Well, he was not one of the 20 invited to the draft.
FWIW, Nate Duncanās pod started doing draft analysis for this year last week - I think I already mentioned Ivey, they also did Smith, Holmgren, and Banchero recently.
Their take on Smith was that while obviously the jump shot was a major plus, and they thought heād be a solid defender his tendency to be unwilling and sort of unable to get more than contested jumpers (which he knocked down in college), and lack of ability to pass generally was a concern. Of the 4 prospects theyāve done, they had him 4th - they saw a very strong catch and shoot guy who could give solid defenseā¦high floor, low ceiling. Basically - he couldnāt/didnāt ever beat defenders one on one and create shots for himself or others.
On Holmgren, their concern was everyoneās - his build (they pointed out he was similar to (but better than) Bol Bol - noting he had none of the character red flags or injury history). Basically, they thought his offense would be āsolidā, and were most excited about his defense, but the main question was whether he could be an NBA 5, since they donāt think heād be able to switch onto guards from the 4. They had him 2nd on their board, noting that they didnāt love the draft class that much, noting that he could be a ādown year first overallā.
Banchero was their favorite. He was the guy they felt that actually consistently beat his defender, had a multi-faceted offensive game and just great innate vision. A bit concerned about his effort level/will to win, but saw him as a clear #1 of the 4.
Independent of team need, their ranking was Paolo, Chet, Ivey, Smith, but I got the sense they could have others leap Smith as they do them.
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Interesting. Are they doing more prospects after those top four also? Curious who they have next.
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They generally do 8-10 in full (like a 40-45 minute conversation on each), then do guys that interest them for maybe 10 minute quicker hits. For the big ones, they watch a ton of film - I think Nate mentioned he watched every one of Holmgrenās blocked shots.
Like any draft evaluator there are hits and misses. They had Cade and Green as the top prospects last year, which was hardly novel, and still looks ok. They did not particularly like Suggs at all (pretty accurate) but also didnāt really like Barnes (maybe not so good). They were all in on Mobley, all in on Sengun too. They were (incorrectly) down on Wagner.
Hollinger released his top-75 draft prospects today on The Athletic. Caleb at 44 and Moussa nowhere to be found.
He had some interesting positioning though for Big Ten players. He is way down on Johnny Davis ranking him 29th when Iāve mostly seem him as a 10-14 lottery pick on the mocks Iāve followed. Also had Ivey at 3, ahead of Chet.
Chet is going to make a lot of smart people look pretty stupid either way, and I think itās really a coin flip. I think everyone agrees basically on what he is, itās really a question of whether his physical build will play.
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My big concern with Chet is his frame. I donāt think he can pack on a lot of pounds to combat with the 5s. Heās a big 4 but heās not a great athlete so switchability will be limited. Heās my #4 overall prospect.
Iām back and forth between Paolo and JSJ as the #1 overall and I can be persuaded with either prospect. I think Ivey is #3 and his weaknesses have been overblown by those who arenāt fans of Ivey.
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The point they made on Chet - and I think itās a pretty good one - is that he may be perfectly good if not very good regular season defender at his size at the 4. His limitations probably wouldnāt be exposed regularly until the 2nd round of the playoffs. As they said āand for 20 teams, thatās probably fine - not everyone is constructing a playoff contender, most teams are just trying to make the post-season, and he can probably help you do it.ā
Hollingerās rankings are always interesting because he comes at it from a completely different perspective than you normally see. So he always has massive outliers from consensus.
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Iāve been on the Paolo Banchero train since I watched him extensively towards the end of the season into the ACC/NCAA tourney. Heās got more creativity in his game than Smith imo, which is incredibly important as a potential first scoring option. Paoloās face up / perimeter game has some KD in it.
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No need to say imo there, Smith has zero creativity in his game.
Hollinger being way out on Johnny Davis prob not an accident considering Peltonās stat model dislikes Davis too. I would definitely rather have Davisā soph year than Murrayās frosh year and those are their same age years? But maybe thatās what you get when you properly weight stocks? I dk.
This is a good example of where not having built my own models or having seen anybody do a long āunder the hoodā type piece on them means having pretty meh intuitions for whatās going on here.
Very fascinating top of the draft to me. Not sure I remember such little consensus on the order of the top 3.
We really got boned with the fifth pick. Only saving grace is Kangz being Kangz and picking Murray.
the comps I see getting thrown around for Jabari is Rashard Lewis
Iām down on Davis as an NBA player tooā¦but curious what you guys think. I think Davis is that classic good college player who makes a ton of tough shots, can always find a mis-match at that level, played in a low sample/variance offense, etc. Davis doesnāt strike me as having plus athleticism, height, or shooting ability. I think he can make tough shots and do some things, but feels like a fringe NBA guy to me more than a lottery pick. (Granted, I hate Wisconsin and they never put out NBA talent soā¦)
Meanwhile I know there are similar concerns with Murray, but at least he is 6-8 and has shown himself to be a good shooter.
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Iām hoping that itās the case and let Ivey fall to the Pistons. Ivey would be my dream pick
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I think Davis is a tough shot maker in the Johnny Juzang mold. Great college player, but likely to not be athletic enough to pull off those shots at the next level.
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The pace at which he operated at Wisconsin with the ball in his hands is a lot slower than the pace at which heāll have to do it in the NBA.
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Genuine question: How does Davisā season last year compare to someone like Ayo? I always felt like Ayo was under-slotted in the draft models, and I feel like last year he kinda proved that.
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