Not sure we will pass OSU or Purdue as we have to play them both on the road. We would have to steal one at their place which is possible, but not super likely.
Would very much like to get a win in Columbus. Three chances to steal a Q1 road win upcoming. Going 1-2 would surely move the team up to a 7 line in the projections. Would be great to be at that point going into the conference tournament.
Who knows what will happen in the final 7 games of the year.
But it kinda stings that we’re two wins against OSU and Illinois from being right in the middle of the B1G title picture. Gotta think we’d be at least 8-5 in conference if Livers was healthy.
7 Likes
The Illinois home loss is the one that sticks with me. Just a couple of free throws away from Ayo’s heroics not even being possible.
7 Likes
I’m not conceding the OSU game at all. Obviously it will be tough to win, but for one, their KenPom rating includes time with Carton (though I suppose it’s possible he’ll come back), and in general, we (a) played like absolute garbage, (b) got no home whistle, and ( c ) in fact, had 30-50% of win probability stolen on one of the more strange and ridiculous calls I’ve frankly ever seen, and still lost by only 3.
That’s a winnable game.
3 Likes
Oregon, OSU, Illinois really sting, and in my opinion so does the flat way we played against PSU at home. I know PSU is a nice team but man Michigan played some bad bad basketball that day. Thats one where having Livers could change it all.
3 Likes
Apparently the win probability stolen was quantified (Brian Cook references it on mgoblog).
47% (from 60% to 13%)
I agree its winnable but until they actually go out and beat a quality team on the road I will have my doubts.
Those two and Oregon just burn. When I see us projected as a 9 seed I just can’t get over them. With even the osu and Illinois Game our resume/ projection would be at least a 7 and climbing. Really bitter.
I want to drive down to the BTT in Indianapolis but a Wednesday matchup (that I definitely wouldn’t make) against a competent team (ie anyone other than Nebraska and NW) would make be have seriously heavy doubts.
My wife and I were originally was planning to take our annual pilgrimage on that Thursday as well, but meh, life is short. We were able to reserve an extra night, and the Wednesday games are general admission and I think are $6. If U-M plays the 11-14 or 12-13 game and then gacks, it still should be a helluva tourney. Besides, Indianapolis is a ball. Now if it were in NYC or Washington DC, uh, no chance.
On the plus side, given the standings and respective W-L’s right now, I can’t reasonably see how U-M would be the 13th or 14th seed and, thus, would almost be guaranteed to play either Neb. or NW. I won’t ever say it’s guaranteed until it is, but I’d be absolutely shocked if Michigan isn’t playing Thursday.
5 Likes
The way we are playing with Livers, I really can’t see us ending up in one of the Wednesday games.
1 Like
Devonte Green is trying to single-handedly disprove the “hot hand” fallacy. 4 threes in about 3 minutes, with two absurd heat checks.
2 Likes
Was hoping Iowa would hang an 8th conference loss on Indiana. Not looking promising at the moment.
1 Like
There actually are a decent amount of studies that support that the “hot-hand” is not (or at the very least may not be) a fallacy in basketball. Basketball shots aren’t dice rolls!
Of course I assume we win a Wednesday night game but I want no part of one. It really limits your upside in the tourney having to play that many games and the first round would do nothing for the resume.
2 Likes
CJ Fredrick took a really bad fall for Iowa. Looked bad, but hope he is alright.
Iowa’s defense sucks.
I called the heat checks before he shot, but I’m still amazed he made them.
Did Fran McCaffrey go nuts and get a technical with his team down 12?
- Yes
- No
0 voters