I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team finally take advantage of a Big Ten tournament autobid.
This Iowa/Minnesota game is out of control.
Honestly I would have loved to have Tate in Irvin’s position. Our teams chemistry and flow would be way better. He’s the type of guy this current roster could really use. Glad to see we at least offers him. Tate has a Donnie Tillman type game, although I think Tillman has a better career/ more upside
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slyboogie2 - I appreciate your comment about Jae’Sean.
Curious to hear the board’s views esp those RPI engineers… Aside from winning obviously, is it better to climb to a higher position in the B1G on an absolute basis (eg, clearly being #6) or better to have teams we beat win like Ill/PSU even if it muddles up that middle tier with regards to our bid probability?
RPI is more important to the committee than where you finish in your conference.
It’s better to win games. If Illinois/PSU beat teams like MSU, Minnesota that are on the bubble that could leave more room on the bubble for Michigan. But really the key is to win 4-5 more games.
Don’t think that’s what he was asking.
I think he’s asking is should we cheer for Rutgers when they play Illinois because it might help us in conference standings or does Illinois’ RPI matter to us more.
The answer is that Illinois being a top 50 RPI team helps our resume more than where we finish to Illinois in regards to conference standings.
Perhaps – as a rule though rooting for the team that you play twice probably helps your resume more than anything else.
If neither team has a shot at RPI top 50, I agree. “Wins vs RPI top 50” holds enough weight for me to hope all of our wins that have a reasonable shot to get there can get there.
yeah conference standings doesn’t matter at all to the committee, I believe
Yeah last year OSU was 11-7 and missed the tourney behind Michigan at 10-8. I can buy into the top-50 win thing, but so many moving parts there.
RPI is : 50% Your Winning Percentage, 25% Your Opponents’ Winning Percentage, 25% Opponents’ Opponents’ Winning Percentage.
(This is weighted as well, a home win counts as 0.6 win, a road win counts as 1.4 wins and same deal for the losses)
Teams that you play twice winning games helps that equation overall.
Does the committee actually use a team’s own RPI ranking? It’s always seemed to me like they basically ignored that and lean on “RPI Top X records” to seed.
I certainly defer to everyone who knows more on RPI and how to manage it, but would take from the commentary that maybe 4-3 doesn’t do it anymore then b/c our RPI is brutal right now (while BPI/Kenpom remaining resilient). In short, hard to see how [4-3 is sufficient] and [RPI is critical] reconcile, but it may be due to my lack of appreciation as to how that could change by going 4-3
A useful tool: http://www.rpiforecast.com/wizard/Michigan.html
My most plausible path to 9-9 (home wins, wins over NEB/Rutgers comes out to this:
Basically most paths to 9-9 come out to an RPI right around 50. That would also be 3 more top-100 wins (with some # in the top 50) and 2 road wins, all resume boosters.
very helpful. thanks. had seen that in prior years, but totally forgot it existed. Maybe one last question that I can look into if not easily known top of mind, is how often RPI=49 makes it in.
Maybe last 10 games, eye test, etc start to pay in more at that point.
Can’t really look at it as a hard rule with RPI, but the 50ish range is solid, but not great. Last year Michigan’s RPI was 58 and it was a bit on the low side.
The other evaluation factors would kick in though beyond RPI.
The committee considers things like Kenpom and maybe even BPI. The more computer models outside of RPI they consider the more it helps Michigan, IMO.
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An RPI around 50 is cutting it super close.
SMC and SDSU got left out last year at 38 and 41, respectively. Power 5 teams seem to get more leeway, but Florida got left out at 55. None of those teams had the road-win problems that Michigan currently does.
My principal concern for Michigan is that if you’re looking for a way to make a decision on the final few spots, that road record could stick out big-time.
That’s why it’s so important to beat somebody like Minnesota.
If they win 4 more games they’ll either have: 2 more top-25 wins plus 2 road wins; 1 more top-25 win plus 3 road wins; no more top-25 wins plus 4 road wins.
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