I do think that Purdue will have a decent team this year, but I think they’ll be COMPLETELY different from last year’s team. Losing Edwards, Cline, and Eifert is substantial because they accounted for 75% of the team’s 3-point shots and makes. That’s saying a lot because Purdue was at the 90th percentile in 3-point rate. They looooved the 3. But this year’s team? Not a lot of shooters. To be sure, not a lot of proven shooters. They’ll have to create an identity built on making games as ugly as possible.
There’s also something else to consider. Purdue lost assistant coach Greg Gary, who served under Painter for almost a decade. Ask any Purdue basketball fan and he’ll tell you that this is a major loss. He was the mastermind behind their offense. Gary was pretty much Painter’s version of Beilein’s Yaklich, except on the other side of the court.
As far as Painter goes, by no means am I saying that he’s a bad coach or just an average coach, but look (see: picture below) at the 6 seasons prior to Carsen Edwards’ arrival. In those 6 seasons, his team finished better than 3rd only once (2010-11) and 6th or worse three times. In those 6 seasons, Purdue never made it past the second round. Heck, in Painter’s 14 seasons at Purdue, they’ve made it past the Sweet 16 only once. Prior to the 2016-17 season, Purdue fans were NOT at all happy with Painter.
If I’m ranking Purdue, it’s probably in rung below Maryland and OSU, along with Michigan, Wisconsin, and perhaps Illinois.
Thanks. I didn’t know Purdue was losing a Yaklich kinda assistant, or at least a guy thought to be so important. Sounds relevant. I agree that there’s a third tier, with Michigan in it, and for each of those teams the gap between floor and ceiling is very significant. Hard to predict what those teams will end up being. I do think however that Wisconsin is maybe in your fourth tier. There’s not a lot there at all, it seems. Reuvers is going to take a big step forward, and no doubt Davison will more than willing to take many small steps underneath opposing shooters, but there’s so much to replace there.
Painter obviously had that dip, but I wouldn’t say that his recent success is entirely due to Carsen Edwards. Or Greg Gary.
You are lumping a year into your “down period” where Purdue went 26-9 and 12-6 in the Big Ten. That was a great team. Yes, they were upset in the first round but it was a double overtime game, that’s the nature of the beast.
In the last 6 years, Painter has coached a team that ranked 339th in 3PA/FGA and 32nd in 3PA/FGA and everything in between. He’s coached a team was almost entirely reliant on post-up play and actions that were derived from the post and then turned around and figured out how to build his entire offense without reliable post up play in 2019.
I’m sure Greg Gary is great (he was there since 2011) but the program is bigger than an assistant coach. Painter is elite in my opinion. I would choose him over any coach in the Big Ten.
Izzo obviously has a better track record and career, I just like how adaptable Matt Painter is and I leave his press conferences thinking that he said something really smart or insightful more often than not.
Yeah on pure coaching ability I have to take Painter. Izzo has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to playing the optimal way (forced by injuries), whereas Painter will do whatever maximizes the talent on his team every year. Izzo is the best combination of crootin, player retention and coaching ability (in particular coaching team defense) but with equal teams I’d take Painter to maximize the potential of any randomly constructed team over Izzo.
Great post. I’m totally curious to see if Izzo has changed for that experience, and whether he can in the offseason correctly identify how to best use the talent he has. I think he often seems to do that during the season, a bit late. But it’s certainly true that when things come together for Izzo you really see amazingly tight and cohesive teams.
A side PSA to my fellow B1G tourney-goers: I made my hotel reservations for Indy today and I was surprised by the number of fully booked hotels. Had to go with my fourth choice. Just an FYI if you’re looking to stay close to Banker’s Life.
Purdue has an interesting team. Williams and wheeler are big time to me. If proctor can produce and giving them shooting and creation, I think with haams and eastern they wil be tough
Every team, their band, staff, administration etc has a host hotel completely booked up for the entire weekend just in case they make it that long. As teams start to get eliminated rooms start opening up at the hotels closer to the arena. Normally by the weekend games you can get a room pretty much anywhere you want. They still know what to charge though.
I just can’t put UM below 3. Z has too much dog in him and this team has 3/5th of an elite defense with upper class-men. I think the offense will lag a bit but I always go with the point guard with the biggest bark! Lots of question marks but I think this team is in every game until the last possession. They know how to win ugly and I think the “D” culture carries over from last year. Z plays with a huge chip on his shoulder and nothing will come easy for the opposing PG’s in the B1G.
The narrative last year was that we couldn’t win close games. Although people decided that was Poole’s fault. Personally I think it was chance, but just having a PG like Simpson won’t win you close games.
Loved Beilein and his offense. Really his approach to the game. I wouldn’t trade one for the other, but I will say that the games they coached against each other were some of my favorites to think about and analyze.
I thought he was gonna be a beast out of high school. I agree he hasn’t been very good but if he improves and is just a solid player with wheeler and Williams looking like they could be stars late last year I think they could have a nice season.
