Big Ten Roster Movement (Summer 2016)


#481

Does that mean you think the roster makeup is Big Ten Championship caliber? Nice to hear :slight_smile:


#482

Testament to how much talent was on that team. . . he said grudgingly. I’m not down on too many coaches but I dislike Crean.


#483

2016-2017 Big Ten Basketball Conference is setting up to have the least amount talented players in 2 decades. So yeah, I expect Michigan’s current roster to compete for a championship.


#484

If Blackman leaves, Michigan and Michigan state should be at the top with Wisconsin I’d like to think.


#485

People will believe what they want DRatings of IU players per 100 possessions ignoring walkons and guys that don’t get much PT

Anunoby 97.1
Bielfeldt 98.1
Williams 98.4
Morgan 99.5
Bryant 100.3
Blackmon 100.6

Blackmon had a better D rating than Hartman, Zeisloft, Ferrell(awful at 105.5) and Johnson. So at the end of the day Blackmon was probably middle of the pack. People will believe the narratives that they want though.


#486

But Blackmon going down allowed Anunoby to get more run. Thereby improving the defense. No?


#487

Get more run? He averaged 13 mpg and didn’t start a single game all year. Johnson, Zeisloft and Hartman all started games after the injury and all 3 were worse defenders than Blackmon. Like I said people will believe what they want.


#488

But Blackmon’s rating comes strictly from non-conference games, where the quality of competition was, in many/most games, well below that of competition faced after Blackmon went down. Are those rating adjusted for competition level or not? I can say this–from watching IU live against the better teams they faced in the pre-season (Duke, ND, Wake Forest, UNLV, etc.), Blackmon is truly a bad defender from an anecdotal standpoint.


#489

No they’re not adjusted for conference play. Here’s the problem with making a correlation though we all know that there’s better competition in the B1G. So Blackmon had a neutral D rating as far as 100 possessions go people believe he’s a bad defender. How does a bad defender end up with a neutral rating and they did face elite offenses like Duke/ND? By the same token wouldn’t it be easier just to point to Indiana having the easiest conference schedule? It just seems lazy to say Blackmon was the reason they were awful on D and they won the B1G conference because he got hurt all the while there were a few worse defensive players. Next thing you know people will say Ferrell was a great lockdown defender. Did better completion in the conference expose guys like Ferrell, Johnson, Zeisloft and Hartman? IU was ranked 73 in DRating still hardly a lock down team though. I think having the easiest conference schedule, a great PG, a very good big in Bryant and lanky athletic 6’7 guy in Williams contributed more to this than Blackmon being hurt.


#490

Before Blackmon was injured OG was averaging 8.33 minutes per game (largely inflated by a lot of run in 3 blowouts) and then after the injury averaged 16.63. Seems like more to me but my math skills aren’t a strong suit.


#491

Two decades? That’s a tough call.

Either way, it shows we’re not getting creamed in recruiting by our contemporaries, right? And it also shows teams in the Big Ten are not the type to just “reload” with a bunch of one and done guys every year. Good lessons for those who think we should be routinely hauling in five star guys every year.


#492

Without weighing in on DRtg or IU/Blackmon, I will agree with ASF that sometimes losing a player is more coincidental to a team’s improvement than a cause, or at least not a reflection of that player’s value. For instance, in '13-14, UM lost McGary after starting out 6-4, including a somewhat perplexing loss to Charlotte. Then they went 22-4 and thrashed the B1G. You can come up with ideas for why McGary’s absence helped, like maybe it thrust Nik and Caris into bigger roles, or maybe it forced Michigan to play smaller, which was actually better (they’d been starting Mitch and Morgan, I think), but I’m not sure the improvement reflects on McGary’s value as a player. Indeed, you could argue the contrary, that UM wins the national championship that year if McGary stays healthy.


#493

This thread is veering way off topic, but I think just about everyone that covered Indiana would agree that Blackmon was a poor defender and IU’s defense improved after his injury. Not to say he wouldn’t be an important part of their team next year.


#494

Well only 2 players have entered the draft early and signed with an agent(Davis/Stone). There are many more that have just been testing the waters. Far too early to make any prediction.


#495

Again, for the record: You think Beilein has constructed his 2016/2017 roster well enough to compete with how other coaches have constructed their 2016/2017 rosters at the top of the conference? I’m pleasantly surprised. I would’ve taken you for insisting our roster pales in comparison because of poor recruiting.


#496

I think what he’s trying to say is that on paper they’re going to be starting seniors and juniors. It hasn’t exactly competed as well as people have envisioned the past couple years. It’s all relative based upon how coaches view their roster these are all guys Beilein has valued it’s up to him to get the most out of this roster. It doesn’t matchup well with a Wisconsin or MSU for instance and if Purdue gets Swanigan/Edwards back we have already seen that matchup. Heck we even saw Michigan get badly outplayed by OSU this past year and those players who did large damage are all returning. I don’t think anybody would pick this Michigan team for a top 2-3 finish but the expectation should be with a majority of seniors and juniors for that to be the case.


#497

If Michigan is so outmatched, then this sentence is odd:

“There is absolutely no reason Michigan shouldn’t be playing for a league championship in early March.”

So I’m going to assume everything you just said is not what he meant.


#498

Well if Michigan has the most experience out of any team why shouldn’t that be the case?


#499

If Michigan is as outmatched as you say we are by as many teams as you say we are, then those are reasons we probably won’t be competing for a Big Ten title.

“There is absolutely no reason Michigan shouldn’t be playing for a league championship in early March.”

You are providing reasons.


#500

Like with anything you can gather reasons that support either position. Some just have more merit than others. Do you value experience over actual recent results?