improve by a lot more than Gonzaga’s I think. Seems like you have to wait and see how it all plays out.


I just don’t think this is true. If U of M goes 31-3 with another B14 tourney title and just a road loss to MSU the rest of the way, IMO they’d certainly get a #1.

Not trying to be critical by disputing another of your points…just making conversation, but I think it’s too early to say UVA is locked as a #1. Another loss or two, a fairly early exit in the ACC tournament and they wouldn’t be a sure thing for a #1. I agree that UK/Tenn will get a #1, and I think Duke or UVA will get a #1. Gonzaga will be interesting with a weaker resume but gaudy record and the Duke win.

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I’d agree. But that’s not really much of a reasonable scenario in my mind.

I just read the NCAA’s explanation for the bracketing of the two seeds:

“Michigan was assigned, initially, to the closest available site, which is Louisville. That, however, changed later in the bracketing process, thanks to a unique set of circumstances. With four ACC teams in the field of 16, those schools had to go to separate regions. Duke and Virginia were already assigned to the East and Midwest regions, and Louisville is not permitted to play on its home court, meaning the fourth-seeded Cardinals would have to go West and North Carolina had to go to the South. That movement led Michigan going to the East region, while Michigan State was assigned to the West.”

This exercise was just practice, but that explanation doesn’t really indicate why Michigan and MSU would not be flipped. I guarantee Michigan would prefer to avoid the #1 overall seed (as the #6 themselves), even if it meant travelling west to play the #4 overall seed (Gonzaga in this case).

So if we end up 27-4 as Torvik projects, we would be 8-4 Q1 and 8-0 Q2. UT could be 8-4, 8-0 as well according to Torvik, and UK at 10-4, 3-2. Seems like it would be a close call

There’s also “lazy” bracketing to consider. With the BTT championship game Sunday afternoon again, suppose it featured Michigan and MSU. If U of M was a borderline #1, but MSU wasn’t, I could see the committee just slotting them both #2 so they wouldn’t have to worry about shuffling the bracket. Seems unfair and lousy, but I swear they’ve done similar things in the past.

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What number are they using to add up the 4 teams in each region? NET ranking?

What’s Gonzaga’s projection for Q1 and Q2?

5-2 and 5-0. They’re also dominating their conference on a level never seen before. I believe their Efficiency Margin is +.45 or so in conference

That league is absolutely terrible. Normally at least St. Mary’s is pretty good to create some resistance, but they aren’t even good this year. Zags will go 3 months without playing a team with a pulse.

St. Mary’s and San Francisco are solid. Top 50 Kenpom. Not saying it’s a great conference but the way they are beating the conference is unprecedented even by Gonzaga’s standards. I’m fine if they get a 1 seed over us depending on our finish.

It’s just funny how much Michigan’s early wins over UNC, Nova and Purdue are being discounted nationally while Gonzaga is getting a TON of mileage out of a win over Duke in that group of freshmen’s 6th ever college game.

I think Gonzaga is really good, but from a resume standpoint, Gonzaga may end the season with only two wins over tournament teams (Duke and Washington).