Poole is going to be 1 year closer to large contract as a result of leaving early, and will start his contract after that a year early, etc.
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I do think you can find guys who left too early but actually doing the math on it is pretty hard. Easy ones are guys who left with eligibility and got locked into super team friendly deals. But donāt think thatās a long list. You end up having to argue that the difference between the lottery contract and what Guy X got is more than heād make in his last year in the league after discounting the time value of that $$. Interested in the argument but way beyond me to do it.
Meanwhile, sure seems like itās easy to find guys who ended up really hurting themselves by not going.
I think the player that āleaves too earlyā is someone who gets a crappy first contract, spends a good chunk of that contract not playing NBA games, and then has to scrape around looking for his second contract. In that way, you could argue Iggy fits that profile but heās a weird example because he was older, physically mature, and unlikely to develop much. Darius Morris and perhaps Charles Matthews (injury though) were tough. Even guys like DJ, Stauskas, and Moe have bounced around a lot and may not know where their next paycheck is coming fromā¦but they were first round picks so their first contract was solid.
I watch Houstan and I wonder why an NBA team would gamble on him any earlier than the second round (think Livers, Weiskamp as comps). That may still be compelling enough to leave or he could gamble on himself like Poole and hope someone takes him early.
Just to play devilās advocate, because I generally agree, Houston is very young and pretty darn tall for the role
Yep - both work in his favor. However, his height isnāt the advantage we expected when you watch him play. Maybe he gets more athletic and it will help, but it isnāt as big a factor.
I would LOVE for Juwan to set up a meeting in the offseason for Houstan to train with Duncan Robinson. Have Duncan talk about what he did to advance his game, learn to shoot on the move, learn to move without the ball, learn to be a mediocre defender, improve his release, etc. (Assuming Houstan comes backā¦)
Or even if he doesnāt. Michigan family.
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Being even a replacement level NBA player is asking a ton and since we expect young players to fail it doesnāt change how I think about leaving to find out that in fact a lot of guys did indeed fail. To me that suggests they were correct to get whatever contract they could. As for the guys that failed despite getting lottery deals, the money was never going to be better than that anyway.
The other thing this particular way of thinking about eaving too soon requires is that college is particularly good for helping guys get better. Thereās probably a study you could do at least to find guys that got good draft grades (or were mocked reasonably high) and came back to school vs those that scored similarly and didnāt. But I havenāt seen that and without it I think itās a claim without evidence and itās not obvious why my prior should be ācollege is better for development all else equalā. This is particularly true now that the G League is a thing. These guys get to play somewhere once theyāre drafted.
I have no idea if this is the right topic for this but what is the thought process/path for someone like Hunter going pro even though his stock has likely dropped since last season?
Seems like it would be in order of priority:
- Try to impress during pre-draft workouts and hope someone takes you a flier as a 2nd round pick
- Latch onto a G-League squad, continue to develop and hope you get a shot in the league at some point
- Play overseas for 1-2 years and then move to the G-League
Just trying to understand how that gives him a better shot of making it to the pros than a junior season at Michigan? It could very well be thatās the case. Seems to be the route many fringe prospects are taking. But heāll never have more exposure than he will at Michigan right? If he works on his defense and continues to play well maybe heās in a better position next year.
I know Hunter returning is almost certainly not going to happen, but just curious what the reasoning is there.
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Fwiw, Iāve heard that word on the street is that Hunterās a lean to come back. NIL is a big factor.
Edit: And Jones is also considering the same, but NIL $$ is a bit smaller of an opportunity for him right now (note his twitter activity the last month compared to before February), so itās not as enticing.
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It would have been great to have Isaiah Livers back for his senior year. But I think he felt (probably the year before as well) that to realize his aspirations in basketball, he really needed to be working on his game full-time. And working with coaches that could help him develop on a full time basis.
The year before his junior year, because he was injured, I think he probably had a question as to whether he would have a realistic āhome baseā if he went pro. His year last season was such that he was more likely to have a home base, and left. Itās looking like a good decision.
It feels like Isaiah liked school enough and his experience at Michigan enough to come back his junior year. It seems like some players - like Isaiah Todd, for example - are ready for their scholastic career to be over much sooner, and jump ship sooner. Where does Hunter fall in this continuum?
