His high school teammates, Moses Moody, was 5 months younger for his class than Houstan is, and had a similar profile coming in - he was a high school catch & shooter. He scored 16 ppg at Alabama on 57% true shooting, and that was enough to get him to 14th in the draft as a “low ceiling high floor” prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. Moody was also a solid defender.
Given how far away Houstan is from that level of performance, I have an extremely hard time seeing him as a first rounder barring a screeching u-turn in season trajectory.
*Arkansas; I wholeheartedly agree. Also, Moses Moody was one of the best defenders in his draft class.
Every draft is different but Cam Thomas went late in the first round despite him being an absolute bucket getter with insane stats. Houstan isn’t even at the level of someone like GRIII who went in the 2nd round.
I have a hard time seeing him drafted in the first round. There’s really not much he’s doing right now to excite NBA teams. I really hope he comes back to Michigan next year because if he doesn’t it means he’s left to the G-league or transfered to a different school.
Yeah - I think this season has probably been extremely disappointing to this point for Caleb, and I’m sure he’s a long way away from where he saw himself being. I think that kind of disappointment can be hard for a young man to take without looking for people to blame.
Caleb Houstan | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | Michigan
Caleb Houstan has had a tough year at Michigan. He’s averaging under 10 points with a 51.2 true-shooting percentage. Generally, he hasn’t looked all that comfortable or confident when Michigan has played good teams. The speed of the game has been a bit quick, and he’s rushed some shots. He looked to have potentially turned a corner against San Diego State and Nebraska with 14 and 17 points, but he’s followed it up with 18 points on 20 shots in the next three games. Houstan isn’t a crazy athlete, but he has good feel and comfort with the ball in his hands, so he needs to be able to operate at his own pace and make things happen. Right now, he looks more like a multi-year guy, but he stays here for now given that he has shown the occasional flash.
42. New York Knicks: Moussa Diabaté | 6-10 forward | 19 years old | Michigan
Please let them come back. The saving grace to a disappointing season is that a sophomore trio of Houstan-Diabate-Bufkin sounds like a pretty solid foundation for a team.
I could easily see Christie staying at MSU for all of the historical reasons. I think the bigger question is where Houstan will see himself at the end of the year. Again, preface this by saying I hope he goes on a total tear and leads us to the tournament so he has a legit decision to make because he’s shown himself to be a star.
But…at the current trajectory where he’ll be rated a 2nd round pick at best and know that his path to the NBA is going to be to toil in the G-League trying to prove himself like Iggy/livers (best case) or Aaron Henry (worst case)…is that what he’ll want? Could he find nearly the same financial security for a year via NIL with the hopes of landing a bigger/guaranteed contract a year later?
Easy for me to say I’d stay at Michigan a second year and prove myself in front of big crowds on national TV while being the potential star of the team rather than toil in the G-League in front of empty arenas with no TV fighting for shots against a bunch of vets trying to get into the league. But you never know.
I think it’s a two fold case. Houstan has to make improvements on his game but he also has to trust Juwan to put him in the best situation to show his skills. To date I don’t think that has happened. So Houstan would have to be looking at how he would be used differently. If one of Hunter/Diabate left then he can slide to the 4. If both left he could still play the 4 but there’s an absolute huge void at the 5. Who else would be on the court with him?? There is still some basketball to be played this year but if what we have seen from Houstan continues I can see why he wouldn’t stick it out.
You don’t think Howard has put Houstan in the position to succeed? I realize he’s being asked to do a lot, but man, I see a TON of missed wide open shots and a bunch of clear lanes to the hoop that end negatively bc of lack of strength and finishing ability (two things that will improve as he gets used to the speed of the game and more time working on his body).
-Houstan is getting quality looks (although maybe not as high-quality as the ones he is providing to opponents) and they aren’t going down. In the end, shooters have to make shots, so that’s on him.
-BUT, those lanes to the hoop off those DHOs would be a lot more inviting, especially for a player who isn’t ready to finish at the rim through contact, if there were proper spacing. To me that’s not on Houstan. There’s only one other player with a clear and steady spot in the rotation who has proven he must be guarded out to the arc.
-I think nobody in particular has been put in a position to succeed due to the spacing. I haven’t listened to the pod yet – looking forward to that today – but I know that Eric and Dylan have talked previously about this offense being basically the same sets as last year. But last year you had three starters shooting 40% or above from 3, and then Franz at 35%. Is it reasonable to run that offense and expect good results with a group of players that’s this different?
He’s missing open shots, and many of them are bad misses. His lack of strength off the dribble is a big problem. Both are within his control to fix going forward - weight room would help.
But he’s also asked to do a lot due to roster. Playing the three next to Jones and Brooks + two non-shooting bigs by default requires him to 1) take a ton of shots 2) try to do things off the dribble he may not be comfortable with and 3) shoulder an entire team’s spacing burden by himself whenever Eli is on the ball. That’s a really hard spot to be put in, and it doesn’t seem like there’s any chance for that to change this season.
It will be a weird decision because if he comes back, he’s still going to be playing with a non-shooter at PG, and likely a frontcourt of non-shooters (TWill + Reed or maybe Diabate). It just seems unlikely that Houstan will be given a different role - he’ll still be asked to take a ton of shots, guard opposing 3s, and do stuff off the dribble. If he decides another year in college would help him get stronger and just prove he’s an elite shooter, maybe he comes back. But all the improvements he needs to make to get back to lottery range protections I think will fall on him personally to make, rather than any role adjustments that would help.
Well, those are all good points but let me put a slightly different spin on the same information. Would Houstan rather be in this situation where he’s getting 30 minutes a game, getting as many shots and he can get up, playing the 3 (a position he projects to in the NBA) instead of the 4, etc. Or would he rather be on a “better” team where he parks himself in the corner most of the time, he’s the 3rd or 4th option, and he’s likely to get benched when he’s in a slump?
For example, Brandon Johns struggled and got benched because there are other options. Houstan is getting to play through those struggles. If he went somewhere with other options around him he likely isn’t playing this many minutes right now and would be riding the pine with the other freshmen who aren’t ready.
On the other end of the spectrum is Adam Miller - who had a good year last year on a great team but as a freshman was asked to be a spot up shooter and be in the shadow of Ayo, Kofi, and others. He wanted to play his NBA position and do more than sit in the corner so he left.
You never know…I think Houstan is in a pretty good spot but just isn’t quite ready for what we think his ceiling is. I truly believe even more than Diabate or Hunter that coming back for his sophomore would result in Houstan blowing up.
As for next year’s roster, the idea of having Jett, Houstan, and TWill covering the two forward spots starts to look pretty attractive. There’s a little diversity of skill there, more ability to switch defensive assignments, more shooting, etc.
I’d be willing to guarantee Caleb Houston doesn’t transfer.
Also, I know he’s been somewhat underwhelming/disappointing this season, but the dude is still really really good.
There shouldn’t be any reason to want a 5-Star, better freshman in the country, and 6’8 shooter to leave after just one year on solid (a little disappointing) numbers unless it’s for the NBA.
