DARKO thinks Ayo is currently the 53rd best rookie among 88 total who played this year. There’s not really evidence yet that he’s some real find.
IMO Davis was better than soph year Ayo from a draft projection perspective? Davis’ stocks are much better at 30+% USG which is pretty impressive. Ayo made his 2s at a much better clip and was a better playmaker for his teammates. If you really hate Davis’ supporting cast, I think you have to like him better than Ayo. But the fact that we’re having the discussion is maybe not a great sign that Davis is a terrific pick.
Yeah, but Ayo was a mid second round pick who played rotation minutes as a rookie. Right? To me, while he wasn’t necessarily a great player, he far out played his draft slot. I always thought he was unfairly dropped on the boards and I don’t understand why he fell so far while a guy like Ivey is going to go top-5.
And, I mean, I’m a Bulls fan. I watched Ayo a bit this year. The Bulls were extremely light on NBA talent past Ball-DDR-Caruso-Lavine-Vuc and then had some injuries on top of that so they ended up relying on Ayo before he was ready.
I said what I said re: Ayo pretty specifically. The evidence that he’s some find in the 2nd round isn’t really obvious. He made his shots this year but had crazy low USG, a meh AST%, and missed his FTs. Not what you want to see from a 2 guard.
If he turns into a legit rotation player or even a starter I’m not gonna be shocked or something, but he looked like a rookie this year and pretty clearly has a lot of work cut out for him. That doesn’t really do a lot for me, particularly in the context of drafting Johnny Davis?
I really have no strong takes on Ayo I was just genuinely curious about DARKO. I do know he got second team all rookie so anyone claiming he’s actually not even a top 50 rookie is way out there(but not necessarily wrong)
I didn’t think I had strong takes on Ayo either! “Who knows what will happen, but if that’s your Johnny Davis comp that’s not great”. Hardly an indictment for a rookie to be replacement level. I guess some folks thought Ayo was significantly better than that and I don’t agree. Not gonna say I’m the biggest Bulls fan out there. I prob check in on BlogABull monthly?
I’d defer to @mgl if he thinks there’s a lot more there, IIRC he’s a big Bulls fan.
No offense to DARKO, but I would argue that’s garbage. Ayo playing 2000 minutes when only 22 rookies played 1000 is one pretty massive indicator I’m guessing it’s not picking up.
I think Ayo is over-rated, but not top 50? Like am I supposed to take Trendon Watford seriously?
Ayo had a strong run of play in February where he started at PG, dropped like 8 dimes a game and mostly avoided turnovers and played what certainly seemed to be very good defense.
I think he’s a limited offensive player, and last year may be about the most you can expect from him. But like…is Matthise Thybulle better?
I mean, if DARKO was spitting out confidence intervals I’m sure it would say “most of these rookies are about the same and 95% of them are below league average” so I wouldn’t get too hung up in stack ranks. If you want to say he’s more like top third of rookies w your eye test, I’m completely fine w that.
Thybulle had the lowest USG of any qualified player in the NBA this year so I would say Matisse is almost certainly worse. He was, however, first in steal rate while Ayo was middle of the pack. It’s pretty obvious where Thybulle butters his bread. In any case, Ayo having a super low USG as a 2 I can easily imagine is a strong signal that the ML is picking up on.
Yeah, I know a computer algorithm doesn’t have personal feelings about Ayo Donsunmu. And “top third” would be “top 20”, and I think he was like…top 12 or something?
FWIW DARKO has 88 rookies w estimated DPM. I’m mostly just saying if you think he was a perfectly cromulent rotation player, I wouldn’t object. But there were 3 rookies that DARKO thinks were ~average or better in the league and I’d be surprised if that weren’t about right. With obvious caveats, rookies are kind of the definition of replacement level.
Honestly, I think Ayo can slot in as an above average defender who is a totally ok shooter who can get other guys a shot 5-6 times times a game. I think that’s a totally ok reserve guard on totally ok teams.
I don’t think he’s a 39% three point shooter, but I think college showed hes better than a 64% FT shooter.
Weaver might trade up to get Ivey. In theory, they could do #5 and Jerami Grant to the Kings for #4 and cap filler pieces on 1 year deals. I’m not sure if another team could make a better offer among players that are realistically available. Plus, the Kings reportedly really like Murray and then he’d be there at 5 for them.
Thanks for all the insight. I wasn’t necessarily trying to hype up Ayo as some oversight by the NBA, I just always thought he looked the part of NBA player and his draft rankings never matched that.
I spent most of Feb in the hospital and watched a lot of hoops. This, along with the all-rookie selection, must have made me extrapolate that to the entire season.
Bottom line, I think Davis will be a fine NBA player and assume he will go in the 10-20 range regardless.
Chet , Banchero, smith, Mathurin, Ivey, griffin, Ty Ty , sharpe are all intriguing.
Murray and Davis will be solid pros
I like the g league elite kids a lot even if they’re not being hyped ( I see dyson rising though)
I like keels a lot too. Type of guy who ends up being a really nice 3-4 option who wins and isn’t afraid of the moment.
Reminds me of maxey , not in style but in that he doesn’t have any traits that blow you away so he isn’t getting the hype and will fall til 20 or so but then some team picks him and he immediately impacts the game and everyone wonders why he didn’t go higher.
Kid knows how to play. There is more guys but point was made.
