2020 - F - Isaiah Todd (Commit)

I thought “positionless basketball” had arrived at Michigan? :man_shrugging:

That’s really not true, at least not for me. I’m seeing comments all over the place about how dominant Todd will be and whatnot. I recently saw a comment about how great Todd looked over the weekend.

I do cringe a bit when I see these because it fails to take into account how raw Todd actually is and how he’s NOT actually dominating his competition in high school. People are watching highlights, but fail to take into account things like the fact that Todd actually had a very subpar weekend (as he admitted himself on Instagram). I’ll admit I’ve probably done more “driving down expectations” for Todd moreso than anyone on this board, because I’ve followed him more than I’ve followed any recruit and I wouldn’t want people to be surprised in the case that he does struggle.

I believe I read somewhere that 247 does rankings based off of NBA potential (correct me if I’m wrong), and that’s a big reason why Todd is #12-14 or something in their rankings. However, in my opinion, Todd is nowhere close to being the #12-14 most impactful senior in high school. There WILL be a lot of transition costs in order to develop Todd from what he is now, which is probably, again in my opinion, a borderline top 50 player in high school, into legitimately a player that can dominate college and play in the NBA.

Lol borderline top 50 player? Now you’ve gone too far. Dude is a unicorn with what he can do at that size. You are being far too nitpicky about what HS players should look like (and you’ve admitted to following him more than any other recruit so you’re probably being overly critical). It’s easy to nitpick any HS kids game if you’re looking for reasons to do so. Hell, I have seen Emoni Bates play a couple times and he wasn’t very efficient (and I heard he wasn’t last night either in front of all those coaches). Doesn’t mean I can’t see the enormous potential there. Give me Todd over nearly every PF I have seen this year.

If all you care about is HS production, then you must have also thought that Foster Loyer should’ve been a five star for what he was able to accomplish in HS.

3 Likes

Positionless basketball doesn’t mean that you can play guys who can’t guard the opponent who plays at their position. Obviously, some of these guys might go to the league, but from among Garza, Wesson, and Cockburn, which one is 6’10" 210 pound Isaiah Todd guarding in the low block…and that doesn’t include other guys like Tillman, Oturo, Jackson-Davis, Smith, Reuvers, etc. who are more inside/outside guys. Mo Wagner (a guy somewhat comparable to Todd in the position less basketball context) was not the greatest defensive center on the planet, but at least he had 2 years of college weight training, and defensive principles and 30 pounds when he tried guarding guys like that. Besides that, Mo was really, really good offensively as a junior and even later in his sophomore year–as good as Todd is, I wouldn’t expect that level of offensive production to make up for defensive liabilities.

Maybe it would work. I remain skeptical that we’d see Todd at the 5 in anything other than an emergency situation.

1 Like

Franz Wagner would be that guy IMO, assuming that someone like Christopher doesn’t come.

And if Franz Wagner is a 25% usage wing, why can’t he play the 2?

4 Likes

because Josh Christopher is playing the 2

8 Likes

Saying Todd will dominate the ball and Todd will be dominant are different things. :wink:

I have not watched any of his HS games in full (but watched just about every possession of his EYBL stuff) and it can be tough to separate context when evaluating guys HS film based on who is around them and who they are playing.

1 Like

It all probably depends on whether he can defend the position and who else we have. I imagine if we land Dickinson, he starts at the five from day one.

And Dickinson probably has a minutes ceiling of … 20-25 minutes? as a freshman? And that plays into “closing” with Todd at the 5 to be more versatile.

3 Likes

Is Dickinson the type who can come in and start as a freshman, or would he need a year as a 10-15mpg backup?

Castleton is certainly no guarantee to lock down the starting job.

Because he’s not playing alongside X at the 1. It’s one thing to create in the half-court, which I think Franz is capable of doing alongside a ball dominant PG or two primary ball handlers at the guard slots, quite another to be the secondary ball handler on a team where the primary ball handler is not X, but rather a guy with a much looser handle.

That’s my view. I certainly could be wrong–as you recall, I was on the BQ train in terms of disagreeing that Cowan should be a pre-season All Big Ten selection, and that one’s not working out so well for me. I don’t see a 6’9" Franz at the 2 going forward offensively, much less defensively, where I think the issues might be greater.

Well no, I don’t believe that. I still think players should be ranked based off of their NBA potential.

I knew the backlash I was going to take for saying stuff like this, but it’s a firm belief from watching a handful of his games in its entirety: Isaiah Todd has the potential to be the best and most impactful player in his class and his totally justified in his ranking, but right now his impact is at a borderline top-50 rate.

You might be right in that I’m critiquing him too much because I’ve seen a lot of him, I’ll admit. Right now he is a subpar rebounder for his size, subpar on ball defender, he has turnover issues, decision making issues, and efficiency issues. However, the amount of difficult shots he makes along with his athleticism alone propels him towards unicorn territory that is rare even in the NBA. For that reason I’ll repeat what I said, he’s absolutely a top prospect, but merely a top-50 high school player in terms of impact in my opinion because he is so RAW. This may or may not be a good thing for UM, depending on how long he stays in college.

I saw a few mentions of Dickinson above. I believe Hunter Dickinson (while I’ve only seen one of his games), is a better high school player than Isaiah Todd, for comparison.

What on earth Michigan’s offense looks like next year without Zavier (I would assume something very different) remains to be seen. I think that it will have to be shaped to the personnel on the roster. Simpson has over 3x as many assists as anyone on the roster right now. There’s no one that can really play his role.

2 Likes

Josh Christopher do you hear this? Come dominate the ball. DDJ will bring it up and go spot up. He and Franz and maybe Livers will create lots of room for you, and Todd will be your Batman OK?

3 Likes

Gotcha. I can see that.

What about Castleton? Dickinson is a nice prospect, but he’s on the slow side, and, IMO, will need to adjust to the speed and physicality of the game.

Yeah, the thing with Dickinson is that he’s probably immediately able to make an impact in his way but there will also be games where you can’t really afford to play him heavy minutes IMO.

1 Like

Ever since we got Todd I’ve been hoping endlessly for Christopher. I think having Christopher on the team would benefit Todd so much. I would believe that it would alleviate Todd from having to create for himself, and instead defer as an efficient player who feeds off dunks and three pointers.

While Todd had some success in the second half of the game on Saturday playing PG, from what I’ve seen, he’s struggled more often than not as a ball handler, especially when there is any sort of pressure, or when he is forced to use his left hand. On the other hand, quite literally no one can stop him when a teammate puts him in a position to make something happen.

I’ve posted too much on this thread and can sense my own annoyance LOL. I’m actually a student at UM, and minutes ago, X just walked past my desk with a girl in Mason Hall while I had a tab open looking at his stats. That’s when I knew I was too obsessed with our hoops squad. :laughing:

9 Likes

This is quite encouraging. Hopefully he doesn’t have to be the main on ball guy for us, and I imagine he won’t unless a worst case scenario happens. But if he’s just attacking closeouts/mismatches he could be efficient and deadly.