Assessing value in the college basketball futures market

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Something different today! Feel free to post any future picks that you guys like.

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Love the picks, Dylan. Couldn’t agree more on Dana Altman’s outfit, completely undervalued.

A few other long shots that appear to have value to me are

Arkansas (#16 on KP, getting hot at the right time, very difficult team to prep for on short rest, senior guard play, and a bunch of hungry transfers.

Rutgers (#26 on KP, battle tested in the nations best league, extremely athletic difficult matchups, don’t want to play them if your fatigued, senior guard play, clear talent, thirst for postseason success)

I know you don’t mention the Bonnie’s out of the A10 on the list but they’re another team that combines experience, lights out 3 point shooting, excellent on the offensive glass, grind it out style tempo that I believe can be successful in March as well.

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I enjoyed that. I honestly can’t believe Michigan is -150 to make the Final Four!

Am I understanding this correctly that, per these odds, we have a better than 50% probability to make the Final Four, and double the probability of making the Final Four than winning the BTT?

I get the latter on a relative basis, just given that the semis and finals of the BTT are likely to have better teams per KenPom than Michigan’s regional given the tournament rules around pairing conference teams in the same bracket, not to mention the motivation issue Dylan referenced, but still kind of crazy to think about.

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For championship love the FSU and Bama picks.

To make the F4 I also like WVU +475, Houston +400, and SDSU +1500, and Arkansas +1400

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Some of these could be especially good values if teams are placed in the region with the 4th #1 seed. I think that region could be wide open.

I agree with a lot of the picks already mentioned - FSU, Bama, Arkansas, WVU, Loyola, Oregon. I don’t love Tennessee, but if they get healthy that could be a good value too

I’ve only made one sports bet in my life - a buddy of mine was having his 50th birthday in Vegas, and I bet on Michigan to beat Iowa and the over in the game last year when Luka put up 44 points but Michigan won (won both bets).

Sports betting isn’t yet legal in Massachusetts, but the irony is that I’m friends with the Draft Kings founder and CEO, who also resides here (we play in a weekly poker game - I’m the old guy, and he was until recently, the young guy). The game’s been going on for more than 20 years.

Fun to see this partnership…gonna have to read up on everyone’s comments to learn the ins and outs of this stuff!

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Really happy with the +4000 Michigan I got in January when barstool sportsbook did a boost . 25 to win 1000!

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Wow. That’s incredible value.

Yeah I got +1100 before they offered the boost in January.

:eyes: :astonished:

If Michigan wins it all, drinks are on you!

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Funny. I can’t claim to know DraftKing’s CEO, but I’m also out in Boston and have a few friends that work there. Before COVID I played a weekly pickup game in Cambridge with a bunch of DraftKings guys. Apparently they would run two games almost weekly: one for the former jocks and one for the engineers. I of course ran with the nerds.

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I only at a high level understand lines and betting, but I was having a discussion about likely national champs this year and thought that others might have an opinion. Which pool of candidates which you take as the most likely national champs?

  1. Baylor
  2. Gonzaga
  3. The Big Ten
  4. The rest of the field

I used to be able to do polls (cant figure how to do it any more) but curious what other’s thoughts are. Also debated whether Baylor and Gonzaga should be one bucket for the both of them. I think this is the year that the Big Ten wins a national title again. Who ya got?

From that list, I’d def take the Big Ten, though per Torvik, Gonzaga is the best bet among them.

Since you came up with the idea, I’ll point you in the direction of poll building and let you do it!

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Who will win the National Title?
  • Baylor
  • Gonzaga
  • A Big Ten Team
  • Rest of the Field

0 voters

Thanks @MH20!

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Love Alabama and FSU don’t want them in Michigan region. Need to see more of Oregon they were getting better and then got pounded against USC.

For what it’s worth some of the betting sites are offering a bet where you can bet on either Baylor or Gonzaga to win or take the rest of the field. Last I saw the odds were right around 50/50.

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