All this Todd talk got me curious to run a quick statistical research experiment over my lunch break.
In the last five recruiting cycles, there have been 11 players between 6’9” and 6’11”, between 180-220 pounds that 247’s composite has graded within a .003 window of where Todd’s grade currently is (.9959). My goal here was to isolate large wing-types, not centers and very good top 10-15 prospects, not automatic top five pick early entrants.
Those 11 players (with minutes played their freshman season and points/rebounds/blocks) are:
Jaden McDaniels - 33.6 MPG, 15/5/1
Matthew Hurt - 21.3 MPG, 11/3/1
Precious Achiuwa - 27.2 MPG, 14/9/2
EJ Montgomery - 15.1 MPG, 4/4/1
Simi Shittu - 26.7 MPG, 11/7/1
Jalen Smith - 26.7 MPG, 12/7/1
Kevin Knox - 32.4 MPG, 16/5/0
Jarred Vanderbilt - 17.0 MPG, 6/8/1
Wenyen Gabriel - 17.7 MPG, 5/5/1
TJ Leaf - 29.9 MPG, 16/8/1
Stephen Zimmerman - 26.2 MPG, 11/9/2
Of this list, 9 of 11 started the majority of their games as freshmen. EJ Montgomery and Jarred Vanderbilt did not start and got Calipari’d to an extent, 6 other freshmen played more minutes than Vanderbilt and 4 other freshmen played more minutes than Montgomery.
Even including those guys who weigh the numbers down, this list averaged 10.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.0 blocks per game. I believe this is a decent projection for what Todd’s first year could be like, even alongside Wagner and Livers.
I agree 100%. That said, setting up an offense with only one ball handler who is not even a true PG so that you can play a bunch of jumbo wings usually does lend itself to a great offensive team. As talented as Duke was last year, they struggled some in the half court playing the 3 big wings lineup,and that was with a true PG running the show. For the floor of what can happen when you put 5 top 100 guys in a lineup with a 2 playing point and 3 large wings who aren’t great ball handlers at the 2-4 spots, see Michigan 2007. Offensive “flow” on that team still gives me nightmares…
Just to add to this, here are the freshman year ORtg and usage rate of these players along with the percent of minutes played
Jaden McDaniels: 91.2 ORtg, 26% usage, 84.2% mins
Matthew Hurt: 114.7 ORtg, 20.7% usage, 52.6% mins
Precious Achiuwa: 94 ORtg, 28% usage, 67.5% mins
EJ Montgomery: 103.7 ORtg, 16% usage, 37.5% mins
Simi Shittu: 89.2 ORtg, 26.9% usage, 66.5% mins
Jalen Smith: 113.6 ORtg, 22.6% usage, 64.4% mins
Kevin Knox: 107 ORtg, 23.2% usage, 80.7% mins
Jarred Vanderbilt: 107.3 ORtg, 23.1% usage
Wenyen Gabriel: 106.7 ORtg, 14.5% usage, 44.3% mins
TJ Leaf: 128.2 ORtg, 21.5% usage, 72.8% mins
Stephen Zimmerman: 94.6 ORtg, 22% usage, 51.8% mins
So Zimmerman, Shittu, and McDaniels (so far) can be safely put in the “oof” category of efficiency. Leaf, and Smith, and Hurt are the most efficient, but none of them even fall into the “major contributor” category that Kenpom defines as 24-28% usage (>28% qualifies as ‘go-to guy’). I think based on that archetype the shrug dude emoji really fits well. A lot of nice, significant contributors, but it generally doesn’t go well if they’re relied on for a lot of usage.
For comparison…
Isaiah Livers this year: 121.9 ORtg, 17.6% usage, 83.3% mins
Assuming no Christopher… I think the hope would be that you have a pretty balanced offensive approach next year. Livers and Brooks tick up a few points to get to around 20. Maybe Dejulius takes a big jump, Castleton/Dickinson take on a moderate amount of usage as pick and roll finishers.I feel like 22-24% usage is the sweet spot for Todd. If he’s taking more than that, he’s probably not getting great shots.
Although I do dream of a 5-4 pick and pop between Todd and Livers.
Gonna be tough for any player of that archetype/ranking to take on huge usage and be efficient as a freshman. Since you used Livers as a comparison, he’s only at 17% so he’s not even close to a “significant contributor” by that standard. As long as Todd is not 24%+ usage, I think there’s a very good chance he is efficient.
Excluding the possibility of Livers being in the NBA, even this season he is not over 20% USG. I don’t see him getting much higher than that. It’s very likely Todd eclipses 20% if he is at Michigan, almost a guarantee. Thus Todd should be the easy choice here.
I think Todd probably has a higher percentage of playing overseas than Livers playing in the NBA next year. Nevertheless, the poll is assuming that both are at Michigan next year. I can’t see Livers using over 20%.
