Totally understand and I agree that’s what they are recruiting him for. I also am optimistic that as a pure shooter he is likely to reach his potential. That being said, I also listed two other elite shooters from Michigan who are tweener forwards that didn’t get picked in the first round and I am not sure what Caleb has in potential more than either of them. Another example is Joe Weiskamp, who showed a little more to his game last year and still went into he second round.
The projection that said 39 makes more sense to me and if I were advising Caleb to make his decision assuming he’s going to go in the second round and have to play his way from the G-League into the NBA similar to the guys I mentioned. That may still be attractive enough to make him go pro and there may be a team out there that takes him earlier like what happened with Poole. But that’s my uneducated take on his draft status.
And he barely got to the rim on both, they were serious struggle-dunks.
I think Houstan will be an NBA-caliber shooter, but he strikes me as a severely below-par NBA athlete, and I shudder to think when a team that was successful enough to pick in the 20’s of the draft would see fit to swallow his defensive deficiencies in order for him to get minutes.
Just a thought experiment - would you rather be taking 19 year old Caleb Houstan or 22 year old Isaiah Livers? We knew Livers was a plus shooter, and by the end of his senior year, I had a lot more comfort with his defense than Houstan’s (I think, also, his dunks and blocks would show he’s a better athlete).
I think that’s not quite the right question. NBA teams are always going to want the younger guy because they believe there is untapped potential they can develop where Livers is probably closer to who he will be. (I might point out how much better Duncan Robinson got once he reached the NBA…but regardless - age is valuable.)
The better question is this - does the 19-year old have enough potential that he’s worth drafting earlier, paying more, and investing more time in than taking a very similar 22-year old who is already more developed but lacks potential? To me - they are both similar. I’d probably approve the use of a mid second round pick on either player but not a first.
Oh I agree the youth is a trump card in Houstan’s quiver, it’s just not one I buy into here (at least I don’t buy into it for the things Caleb needs to improve). Generally speaking, players improve their skills, not so much their inherent athleticism. Caleb is a high-skill player. Other than pure strength, I’m not sure what he develops here.
I wonder if the NBA is going away from the “drafting on potential” thing. Feels like I see raw athletic types dropping in mocks the past few years and players with definable skills going up. Like “let’s make sure we get a useful player because, at the very least, they can be a tradeable asset if they’re not a superstar.”
For a “potential” shooter or some other skill that’s not specifically based on athleticism, I think NBA teams would want to see it first. Houstan has the potential to be a shooter with size, but until he starts making shots off movement, I can’t see him going as high as say… Corey Kispert, Chris Duarte or even Moses Moody did last year.
Kendall Brown is an athletic freak and, in the past, he would someone I’d see going high in the draft. But, it’s unclear whether he’ll ever shoot well enough.
I mean, Corey Kispert was 3 years older than Houstan at draft date, right? Duarte 4 years. That’s the potential that works in Caleb Houstan’s favor and it absolutely plays a part.
Potential has to do with age and development and not athleticism.
NBA has just gotten better at identifying potential in other areas outside of athleticism.
I am sure it is the same with every fanbase, but mock drafting the NBA/NFL surely isn’t in this fanbase’s wheelhouse! Especially in regards to the NBA. Every kid that leaves, they scream not ready, and more often than not, they get drafted higher than the fan GM’s projected.
But those two were drafted because they were proven shooters. Moses Moody is the only one I can think of that was drafted on potential as a shooter. Although, he’s also projected to have defensive upside. Maybe there are some big men that are drafted with the potential that they can be stretch fives. But if you’re primary role is to be a shooter, I think NBA teams will want to see it in college first. (This is different from “we think this athlete will eventually be able to shoot based on his mechanics and his FT%.”)
Well, I think Poole’s rookie year would confirm he wasn’t ready, given he was arguably the worst player in the NBA? I don’t think it’s wrong, even now, to argue that he could have waited another year and been drafted higher. The question is if it would have been worth it to him (likely not?).
He was definitely ready to begin collecting a paycheck, and it’s very often said that the NBA prefers to take a partially-developed player early and take it from there. Everything about Poole’s story, to me at least, suggests he made the right call.
Yup. Pretty simple to me. Maybe there’s an alternate reality where he got drafted by some team that didn’t develop him well, but all we’ve got to go on is this reality…
I think if you have no intentions of being a 3-4 year player in college, than starting your earnings clock earlier is better for them. JP is going to do well in his 2nd contract, and he will make bank a year early.
The downside of coming back and tanking your stock has to be accounted for. GR3 had more draft buzz after his first year than 2nd, so he ended up costing himself some money staying, and ended up washing out anyway.
As others have said, if he had been drafted earlier in the following season he might have been drafted by some team with garbage development like the Kangz or something. Houstan being drafted in the 20’s means he could be drafted by the Spurs or Nuggets.
You’re not wrong that money today is better than money tomorrow, but I think it is highly dependent on the player and NIL has tipped the scales a bit.
Poole is a unique case that GSW drafted him higher than any projections and was willing to let him play through horrible growing pains and in the G-League plus giving him a second contract. He’s earned $6M in 4 years. GR3 ended up making $11M in 7 years, so I’m not sure how much that would have changed had he left early.
As I said before, I think Houstan should assume he’s going to get drafted in the second round (hopefully by a smart franchise) and he’s going to have to work his way through the G-League to get into the rotation. He’ll get his first contract, spend a lot of it in the GL, and have to hope he can fight his way to a second contract. Then he has to balance that option against staying at Michigan, get some NIL (if he can), get stronger, have a bigger role next year, and see what happens.