There might be several factors that might weigh into Hunterās decision, in addition to his immediate pro prospects, like:
- How is enjoying school?
- How is he enjoying his Michigan experience?
- What opportunities does the NIL program afford him?
Iām sure most of us fans are hoping that the benefits of staying might be enough to entice him to stay another year; I know I am hoping.
Plus, there is the potential benefit of playing with some of these freshman who will have a year of experience under their belt.
Weāll see soon enough, Iām sure!
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Isaiah did come back for his senior yearā¦
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I think he means the extra year of eligibility due to COVID. He technically could have come back this year right? He started the same year as Eli so Iām pretty sure thatās correct
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Great insight, I know these decisions are definitely a lot more complex than it maybe seems to us on the surface. This is their lives after all. Thatās why I completely understand why someone like Mike Smith didnāt come back for a super senior season, I think he got all he could get out of the college experience and was ready to move on. Probably a decent decision for him as well seeing as (I think) heās getting regular time in the G-League. Not putting up the stats that scream call up but heās at least contributing and developing his game.
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I think thatās right. If you look at guys like Walton, Stauskas, Simpson, Smith they all decided to try #2 on your list instead of #3. I think thatās changed in the last few years as G-League money has gone up and playing internationally during a pandemic (and various other world crisis) has gotten more complicated.
The good news (I hope) is that if NIL levels the playing field with the GL a bit thereās little evidence that the GL is a better path to getting into the pros. Theoretically youāre part of some NBA organization so they know you, monitor you, coach you, etc. while also being able to treat you like a full time employee and ignore things like classes and social life. Youāre also one emergency call away when a team has a rash of injuries or illness. The flip side is that youāre never on TV, youāre playing in empty gyms, and youāre sharing minutes with a bunch of other AAAA players trying to make the league.
To me, NIL is designed for players like Hunter. Jones is a little different because his marketability isnāt as high while also being a long-shot for the pros so he might want to start making the GL minimum or even latch on overseas. Guys like him have a hard time making the league so if he wants to try to make a living with basketball heās likely going to have to do that elsewhere. His question is whether to enjoy the ride in college another year or start making some money overseas/GL.
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Iām probably getting things mixed up with the COVID year availability. Iām sure youāre right. My point was that Isaiah Livers was probably ready to go a year earlier, but stayed in part because he was good with his college experience, and wasnāt sure of a home in the pro ranks. He was really ready to work on his game full time after last year. (It would have been great if he stayed though!)
It would have been nice to put the NIL carrot in front of our guys that left last year. Not sure if it would have made a difference, like with Mike Smith or Chaundee Brown, but it would have interesting to see if it would have affected their decisions.
Super interesting. I havenāt looked into it too closely because my assumption from the start is there was no way he would come back after talking about how close he was to staying in the draft last year.
Itās interesting though, how much can Hunterās stock change with a junior season? Iām assuming he wants to get drafted above all else and would only come back if he thought it could help increase his chances of getting drafted.
Iām trying to think of what would be a good NBA comp for him. Aaron Gray? Itās been a long time since Iāve seen him play so I could be way off.
Livers got the ideal 2nd round deal. It was a clear commitment for multiple years from the Pistons, not just a flyer.
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Yeah itās an interesting debate - like itās easy to say that guys that go early and fail āleft too earlyā - Stauskas for a familiar example - but youād need to also argue his fate would have been different with an additional year, which is tough. One could easily argue that he was going to wash out no matter what, at least this way he made a bunch of money.
I think you need to look at a guy like Jalen Smith as a guy who left early and it really hurt him. I think heās pretty prodigiously talented, but since he was never more than a second fiddle at Maryland, he fell to the late first round, went to a team that had little use/nterest in him, never got minutes and even didnāt get his first rookie extension, as a result is going to get pennies this of season despite not really getting a crack (heās also doing pretty well with minutes in Indiana now).
So much of it is situation dependent right? Itās hard to say Phoenix is a bad development franchise (they start three of their own lottery picks on a title level team and have a fourth as their 6th man), they just really had nothing to do with him, specifically.
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Yeah, outside of just making money, going early might make more sense for a guy like Houstan in that if he gets drafted late in the first round instead of the lottery, he might be able to land in a spot such as San Antonio where the development might be just a tad bit better than the development at Kangz or Magic. Caleb needs an org to afford him time and patience because he is quite clearly a project.
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